China's involvement in the peace process began in earnest when, on 19 January, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying visited Burma and met with Thein Sein as well as General Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Fu, known for her plain-speaking style in diplomacy, reportedly made it clear that China wanted fighting in Kachin State to stop. From 1994 to 2011, the KIA had a ceasefire agreement with the government, but that broke down over disagreement about Burma's governance, whether it should be a federal union or a centralized state with no real autonomy for the ethnic areas.
Chinese-sponsored peace talks were held in Ruili in Yunnan Province 3 February. Beijing sent a senior official, Luo Zhaohui, former ambassador to Pakistan and now director general of the Department of Asian Affairs at the Foreign Ministry, to observe the process. A second round of talks at Ruili, 11 March, was attended by Wang Yingfan, another high-ranking minister of foreign affairs.
The Chinese intervention in Burma's civil war casts doubts on the feasibility of foreign-mediation efforts - as does the proliferation of western organizations which have turned peace in Burma into a virtual industry and, for some, a lucrative business. The Norwegian-initiated Myanmar Peace Support Initiative has been followed by similar efforts by the Switzerland-based Center for Humanitarian Dialog, the Nippon Foundation of Japan and EU-sponsored initiatives through the Myanmar Peace Center, an entity close to the Burmese government. The Institute for Security and Development Policy, a Swedish think tank, also has EU funding for "national reconciliation and peace-building" with ethnic groups, while Pacta, a Finnish NGO, looks for opportunities as well. The Phnom Penh-based Center for Peace and Conflict Studies is involved, too, as are at least six individuals with their own private agendas. Millions of dollars and euros are at stake in these efforts.
The outcome has been overlapping initiatives, rivalry among organizations - and more often than not a lack of understanding by inexperienced "peacemakers" of the conflicts' root causes. This is not to say that the Chinese approach has been more sophisticated. On Radio Beijing, Chinese academics have suggested that the main problem is that the Kachins and other ethnic minorities are not getting their fair share of local revenues - or turning decades of struggle for recognition of ethnic identity into a quest for mere economic benefit. The Kachins and others are quick to point out that Burmese government negotiators at the peace talks have no mandate to discuss political issues such as federalism. Thus, the talks are little more than talks about talks with little prospect of success.
The Chinese approach may also lack cohesion. In December, several closed-door meetings were held in Beijing where Yunnan-based academics argued that the Chinese government should close the border and collaborate only with the Burmese authorities to crush the KIA, thus improving the strained relationship with Naypyidaw. Foreign ministry officials reportedly warned that such a one-sided view could lead to an influx of Kachin refugees into Yunnan and possibly attacks on Chinese businesses and individuals.
Moreover, China must take into account that Yunnan province has more than 130,000 ethnic Kachins. When the KIA was under fierce attack by helicopter gunships, fighter jets and heavy artillery in January, several thousand Chinese Kachins travelled by truck and bus to the border to show solidarity with brethren on the other side. More Chinese Kachins were stopped at checkpoints before the border. Given the sensitivity of China's handling of ethnic issue as seen in regions such Tibet and Xinjiang, Beijing cannot afford to antagonize yet another minority people, even if it is relatively small.
With both the West and China demonstrating ineptitude in refereeing Burma's ethnic conflict, the internal wars that have plagued Burma since independence from Britain in 1948 appear nowhere near a solution.
