Moreover, the American public is divided. They support a combination of budget cuts and tax increases, especially for the wealthy. By two to one, 44 percent to 22 percent, Americans say that raising taxes on incomes above $250,000 would help the economy rather than hurt it. At the same time, 56 percent oppose reductions in defense spending. There is strong resistance to major tinkering with government-funded entitlement programs, the national pension scheme and health insurance for the elderly - to reduce the deficit; 51 percent of Americans say that maintaining such benefits is more important than deficit reduction.
On other economic issues, such as trade, there is greater clarity as to the trajectory of US policy in the wake of the election. Obama is committed to completing the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement with nations surrounding the Pacific basin. In 2013, he's expected to launch a free-trade agreement with Europe. And, if his campaign rhetoric is any clue, he'll continue Washington's "get tough" policy with China on trade issues. But all US presidents talk tougher on China, and earlier on Japan, than they actually act.
Obama will have mixed public support. Americans assume that free-trade agreements kill jobs and undermine wages, which could make a Trans-Pacific deal particularly hard to sell to Congress. At the same time, an October 2012 Pew Research Center survey found that by 49 percent to 42 percent, Americans preferred being tough in dealing with China on economic issues over building a strong relationship. Backing for this more hardnosed approach increased nine percentage points since March 2011.
The Obama reelection also has strategic implications. During the campaign, Obama promised that Iran would not produce a nuclear weapon on his watch. Now that he will continue as president, he has the support of the American people to be tough with Tehran. A majority, 56 percent, want him to take a firm stand against Iran's nuclear program, even at the cost of a military conflict, according to a Pew Research Center survey in October. But less than half of Democrats and young people agree, signaling a potential break with his core constituency in any future confrontation.
Obama will lack public support for such action among many key nations around the world. There is almost universal opposition to the Iranian nuclear-weapons program across the 21 nations surveyed by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project in spring 2012. But among those who oppose Iran acquiring a nuclear arsenal, Americans' support for the use of military force to halt Iranian efforts exceeds that in any other country: 63 percent of Americans would support military action, compared with 51 percent in France and Britain, 50 percent in Germany, 40 percent in Japan, 30 percent in China and 24 percent in Russia.
The absence of strong international backing for a strike on Iran only complicates the new president's ability to build and hold together a united diplomatic front in any effort to deny Iran nuclear weapons.
Obama can be expected to continue the US-led efforts to fight terrorism, which enjoy 75 percent support among the American public. Drone strikes are supported by 62 percent of Americans, including 74 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Democrats, and are likely to be one of the principal methods of prosecuting that war. But people in most other nations take a sharply negative view, portending difficulties.
American elections are consequential events, not just for the United States, but for the world. President Obama's reelection is likely to bring to a head a number of long-smoldering economic and strategic concerns. He has a mandate to govern, but his mandate on specific issues is far from clear, facing opposition both at home and abroad. His biggest challenge may be to bridge the divides among the American people and with America's allies.
