While Germany has massively gained self-confidence in recent years, especially during the euro crisis, it has not developed a foreign policy agenda that would be in accordance with its weight and the responsibilities that come with power.
On Turkey and on Ukraine, the two biggest and strategically most important countries in the EU's immediate neighborhood, Germany is generally swimming with the EU mainstream. But when it comes to forging closer relations, Berlin is usually on the side of those who are reluctant to engage more. Germany seems to be driven by an impulse to keep Turkey and Ukraine at arm's length.
Germany could and should be a key Western player in relations with Russia. But besides giving Putin the cold shoulder, there is not much coming from Merkel these days. Europe leaves it largely to Washington to define Western policies toward Russia.
And Merkel has missed-so far-a great opportunity to redefine Germany's role on conflict resolution. Berlin is in a position to make an important contribution to a strategic approach to Syria. If Merkel could get the EU to come together on Syria, and pursue a common approach with the United States, the calculations in Damascus as well as in Moscow and Tehran-key backers of the current Syrian regime-would certainly change. Instead of looking reluctant and passive, Germany could use its new weight to lead on diplomacy. That might help turn the tide in Syria and also release pressure on Berlin to contribute militarily.
The obvious explanation for the fact that German foreign policy is being driven overwhelmingly by domestic concerns is that Angela Merkel is in a campaign mood. But Berlin's foreign policy has been tied to the proclivities of German voters for a number of years now.
Meanwhile, many problems are going from bad to worse-in the EU's Eastern neighborhood and much more dramatically in the South. Syria provides a glimpse into the worst possible future. As the United States backs away from its role as the world's policeman, the forces of anarchy and despotism fight for control, destroying Syria, while liberal powers watch from the sidelines, unwilling to take responsibility for maintaining order.
Europeans face two options over the longer term: either build a common foreign and security policy worthy of its name and play a much bigger role in their neighborhood and beyond, or accept that there will be more and more Syrias-that is, a proliferation of spaces ruled by the forces of disorder or by actors that are only interested in forcing others into submission and extracting all kinds of resources.
Order needs to be backed by power. To the extent that the United States is retreating from its role as a guarantor of regional order in and around Europe, Europeans must fill the vacuum-and promote their model of liberal democracy.
Merkel's new assertiveness, her readiness to confront other leaders if deemed necessary, is a good first step. Berlin has won room to maneuver. But it should not use its newfound strength merely to advance short-term interests and the swinging moods of voters. The next step is for Berlin to redefine its relations with the world according to longer-term interests and strategies and to shape a specific foreign policy role for Germany.
Berlin can move Europe forward or hold it back. Due to its economic strength and its key role in the EU, Germany can either turn Europe into an active player willing and able to shape the twenty-first-century world in cooperation with others. Or it can condemn Europe to passivity, leaving the definition and maintenance of the future order to others. If reelected for a third term-as everybody expects her to be-Angela Merkel is going to make history either way.
