The country has also experienced a resurgence of Sunni-Alawite violence in the northern city of Tripoli. Meanwhile, Sunnis in northern Lebanon have grown increasingly sympathetic to the cause of predominantly Sunni Syrian opposition forces. There have been growing accusations of involvement by Sunni political figures with ties to the March 14 forces in helping to arm and finance Syrian insurgent groups. There have also been increasing reports of Lebanese Sunni militants and Islamist fighters crossing into Syria to join the battle against Assad.
By contrast, members of the pro-Syrian March 8 alliance-another cross-sectarian coalition led by the majority of the country's main Shiite factions, including Hezbollah, and part of the country's Christians-have largely remained strong supporters of the Assad regime. While there are concerns that Assad might not survive the current cycle of unrest, there are many that continue to believe that the Alawite-led regime-aided by Iran at the regional level and Russia and China at the international level-will weather the storm and rebuff both internal and external challenges to its autonomy and ability to rule Syria.
Assuming that Syria's crisis would be short-lived, in June 2011 Hezbollah sought to mobilize the country's Palestinian refugee population in an effort to escalate tensions on the UN Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel as a means of shifting attention from Syria. These efforts were thwarted in part by the LAF, which preempted any major flare-up along the demarcation line. While initially minimizing its footprint to avoid escalating Lebanese Sunni-Shiite tensions over Syria, there is growing evidence that Hezbollah is far more active in the Syria conflict, at least in an advisory role in training and equipping the country's Alawite sect and other Assad loyalists and, at most, engaging in active combat against mainly Sunni Syrian insurgents.
Meanwhile, the country's depleted Christian political forces-divided between the two coalitions-and the Druze led by Walid Jumblatt are wary of any Lebanese intervention in Syria's internal conflict. This is in part due to the reality that the political tug-of-war in Beirut, the struggle for Syria, and broader regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran all straddle Sunni-Shiite dividing lines.
Hezbollah's Christian allies are uneasy about the group's evolving and increasingly aggressive role in supporting the Assad regime. Christians in the March 14 alliance are not faring much better: Lebanon's northern districts-a hotbed for Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other militant cross-border activity-and the growing stature of the country's Sunni Salafists have made them similarly uncomfortable. The Druze and other minority sects also find themselves in a similarly untenable position between a proverbial Sunni rock and a Shiite hard place.
Despite a growing willingness by elements within both the March 14 and March 8 coalitions to compete actively in Syria, neither has shown large-scale support for an irreversible Lebanese role in the Syria crisis. Furthermore, neither grouping has taken the dangerous next step of trying to actively redraw the internal balance of power of Lebanon. However, this does not mean that neither side is exposing Lebanon to risks. The assumption that Assad's rule may be finite and the role Hezbollah is believed to be playing in support of that rule have led to growing calls for Hezbollah's disarmament, a de facto call for shifting the internal political and security balance of power in Lebanon. By contrast, the Sunni community's emerging role in the Syria conflict has been interpreted by Damascus as a de facto declaration of war on the Assad regime.
Managing Syria's Slow-Motion Tsunami
An aggressive LAF security response and strong international support have given the Mikati government some much needed breathing room and political legitimacy in the wake of the death of General al-Hassan. However, neither solves the underlying pressures, the reality that Hezbollah will remain nothing short of Lebanon's Sparta, or that the scale of unrest in Syria poses real questions about the future stability of Lebanon regardless of the internal balance of power.
In the end, the attack attests to the stark reality that Lebanon's opposing political forces cannot escape the negative effects of competing on either side of Syria's civil conflict. Syria and Lebanon are tied together by geography, demographics, unstable regional alignments, and deepening Sunni-Shiite regional tensions. In addition, competing local political forces have yet to succeed and win outright in successive struggles for power in Lebanon. Any scenario where the country's leading Sunni and Shiite political forces miscalculate at home or in Syria is likely to have catastrophic consequences for the future stability of Lebanon and the broader Levant.
Despite the bombing and the scale of polarization in Lebanon, there are still forces in both coalitions that favor stability, even if it is precarious and uncertain. These include members of leading Sunni, Shiite, Druze, and Christian factions who recognize that any sitting government would have to try to distance the country from the Syria conflict. Lebanon's competing factions must remain focused on the reality than none of them can win decisively and that finding ways to insulate Lebanon from Syrian instability is the sectarian equivalent of discretion as the better part of valor.
Ultimately, Lebanon's future hinges on how events in Syria take shape in the coming months. Despite UN and Arab League efforts toward a short-term cease-fire, there is every reason to expect continued hostilities and long-term instability in the conflict, with as yet no tangible signs of a lasting resolution. The longer Syria's crisis persists, the more critical it will become for Lebanon and the international community, led by the United States, to minimize future spillover effects from what may be years of instability in the Levant.
Supporting Lebanon's military and security forces will prove to be especially important. The LAF in particular has and will continue to play a critical role in terms of internal security, safeguarding borders, and insulating Lebanon from regional instability. In late September 2012, the Lebanese cabinet announced its intentions to raise at least $1.6 billion-possibly through a donor conference-over five years to bolster the resources and capabilities of the LAF to secure Lebanon from regional instability. While it remains unclear how recent unrest will impact the effort, that any sitting government in Lebanon would endorse such a move is a testament to how destabilizing the Syria crisis has become.
