Where will Vladimir Putin take Russia next? That's the question everyone in Washington is asking, and so far no one has a really good answer. That lack of clarity makes it likely that the back-and-forth between Washington and Moscow next year will look like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.
For starters, it is not at all clear that Vladimir Putin himself knows what Vladimir Putin will do next. There are plenty of signs that Moscow's master manipulator has been winging it since Sochi. While Putin may have accurately predicted the ineptness of any Ukrainian government and the West's timid response, he couldn't have known petroleum prices would plummet. The bottoming out of oil revenues, along with several other economic shocks, appears to have stunned the Kremlin. As the ruble drops faster than the temperature in Siberia, the economy is contracting. Russia's business environment hasn't been in such bad shape since 2009.
So far, Putin has walked tall and carried a big stick. While mucking about in Ukraine, he has also intensified military activities in the Nordic and Baltic regions. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has dished out a lot of under-the-table cash to peddle pro-Russian policies in the West. Exhibit A: His funding of environmental groups to oppose competing energy projects. It has worked well for him so far, but Moscow's dwindling treasury makes paying for all of this increasingly difficult.
There are clear signs that the Russians are feeling the squeeze. During a visit to Turkey, Putin announced that South Stream, a pipeline that would have carried natural gas across the Black Sea into Western Europe, would not be built. Putin portrayed this as a European snub, but he was probably trying to save face, hiding the embarrassing fact that Gazprom cannot afford the project.
An activist foreign policy paired with a plummeting economy can be a volatile mix. Now that Putin has put himself in a tight spot, will it make him any more - or less - dangerous than he has been?
The White House would like to believe that Putin will act more reasonable and constrained in the future - regardless of whatever blustering rhetoric he feels compelled to offer for domestic consumption. That answer appeals because it's an "easy button" for the Oval Office: it leaves them needing to do nothing except leave sanctions in place.
Neither the Europeans nor the U.S. Congress want to ease sanctions on Russia, so Obama couldn't lift them if he wanted to.
On the other hand, the "Putin is a wounded animal" answer works just fine for an Oval Office looking to stand pat. Obama can use that answer to argue that provoking Moscow might actually be dangerous and force a desperate Putin to sow chaos across the Russian polity.
Thus far, Obama's answer seems to be: Let's just let Putin keep Crimea and give him some space. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that a cautious approach by the West will elicit better behavior from Moscow.
Not only are there no obvious signals of Putin backing down, but there are signs that he is in fact doubling down. On a daily basis now, one country or another turns back a Russian plane at the edge of its airspace. Meanwhile, Putin is mounting a manic charm offensive, pairing up with seemingly anyone who will take a selfie with him. Beijing, Ankar, and New Delhi have all gotten heart hugs from Moscow. Most recently, Putin invited North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to visit Moscow next May.
All the while, Putin has been sending signals from the far reaches of the Arctic to the Adriatic Coast that there is a new sheriff in town. And the former KGB agent is using every means of disinformation and propaganda at his disposal to undermine the credibility of the West and to depict Moscow as the courageous, oppressed victim of a sad, transnational soap opera.
Rather than bet on whether Putin will behave better or continue acting badly, it's best to assume that - either way - he's unlikely to work to make the world a safer, more stable place. No strongman can afford to loosen his grip on power. Putin now finds himself in Macbeth's position: Having seized the crown, he is too fearful to let go.
