The DDA was launched at a time when these transformations had not yet occurred. Negotiations were fought on yesterday's battlefields. The world has changed immensely while Doha was a constant.
Unable to adjust, lead or compromise, and thereby frustrated by no longer being able to dictate the global trade agenda, the established powers opted to play in regional trade deals and then in another more exclusive trade sandbox - in the form of what's been called the "trade mega-deals." There are two especially big ones: TTIP, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, composed of the US and EU, and The Transpacific Partnership, composed of a dozen Pacific countries, led by the United States. Both exclude the new emerging trading powers - China, Brazil, India, South Africa - along with the poor countries, especially those from southern and central Asia and Africa. The intention of these mega-deals is not only to liberalize trade among members, but also, perhaps especially, to write new trade rules for the 21st century.
So in the space of not much more than a decade, the world transformed from a three-part division to an attempt at integration is back to a new two-part divide with the essentially rich "in" countries, and the "outs" - emerging, developing and poor countries - with the former being rule-makers and the latter rule-abiders.
There is no guarantee that these mega-deals will see the light of day. But there's been a trend in recent years - from global trade integration to fragmentation. Of course, trends need not be irreversible. Will Bali be seen as a reversal of these trends of global fragmentation in favor of greater global integration? One must hope, but a closer look at the Bali package suggests it is unlikely.
Much of the Bali package is rhetoric, not yet translated into implementable concrete reality. More fundamentally, it remains to be seen whether the spirit of global cooperation, the setting aside of narrow national interests in favor of improving the global commons, will prevail sufficiently to generate post-Bali momentum. Bali is Doha-lite. One reason for its "success" is the view among US trade officials that none of the provisions are likely to require approval of Congress, in these days an almost-certain graveyard for trade deals, perhaps even for TPP and TTIP.
Optimists celebrate that, thanks to Bali, trade multilateralism lives to see another day. The fear was that a Bali failure would not only have put a last nail in the Doha coffin, but also hastened the demise of the already fragile rules-based multilateral trade regime. It is a victory of sorts, but perhaps dangerously so of the pyrrhic variety. The tattered global trade fabric is in desperate need of radical reform. Mindsets, the culture of 21st century globalization, must change and implement radical reforms to adapt to the new realities and thereby seize the opportunities for a more equitable, inclusive and sustainable globalization.
So Bali is not the end nor, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, is it the beginning of the end, but one must hope perhaps the end of a long, tortuous beginning. Great effort, leadership and vision are required to build solid foundations for a 21st century trade regime.
