Proper reporting and analysis should be a net assessment of these facts and a comparison of the Maliki government's actions relative to those of AQI and the vast majority of Iraq Sunni who now have reason to be angry with both. It would push as hard for reform in Iraq's leadership and government as for efforts that can defeat AQI/ISIS without causing a massive rise in Sunni anger, endorsing more Maliki government repression, and creating more seeds for civil conflict.
At the same time, proper reporting and analysis on U.S. policy options should take account of the dilemma the Obama Administration and Congress faces. There are no good options in Iraq. The Maliki government controls the security forces, it has all the money it can possibly need from Iraq's oil revenues, it can manipulate the courts and Iraq's parliament, and it can play Iran off of the United States if the United States puts too much pressure on the Maliki government - and particularly if the United States is too open in official criticism of Maliki's actions.
In fairness, the United States also has done more at the official level than many media reports and analysts have done outside it. Key U.S. officials like Secretary Kerry and Anthony Blinken have publically stressed the need for basic reforms by the Maliki government within the limits imposed by realpolitik. Key Senators have pushed for limits on U.S. aid to Iraq and changes in the behavior of the Maliki government.
When Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Brett McGurk visited Iraq last week, he met with national and local leaders from across the political spectrum to discuss the security situation in western Iraq. A press release from the US Embassy in Baghdad noted that:
McGurk's itinerary included meetings with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Speaker Osama Nujaifi, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Mutlaq, Deputy Prime Minister Husayn Shahristani, head of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, Ammar al-Hakim, and members of the Council of Representatives from the Iraqiyya and State of Law blocs. He also conferred with prominent leaders from Anbar province, including Governor Ahmed Khalaf, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, and former Minister of Finance Rafa al-Issawi.
In all of these meetings, DAS McGurk confirmed the enduring U.S. commitment to the Government and people of Iraq in their efforts to isolate and defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). He noted the encouraging trend in Ramadi where local leaders, working with tribes and supported with resources from Baghdad, have pushed ISIL to the outskirts of the city. He further noted the planning to separate ISIL and other militant groups from the population in Fallujah using a similar strategy while also accounting for the unique circumstances there. The United States, he emphasized, will provide all necessary and appropriate assistance to the Government of Iraq (GOI) under the Strategic Framework Agreement to help ensure that these efforts succeed.
In addition, McGurk stressed with all of these leaders that long-term stability requires a close fusion of security and political measures, as well as guarantees from the GOI that courageous and patriotic Iraqi citizens who stand to fight ISIL and other extremist groups be recognized and ultimately incorporated into the formal security structures of the state. He further emphasized to all parties the importance of pursuing political initiatives and addressing the legitimate grievances of all communities within the framework of the Iraqi constitution.
Both media and analysts need to be far more realistic and objective in evaluating the fact there is only so much the Obama Administration and Congress can do. Sending in U.S. forces now would mean taking sides in what threatens to become a far more intense Sunni versus Shi'ite civil conflict. Providing counterterrorism aid without tight controls on the weapons involved would enable the Maliki government to use them against the Iraqi people.
The Administration seems to have realized this in in making its initial response to the crisis that began in December 2013. Sending in a few precision-guided Hellfire missiles with limited lethality and value only against point targets - plus some limited-performance reconnaissance drones that left the Maliki government dependent on broader and quieter U.S. intelligence aid - was such an approach.
So does trying to find ways a U.S. advisory team could control later transfers of systems like the AH-64 - weapons that could only be delivered and operated months after the December/January crisis peaked, as well as sending in small advisory teams.
The U.S. government cannot stand by and let AQI/ISIS gain more power, and it has to provide some aid in counterterrorism. At the same time, it needs every bit of outside leverage that is possible to push the Maliki government towards reform and equitable treatment of Sunnis and Kurds, and that lays the groundwork for demanding an honest outcome from Iraq's upcoming election and an outcome that moves back toward the level of national unity called for in the Erbil agreement.
These are actions that require the best possible reporting in the media, and equal depth of analysis from outside analysts and NGOs. To date, far too much of the output from both has had narrow and often partisan focus on counterterrorism and the threat from AQI/ISIS. The Maliki threat is at least - if not more - important.
