The last two decades of bilateral negotiations absent a final peace agreement have placed an enormous strain on Palestinian politics and society. If it is still possible to speak of a Palestinian national consensus in support of negotiations, it is fast disappearing. More and more Palestinians are instead calling for a change in strategy and approach. Such calls have a direct bearing on the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP), which neither the Palestinian leadership nor the European Union as a key sponsor and supporter of the MEPP can afford to ignore.
Despite all the interim agreements and promises made over the last 20 years, Palestinians are little closer to achieving their core strategic objectives, loosely defined as an end to Israel's occupation, self-determination, and a "just solution" for Palestinian refugees. Nor has the situation on the ground in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPTs) substantially improved.
For many Palestinians, life has become harder - a far cry from the promised dividends of peace. Movement restrictions and closure have become the norm. Social inequalities have grown, poverty rates remain high, and dependency on aid has soared. The strong social bonds that once supported Palestinians through the harshest periods of occupation have largely disappeared, replaced by a rampant individualism at odds with the fragile economic situation most now find themselves in. Many now warn of the diminishing prospects for Palestinian statehood given the pace of Israeli settlement construction over the last two decades, while the bitter political divide between Fatah and Hamas continues to weaken the ability of either party to mount an effective political response to the many challenges Palestinians face.
The failure of bilateral negotiations has not only eroded public faith in the MEPP but has also hurt the credibility of the Palestinian leadership, which has consistently aligned itself with them. While a slim majority of Palestinians living in the OPTs continue to support a two-state solution, recent polls conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research show that most believe it is no longer practical given the extensive presence of Israeli settlements. Less than a third view the Palestinian Authority (PA) positively, while only 31 percent in the West Bank, and 36 percent in the Gaza Strip evaluate their current conditions favourably. Fewer still are optimistic about the future, or Israel's long-term intentions.
More than a loss of faith in negotiations, these statistics speak to a crisis of confidence in the very institutions and decision-making most closely associated with them. They highlight the extent to which Palestinian disenchantment goes beyond criticism of any individual or particular decision to include the political status quo in place since 1993.
The progressive marginalisation of Palestinians living outside of the OPTs from any meaningful form of engagement in political decision-making over the last 20 years has only exacerbated the sense of disconnect that increasingly exists between ordinary Palestinians and the political structures that represent them. Since 1993, decision-making has progressively become concentrated in the hands of a few, with de facto political power shifting from the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) to the PA, and more recently, to the president's office. This has significantly eroded whatever avenues were once open for Palestinians to influence key political decisions, particularly within the PLO. In concert with this, Palestinian political demands have narrowed to an almost exclusive focus on state building and the more immediate challenges associated with "self-rule" under occupation (with all other issues indefinitely deferred until permanent status negotiations).
The signs of a growing crisis of confidence in the political status quo are hard to miss. Across the various forums, websites, and publications that are a staple of Palestinian political life both inside and outside the OPTs, many Palestinians are calling for a return to the drawing board and a reassessment of national strategies and goals. Options being promoted include far reaching reforms to the PLO, new elections for the Palestine National Council, and even the dismantlement of the PA. These are not cosmetic changes. Nor were the demands of protestors involved in anti-government demonstrations held in Ramallah last September, which included calls for senior political figures to resign and for the PLO to walk away from the Oslo Accords altogether.
