Mutual reduction of patrols: Both nationsshould begin by decreasing frequency of patrols, limiting them to white-hulled, non-military ships. Both sides should ultimately commit to restrain landings of activists - as both governments have attempted to do - and refrain from any construction on the islands. On the Chinese side, restraint also entails not sending State Oceanic Administration airplanes into the area. Japan does not have Coast Guard aircraft that can intercept these Chinese planes; its only response is to use military aircraft from Okinawa, as happened in December. Air patrols increase the chance of lives being lost in an accident.
Open talks to implement the 2011 China-Japan agreement to establish a maritime crisis management mechanism: Working out the details will take time, but the fact that both governments recognize the need for such a mechanism could restore calm and rebuild confidence. China has military hotlines with Russia, South Korea and the United States to manage potential escalation risks. Tokyo has repeatedly asked for such hotline in high-level political and diplomatic talks, only to be met with a Chinese response that the time is not appropriate. If not now, when?
Mutual agreement on a public diplomacy ceasefire: Both Tokyo and Beijing have made their respective positions abundantly clear, with formal government reports outlining their positions as well as press conferences and exchanges of diplomatic talking points. The two sides are now talking past each other, instead addressing their respective domestic audiences and pleading their respective cases to international actors appalled at the prospect of China and Japan risking military conflict over tiny rocks. Repetition only serves to inflame domestic opinion and strengthen the other side's resolve. A ceasefire in public exchanges could calm tensions and give quiet diplomacy a chance.
There is very little that the US or the international community can do. The Abe-Obama Summit reaffirmed existing US and Japanese policy positions on the Senkakus. The unstated bottom line, given the stakes involved for the world's three largest economies, is a call for actions that support peaceful management of the region.
The key question, of course, is, "Who goes first?" Reaching an accommodation is the province of diplomats working on behalf of strong and committed political leaders. Although Chinese Party Secretary Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Abe have taken assertive positions, both also appear to understand the larger stakes involved in the bilateral relationship. Both may be looking for a way to move beyond exchanges of well-worn talking points. Initial actions to de-escalate the dispute need not be publicly announced, but must be reciprocated.
Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is a new stability, where both sides limit the frequency, size and duration of patrols to reinforce their claims and employ only paramilitary forces in a predictable and non-provocative manner. Each side has its own understanding of the status quo; neither will acknowledge change based on the other's air and naval patrols.
Once political traction has been reestablished, it may be possible to deal with the islands in a manner that befits their actual insignificance. For now, de-escalation is the better part of valor and of national interest. Farther down the road, creative political solutions may become possible. Imagine a future summit in which Chinese and Japanese political leaders simultaneously divest sovereignty and establish the islands as an International Nature and Wildlife Preserve.
