Why did Saudi Arabia's National Security Advisor and Chief of Intelligence Prince Bandar bin Sultan go to Moscow on July 31, 2013? Bandar's surprise and public visit to Moscow caught many observers off guard given the bitter differences between the two countries about Syria and policies to end the conflict that has killed more than 100,000 people since the Arab Spring began in 2011.
Saudi and Russian foreign ministries often snipe at each other and accuse each other of unhelpful meddling in Syria. The two countries bitterly disagree on how to resolve the conflict. The Russians claim that the Saudis are supporting the rebels, who "are really terrorists." The Saudis accuse the Russians of backing the Assad regime by providing weapons to the Syrian military that allows them to conduct "crimes against humanity."
Prince Bandar bin Sultan has a comprehensive and in-depth relationship with Moscow. He has flown to Moscow many times to discuss Middle East issues with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Topics addressed by the two even before the Arab Spring have included Gulf Cooperation Council-Russian relations, arms purchases and Iran's nuclear program. On Iran, Bandar has sought out Moscow's help in delivering messages to officials in Tehran and has asked the Kremlin to support Saudi Arabia's position on the Iranian nuclear program. Saudi officials think the Kremlin has direct influence with Iran on strategic regional issues, including what will happen next in Syria.
Bandar, who manages the Levant and Iranian portfolios in the Saudi government, may also want to use Moscow to communicate the Kingdom's positions on Syria to Assad. The visit brings the Kremlin closer to Saudi Arabia in regards to the Syrian question in a diplomatic role and as a negotiator. This fact may help settle some aspects of the Syrian conflict.
Saudi Arabia considers Russia as one of the few countries that can address the Syrian issue head-on, particularly as Western countries, including the U.S., struggle to formulate policies to help resolve the conflict, which has the potential to cause sectarian instability across the Islamic world. King Abdullah and other senior Saudi princes, including Bandar, want concrete international policy initiatives that end the economic, social and political destruction that is happening in Syria.
The Kingdom and the Kremlin share mutual concerns about the Syrian conflict. One is that violent extremists gain strategic and tactical fighting experience in Syria and bring that knowledge and desire to wreak havoc back home, as they have in the past. For Riyadh, al-Qaeda linked groups and affiliates are the main threat. Islamic fighters from Circassian, Chechen and Dagestiani fighters battling Assad's regime may pose a future security problem in the Russian Federation.
Another issue for both states is the fate of Assad and the remnants of his government. What happens to the Syrian state and the region if he is toppled? Both governments will want to prevent Syria from becoming a failed state. If Assad ever has to leave Syria, Moscow will be his likely destination.
