That Male's move surprised New Delhi is an understatement. The Indian defense minister was in Maldives in October, ostensibly strengthening security ties. At that time, the two sides decided to elevate defense cooperation: New Delhi is stationing a Defence Attaché in Male, extending deployment of its ALH Dhruv helicopter by two more years, providing training to the Maldivian Air Wing, positioning an Indian Navy Afloat Support Team to train Maldivian naval personnel and providing assistance for surveillance of the Exclusive Economic Zone. New Delhi and Male underscored these measures as sign of a united front against the challenges of terrorism and non-state actors.
India refused to take sides when Nasheed, the first democratically elected president of Maldives, was ousted from power and immediately reached out to the new President, assuring him of continuing cooperation. The reason is simple: India simply cannot afford to alienate the government in Male given China's growing reach. The president of Maldives was in China in October when Beijing announced a $500 million package of economic assistance for Male. New Delhi views Maldives as central to the emerging strategic landscape in the Indian Ocean.
India had always viewed Maldives as important for maintaining security in the Indian Ocean region, but attempts by Beijing to expand its footprint in Maldives and the region have raised the stakes for New Delhi. China has also been busy forging special ties with other island nations on India's periphery including Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Mauritius.
China's attempt to gain a foothold in the Indian Ocean came into stark relief last year when reports emerged of an offer from Seychelles - another strategically located island nation in the Indian Ocean - to China for a base to provide relief and resupply facilities to the People's Liberation Army Navy. Though promptly denied by Beijing, the offer underscored the changing balance of power in the region. India has traditionally been the main defense provider for Seychelles - providing armaments and training to its Peoples' Defence Forces, or SPDF. India extended a $50 million line of credit and $25 million grant to Seychelles in 2012 in an attempt to cement strategic ties.
China has been proactive in courting Seychelles since former Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the island nation in 2007. Much to India's consternation, Beijing now participates in training SPDF and provides military hardware. China has expanded military cooperation with Seychelles, providing two Y-2 turboprop aircrafts for surveillance of the economic exclusion zone.
The Chinese defense minister was in Sri Lanka in October to offer support worth $100 million for various welfare projects in northern and eastern Sri Lanka, areas beset with Tamil insurgency. At a time when domestic political constraints have made it difficult for New Delhi to reach out to Colombo, Beijing has been quick to fill that vacuum. Even Mauritius, the security of which is virtually guaranteed by Indian naval presence, can't resist the lure of Beijing funds.
With the rise in the military capabilities of China and India, the two are increasingly rubbing against each other; China expands its presence in the Indian Ocean region and India makes its presence felt in East and Southeast Asia. In this context, Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid recently suggested that India must accept "the new reality" of China's presence in areas it considers exclusive, seeming acknowledgement that both the South Asian and Indian Ocean regions are rapidly being shaped by the Chinese presence.
China's rising profile in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region isn't news. What's significant is the diminishing role of India and the rapidity with which New Delhi has ceded strategic space to Beijing in regions traditionally considered India's periphery. This quiet assertion of China has allowed various smaller countries to play China off against India. Most states in the region now use the China card to balance against India's predominance. Forced to exist between two giant neighbors, the smaller states have responded with a careful balancing act. The recent spat between New Delhi and Male merely reflects the evolving ground realities in the Indian Ocean region.
