The government remains convinced that it can pass reforms that in the long run allow it to converge with other eurozone economies. In November 2012 they passed an austere budget, and although the PS is no longer "in partnership" with the coalition, it will abstain rather than vote against austerity measures.
There is, however, increasing room for criticism of the current trajectory. Although far from mainstream, some credible voices have called for leaving the euro to be considered (especially on the left). Non-mainstream parties, such as the communist PCP and the BE (Left Bloc), have voiced concerns about membership of the single currency.
The broader picture is that Portugal is still trying to demonstrate its desire and ability to take part in further European integration projects, for fear of being marginalised if it fails, against a backdrop of discussions about those projects being the probable solution to the crisis. For Portugal, meeting the requirements of the reform programme serves to buy time until the necessary political conditions exist, in the EU, for a joint response to the European crisis that will also ameliorate the situation at home.
The European future
The crisis has changed the course of the strategic debate in Portugal, where, in effect, political actors had avoided public controversy over foreign policy priorities, including European Integration policy. There is a nostalgic element to the debate. The nationalist right wants Portuguese interests to be at the forefront of foreign policy, while the radical left has campaigned for an alliance of the "debtor countries" against the "creditor countries" as a new version of the international class struggle. More moderate voices have openly criticised the current generation of European leaders for their failure to live up to their forebears and deal decisively with the crisis.
The centre-right government's foreign policy shows a renewed interest in bilateral relations beyond the EU, for instance with Brazil and Angola and China. The importance of the Lusophone world and the Portuguese diaspora has also been emphasised. These tendencies fit in with the general "renationalisation" of foreign policy evident in many EU member states.
However, the European consensus amongst the Portuguese elites continues to prevail, and the positions in favour of Portugal's withdrawal from the single currency remain isolated and marginal. All recognise that returning to the status quo ante may be impractical, with the EU transforming itself in response to its own internal crisis and the wider transition in the international system.
Portuguese interests would be well served by some kind of partial mutualisation of sovereign debt, and Portugal is committed to strengthening the position of the European Commission in the emerging balance between the European institutions. It is also committed to safeguarding the rules of areas of integration such as the Schengen Agreement and the gradual convergence of immigration policies, as well as Permanent Structured Cooperation in the framework of the Common Security and Defence Policy. There is wariness about Germany's leadership position and its obsession with monetary stability, but also about the tendencies of other leading members (for instance the French passion for the state and the British disinterest in integration). Portugal therefore sees a valuable continuing European role for "middle" powers that are engaging in European affairs and able to contribute to effective compromises on key issues within the European Union.
Portugal, whose geographic centrality in the transatlantic community can compensate for its relative marginality in Europe, has a vital interest not only in the continuity of the alliance between the Atlantic democracies, but also in ensuring the natural complementarity between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the EU in regional and international security, and in strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy in common defence and security.
Despite its current crisis, Portugal therefore sees a constructive and engaged role for itself in the European Union as it readjusts to deal with its own crisis and the wider global picture. Its transatlantic orientation and global links should prove useful to an EU in this changing world. The importance of retaining such a role within a European core that is further integrated is also widely recognised within Portugal. It is, after all, a small country that faces considerable long term challenges if it is to converge economically with the stronger members of the eurozone. Although it has experienced protests over recent months and an increase in debate over Portugal's position within the European project, the country's pro-Europeanism is as resilient as it tries to overcome the challenges of the euro crisis as it was when it tried to overcome the legacy of authoritarianism.
