A jubilant photo op seemed in the offing. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and EU Foreign Affairs chief Catherine Ashton were busy negotiating in Geneva when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry flew in. Quickly, the foreign ministers of the other P5+1 nations headed to Switzerland to join them. Iranian sources spoke of those diplomats gathering to produce a joint accord outlining three stages toward resolving the nuclear stalemate: shared goals, first step and final step.
In principal it sounds clear-cut and easy to achieve. As Zarif noted upon arriving for the talks, "Enrichment is our fundamental and [sic] right, but we can negotiate to what degree, dimension and other things." The Iranian foreign minister went on to propose that the U.S. and the rest of the world accept Tehran's right to nuclear enrichment while Iran in return accept the world's demand that it abjure nuclear weapons. Iran would pursue nuclear energy only for peaceful ends and the world would lift sanctions.
U.S. President Barack Obama already acknowledged Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy during his speech before the UN General Assembly in September. Nonetheless, in a repeat of so many other negotiation sessions, not even a preliminary accord could be reached at Geneva; though differences, according to both Kerry and Zarif, have been narrowed. Iran also deftly divided the P5+1 through its conciliatory tone, with France demanding more concessions than the U.S. Much to the American delegation's disappointment -- it had hoped to reach a deal -- all parties will have to meet yet again later this month.
A deal is desired by both President Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to clinch their legacies as peacemakers. For Obama it would help avoid further impasses, reduce pressure to strengthen sanctions and take an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities off the table. For Rouhani, it would produce economic relief and international engagement he has promised voters.
The Israeli government, on the other hand, having spent years at the receiving end of threats from Iranian officials, preemptively blasted any deal as unacceptable, believing it will not adequately reduce Iran's ability to produce an atomic arsenal. Likewise in Iran a recent Gallup poll revealed that 34 percent of Iranians still support military dimensions, and 56 percent wish to continue the civilian dimensions of their nuclear program. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is playing both sides by publicly supporting negotiations while cautioning that any pact may ultimately fail.
The stakes are indeed high. Iran still has not accounted for past activities suggesting a clandestine pursuit of nuclear military capabilities. Even more than sanctions relief, Tehran seeks the release of over $50 billion in assets frozen around the world, unfettered trade with global markets, access to technology that has remained largely beyond its reach for more than three decades and full re-inclusion in international forums. Halting the nuclear program in order to achieve those goals while retaining restart capability would be a major coup for Rouhani's government.
