With respect to IS, NATO's position is both easier and more difficult at the same time. It is easier because the turmoil in Iraq and Syria does not fall into the alliance's immediate remit. It is more difficult because the seemingly unstoppable expansion of the jihadists' reach confronts Europeans and Americans with a daunting question: Will the West eventually have to go to war against IS? If the West's indirect containment strategy-propping up the Kurdish Peshmerga as the group's opponents-fails, and if the regional powers remain largely passive, Western troops on the ground may be unavoidable.
Of course, NATO will not phrase the conundrum in this way. Alliance leaders will agree on few tangible steps in Wales with regard to IS. And yet the war question is looming in the background, and with it the question of whether NATO will be involved.
So far, the West fears the costs and the unintended consequences of intervening in a politically, ethnically, and religiously hypercharged part of the world more than it fears the jihadists' further expansion. That may change. Don't expect the Wales summit to tackle this head-on. But do expect this topic to hang over the meeting like a dark cloud.
For a military alliance, many answers to these challenges sound technical and specific. NATO is set to embrace an elaborate exercise scheme in Central Europe that will increase the alliance's troop presence there but will not constitute permanent basing. NATO's Framework Nations concept, which aims to combine capabilities among allies, will make Britain and Germany leaders in projects that mix operational readiness with smarter defense spending. Members will renew their vow to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense.
But success in Wales will depend a lot on whether NATO can send a message that goes beyond the merely technical. The alliance must show that it can communicate the enormity of the changes that European security is currently undergoing, that it will address these changes resolutely without going overboard, and that the transatlantic link still works.
A larger-than-usual crowd will tune in when NATO leaders congregate in Wales. The summit will be followed closely not only in Europe but also around the world. It will be used as an indicator of whether the West is still alive. And it will tell audiences in Moscow, Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Tel Aviv, Damascus, Cairo, and elsewhere whether Europeans are still willing to play a military role and how loyal the United States is as an ally.
Any summit held under today's geopolitical circumstances would be highly significant. The image NATO sends out in Wales will resonate for a long time to come.
