Taiwan's local elections this week and Hong Kong's public demonstrations send an implicit but clear message to Beijing: These two populations do not want to live under the rule of China's Communist Party.
The rejection embodied in these events has been building for years in both places. With it, Deng Xiaoping's prescription for the futures of Taiwan and Hong Kong - "one country, two systems" - lies figuratively in ashes. President Xi Jinping now must decide whether he should hold firm or find ways to broaden his China Dream to accommodate the democratic aspirations of Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Xi has greater legal latitude and practical opportunity to use force in Hong Kong, where Beijing's sovereignty is universally acknowledged and where it controls the actions of police. Short of a mass revolution in the territory, there is no present need to mobilize the People's Liberation Army, particularly as the local police are beginning to show the kinds of ruthless behavior Chinese authorities use in handling protests on the Mainland. But if Hong Kong's authorities prove unable to handle larger demonstrations, would Xi risk a Tiananmen-like massacre rather than honor Deng's home-rule promise?
Taiwan presents a different kind of legal, diplomatic, or military challenge. First of all, a couple dozen governments still recognize the Republic of China, rather than the People's Republic, as the legitimate authority in Taiwan. Even governments that officially accept the "one China" concept, most notably the United States, profess agnosticism on which government should rule Taiwan. Moreover, successive U.S. administrations have declared that any resolution to Taiwan's fate must reflect the will of the 23 million Taiwanese. (Beijing says 1.4 billion Chinese voices must also be heard in the decision.)
Washington has long provided arms to help Taiwan prepare its own defense, and the Taiwan Relations Act pronounced any threat to Taiwan's future a matter "of grave concern to the United States," falling just short of the explicit security commitment contained in the earlier Mutual Defense Treaty. Since its 1979 enactment, Americans, especially those in Congress, have periodically irked Beijing by invoking the Taiwan Relations Act's force of law as juridically trumping the three Sino-U.S. Communiques which China sees as the foundation of the three-party relationship.
As a legal counterweight to the Taiwan Relations Act, the National People's Congress in 2005 adopted the Anti-Secession Law, which threatens war if Taiwan declares independence - or even makes moves in that direction. The act goes a step further still, asserting China's right to use "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan simply takes too long to accept Chinese rule.
The elections in Taiwan may have convinced Beijing that the possibility of closer political ties is vanishing, even with a Kuomintang government that it sees as the most pro-China administration in Taiwan's history. The greatly enhanced prospects of a return to power by Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party in the 2016 presidential election surely must vex Xi and his colleagues.
If Beijing has indeed determined that possibilities for peaceful unification are "completely exhausted," as the Anti-Secession Law warns, Beijing may conclude it is now justified in taking military action against Taiwan. Or cooler heads may prevail, pushing China instead to await a more tangible pretext for hostilities. The assessment of America's role will weigh heavily in Beijing's deliberations. Is President Barack Obama so politically constrained at home that he would not dare enter into a new military confrontation abroad? Or, conversely, would a weakened U.S. administration jump at the chance to confront a foreign adversary and help the Democrats in 2016? For that matter, how much domestic political latitude does Xi himself have to act, or to compromise, on Taiwan or Hong Kong?
Xi is thus left pondering critical dilemmas, not only regarding war and peace, but concerning the very legitimacy of China's Communist regime. He might want to consider the sound advice Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has been offering Beijing for years: Start following Taiwan's lead and move along the peaceful path to democracy. With one country, two systems now a dead letter for Taiwan, two countries, one system would be the better answer.
