The year is 2030, and a crisis in the Persian Gulf once again threatens to become a debacle of global proportions.
As it has for decades, the region's unique combination of repressive regimes, energy bounties, intra-Islamic rivalry and pent up popular frustrations explodes in violence. That rocks global markets, sends the price of oil sky high and prompts navies half a world away to put to sea.
The script may seem familiar. After all, the Gulf has roiled the world regularly since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 - through an Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf War, bombings in Saudi Arabia and Yemen of US military targets, the 2003 Iraq war and the 2011 Arab Spring. In each case, Gulf crises sent oil prices soaring and put the world on a war footing.
Yet by 2030, the cast has changed. Yes, the US Navy is still watching warily. And because oil remains a global commodity whose price is vulnerable to small disruptions, America remains concerned about the oil and gas flowing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz - the bottleneck that could in an instant take Saudi, Iraqi, Qatari, Kuwaiti and other energy supplies off the market.
However, over the next decade and a half, the fleets that really care will no longer fly the Stars and Stripes. More than likely, warships from a host of Asian countries - including Japan, China and India - will be regular visitors to the Gulf by that time. These nations, not the United States or its European allies, will have the greatest stake in preventing a calamity that could damage their economies.
For Americans, this may come as quite a relief. Ever since Britain's Royal Navy lost command of the seas after World War II, the US Navy has provided something of a free public utility by ensuring that global commerce travels on the long, exposed sea lanes connecting major economies.
The incentives for the United States to bear this particular burden are changing. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), by 2030 the share of US oil consumption fulfilled by Persian Gulf sources will have fallen below 35 percent. Perhaps it could drop even further, given the new productivity of old US wells, new discoveries off Brazil and the shale gas and tight oil revolution in the US Midwest.
But South and East Asia face a very different future. For China, Gulf oil will comprise 75 percent, according to the EIA. For South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, the percentage will be even higher. India's suppliers are slightly more diverse, but even there over 60 percent of imports will flow from the Gulf in 2030.
