Clinton, Campbell and then Obama himself were exemplary in their pattern of travel to Asia. In Asia Woody Allen's insight is intensely true: 90 per cent of success is just showing up. But for all the Obama administration's talk of the pivot to Asia, its Asia team, beyond Clinton and Campbell, is very thin.
Who will be the Asia champions in the second Obama administration? Kerry, though he served in Vietnam in the military, is the son of diplomats and spent a portion of his childhood in Germany. He seems a classic Atlanticist - a modern Dean Acheson. Beyond an interest in reconciliation with Vietnam, he has no signature Asia issues. Those close to him say he is susceptible to the European argument that Europeans had their feelings hurt by Obama's Asia pivot.
There are indications Kerry will make the Middle East peace process his priority. Previous secretaries of state who have done that, such as Bill Clinton's Warren Christopher and James Baker, who served under Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, were drawn away from Asia as a result, with Christopher especially almost criminally negligent in his attention.
The Hagel appointment seems to be less about projecting US influence than managing inevitable defence budget cuts.
Tom Donilon, the National Security Adviser, has little direct experience of Asia and is a super-dove on China. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is an army man, whereas the Pacific is a navy and air force theatre. John Brennan, the new CIA chief, has a counter-terrorism background not intimately related to East Asia.
Clinton, and Obama's first two defence secretaries, Robert Gates and Leon Panetta, were the very embodiment of tough-minded realists, with a deep knowledge of Asia. Kerry is loquacious, but how hard-headed is he, and how much does he care about Asia?
One critical indicator will be who he appoints as assistant secretary of state for East Asia. This position has been occupied by some of the most important figures in American diplomacy. Though an assistant secretary is notionally several rungs down the power ladder, this position is the key face of US diplomacy in Asia and often Washington's main strategic thinker about Asia. Campbell was so effective because of his deep knowledge of Asia, larger-than-life personality, endless energy, diamond-hard mind, sense of strategic realities (he had previously served in the Pentagon) and closeness to Clinton.
The last time the position was filled by someone without a strong Asian background was when Christopher Hill was assistant secretary in the second Bush administration. Hill came from working on the Balkans and brought some of his Balkans team with him. But you just cannot work effectively in Asia without deep knowledge, a vast network of contacts and wide experience. Hill, though an able man and always good to Australia, was hopeless.
There are reports Kerry asked Campbell to stay on, but this seems to have been an offer only for a short extension. In any event, Campbell is leaving. Asia's enormous opportunities, and its enormous dangers (viz China-Japan hostility now playing out) will compel US attention. Does the new Obama administration have the personnel, and the commitment, to rise to the challenge?
