Snowden supporters have more than mere abstract concerns. Martin Lee, founder of the Hong Kong Democratic Party, complains that China snoops on Hong Kong communications in an even more intrusive way and shares any embarrassing or damaging information they find about Hong Kong's Democrats with pro-Beijing publications.
It may be that the relatively small turnout Saturday will be all of the effective moral support Snowden gets. However, the July 1 anniversary is fast approaching, and it is certainly conceivable that it could turn into a massive anti-government and anti-Beijing rally with "freedom of speech" thrown in for good measure.
Ever since 2003, July 1, a date that is supposed to commemorate the glorious return of Hong Kong to China after 140 years of colonial oppression, has turned into a day to protest against the government and Beijing (the fact that it is a holiday and the weather is usually good doesn't hurt).
Last year's demonstration was the largest since the epic 2003 march. The annual vigil to commemorate the dead in the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown has also been growing instead of receding into memory, even though it is now almost a quarter century after the event.
All of the elements that made 2003's demonstration so huge are at play this year: a hugely unpopular local chief executive (chosen last year by a stacked college of 1,200 electors), plus growing irritation with Beijing, widening income inequality and other grievances. We can now throw the Snowden affair into this volatile mix.
After all, what better way to mark the 10th anniversary of the 2003 demonstration for free speech than to hold another massive protest for free speech? One can almost envision Snowden as the grand marshal of the parade.
It is, of course, possible that Beijing will take the Snowden affair out of Hong Kong's hands and declare it is matter for the central government, which by treaty has the right to handle the territory's foreign affairs under the "one country, two systems" arrangement.
Yet Snowden presents Beijing's leaders with a problem they would probably prefer to do without -- to be sure, the Chinese media will have fun exposing America's "hypocrisy" in criticizing China's own surveillance programs, but it's a confrontation with Washington that Beijing would likely prefer to avoid at this time.
But if Sino-U.S. relations are testy at the moment, so too are Beijing's relations with Hong Kong. If Beijing decides to dig down into Hong Kong to extract and then return Snowden to U.S. authorities -- overriding Hong Kong law and flying in the face of growing local sympathy -- it may find its actions spark even more unrest, and not just on July 1.
