This kind of existence on the edge is nothing new for Moldovans. For centuries, their country has been an in-between territory-not big enough to be sustainable on its own, not weak enough to implode or just be left alone. As tributaries to the Ottomans, as a backwater in czarist Russia, as the weaker half of greater Romania, or as a sideshow within the Soviet Union, Moldova has always been a fringe entity.
Since gaining independence in 1991, Moldova has turned its in-between existence into something resembling a virtue. Being equally involved with the two blocs to its east and west, the country has achieved a fragile internal stability. Small-scale oligarchs have been able to use the country as the basis for their economic success without ever committing fully to either the Russian or the Western orbit.
As a consequence, Moldova managed to survive its many internal contradictions essentially by avoiding a commitment to either side. Staying "in between" became a political survival strategy.
However, as the power rivalry between Russia and the West intensifies and Moldova's unhealthy economy shows no substantial signs of improvement, this in-between situation is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Both Russia's expansionism in its old Soviet backyard and the transformative agenda of the European Neighborhood Policy-one a threat, the other an offer-are putting pressure on the political elites and society as a whole. These factors are forcing Moldova's noncommittal society to make a choice-a choice that threatens to literally tear the country apart.
What is the alternative? From a strategic viewpoint, the EU and the United States have few options. They can't just buy a country and turn it into a full-blown client state. That is not something the West wants or could sustain politically at home, nor is it what the situation on the ground calls for.
So the EU will slightly revamp and extend its neighborhood policy, which will continue to fail. A Western military engagement in Moldova is unthinkable, and indeed, NATO has recently ruled this out.
The only remaining hope for Moldova is that its own elites will finally get serious about reforming the country and addressing some of its simmering lethal internal threats. Most observers in ChiÅ?inÄ?u don't believe this can happen. Such a course might have been a distant possibility under more normal circumstances during the last twenty years. But the opportunities were wasted, and now time is running out.
Amid the current regional tensions, successful internal modernization looks impossible. And thus, Moldova's future as an independent, sovereign state looks increasingly questionable as well. Grim prospects indeed on Europe's Eastern flank.
