Most important of all, the EU has taken away from the nation-state and its capitals the key to participate in economic globalization. Regions no longer need to go through the capital to request changes in rules of the game or help in accessing foreign markets. Regions have set up embassies and lobbying associations to promote export and attract investment abroad. For example, in Washington, a Scottish Affairs Office implements Scotland's plan for engaging with the US. To drive home the point, the office flags its Gaelic name, Riaghaltas na h-Alba. Or the Scots work via the European Union with Scotland's European Union Office implementing an action plan for engagement. If Scotland, Catalonia or Lombardy want to safeguard their interests in global negotiations, the negotiators are no longer found in London, Madrid or Rome, but in Brussels. Sure enough, politicians and civil servants in the capitals still want, indeed crave, serving as the channel to the EU for all regional preferences, but this posture increasingly falls on deaf ears. The view in London that Scotland's interests should be weighed against interests put forward by other parts of Britain doesn't matter much north of the border.
The wave of austerity rolling through all of Europe reinforces the separatist sentiment. During the industrial age, in particular when the welfare state was introduced, the center or capital was shuffling large sums of money around via taxes and welfare payments to and from the regions. Then, it seemed quite the gamble to cut this lifeline. Now such fiscal transfers are falling by the wayside as the state pulls back from the super welfare state. Regions increasingly view themselves as capable, perhaps even better equipped, of competing without the support of the nation-state, and find it less attractive to be part of an acrimonious redistribution struggle.
The European Union is on the radar screen. Not only do the nation-states shave fiscal transfers, but current plans for a fiscal union augur a stronger role for the EU. Plans are being drafted to give the EU some kind of veto over national budgets, further transferring power from the capitals of the nation-states to the EU, stimulating regions to strike their own deals with the supranational political leadership. The proposed banking union works the same way. The regions do not see why their interests and the negotiating about a European supervisory body should be controlled by the nation-state. They may or may not have common interests with banks in other parts of the nation-state, but it cannot be taken for granted, and in some cases they may fear being held hostage to nation-state policies disregarding their interests.
It's no coincidence that Scotland stands first in the queue to have a go at secession. Britain's conservative party, the leading coalition partner in the British government, toys with the idea of a referendum about continued membership of the EU. Polls indicate that in the UK as a whole 51 percent of the voters favor leaving the EU with only 34 percent preferring to stay. Inside the conservative party 83 percent want a referendum, and 70 percent would vote to leave. But Scotland has always voted overwhelmingly with the Labour Party and abhors the risk of being forced out of the EU by a political party that enjoys limited support among the Scots. The prospect of the conservative party taking Britain out of the EU combined with Scotland leaving Britain to join the EU might have once seemed like pure fantasy, but no more. Breakup may be the most realistic scenario.
The Scots will vote yes or no to stay in the UK in 2014. The next general election of the British parliament is set for 2015. But if Scotland decides to leave the UK, all dates and plans are up in the air. The vote in Scotland may advance the parliamentary election, giving the EU referendum a dominating role.
