In recent days, Putin has been strutting on the world stage, playing the statesman and diplomat, urging the U.S. to rely on negotiations and soft power when dealing with Syria and Iran. When dealing with his own adversaries and enemies, however, his approach has been rather different. "The Russian military's engagement in the Caucasus over the past two decades," Berman writes, "can best be described as a scorched-earth policy that has left more than a hundred thousand citizens dead."
Berman speculates that, in the years ahead, Putin may be tempted to pursue "an even more aggressive policy" toward the now-independent Slavic republics (Ukraine and Belarus), the Baltic nations (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia), and Eastern Europe. But piecing together a post-Soviet Russian empire, in Berman's view, remains a remote possibility. "Russia's future is not one of global dominance, as the current occupants of the Kremlin . . . seem to believe," he writes.
More likely scenarios, he adds, include a losing battle to stem Russia's Islamization, civil war, conflict with China, and deepening decadence. As for meaningful reform leading to revitalization, Berman thinks there's not a snowball's chance - figuratively speaking again.
Back in 1970, a time when the Soviet Union was still seen as a superpower, the dissident author Andrei Amalrik wrote a book titled Will the Soviet Union Survive Till 1984? He selected that date as an homage to George Orwell's classic novel but, in the end, he was off by only seven years. (Show me the political scientist, journalist, or intelligence analyst who was closer to the mark.)
What caused the decline and fall of the Soviet Union? I would like to think that nations built on soul-crushing ideologies are doomed from the start. But that may represent wishful thinking. Do we really know that history is on the side of freedom? Do we really know that history takes sides?
And if post-Soviet Russia is now imploding, as Berman argues, is Putin aware of that? Could his displays of manly vigor - fighting, hunting, fishing, tagging polar bears - be meant to inspire Russia's revitalization? Or are these activities just lipstick and a fancy hairdo on a decrepit old hag - figuratively speaking, of course?
