WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. deal with Russia to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons has pulled the Obama administration into deep waters: the Kremlin's long-standing drive to put the brakes on American power and to restore Moscow to its place as a pivotal Mideast player.
If Syria, which relies on Russian patronage, signs on, then the deal temporarily would solve a big domestic political problem for President Barack Obama. Russian President Vladimir Putin would walk away with two immense prizes, at the least.
The framework does not settle the larger issue, ending the civil war that has ravaged Syria for more than two years. Nor does it address Obama's calls for Syrian President Bashar Assad's departure and his replacement by democratic order in a country that has never known one.
For Obama, the agreement hammered out in Geneva would buttress his inclination to find answers through diplomacy rather than military means.
It could, for a time, distract Americans who had grown critical, or at least doubtful, about his foreign policy bona fides, given White House waffling and course changes on threatened airstrikes against Syria. That was Obama's declared response to punish Assad for what the U.S. says was his use of chemical weapons in an attack last month, killing more than 1,400 people.
Putin, on the other hand, will have taken great strides in showing that Russia must play a critical role in the Middle East, something it surrendered with the collapse of the Soviet Union more than two decades ago.
What's more, Putin has for the time being shored up Assad. Equally important to the Kremlin, Russian intervention will enhance Putin's stature as a geopolitical counterbalance to American power.
The deal calls for unspecified U.N. penalties against Syria should Assad fail to comply, but stops short of authorizing a military strike. That would leave Obama in a position of ignoring the world body's directive should he revert to airstrikes.
"It was a brilliant tactical move" for Russia, said Jonathan Adelman, professor at the University of Denver Korbel School of International Studies.
"It makes them the savior of Syria, and the savior of their closest ally. It kind of highlighted the message that the Americans are clearly, totally unreliable," he said.
To R. Nicholas Burns, professor of international relations at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, the Russian gambit is part of a long-term strategy.
"One of Putin's abiding objectives for the last decade has been to limit the power and maneuverability of the United States," said Burns, a former ambassador to NATO and Greece, and a former undersecretary of state for political affairs.
"They don't want to live in a world where the United States is dominant. If there are opportunities to limit, clip the power of the United States, to harry and harass the United States, they will do it," said Burns, who served in both Republican and Democratic administration.
Assad and his father before him have been Moscow's foremost Arab allies for decades. Much of the weaponry Syria deploys against the rebels fighting to overthrow his government comes from Russia.
