This article first appeared in America Economia
SANTIAGO - The notion of a so-called incursion of Latin migrants "invading" the United States through its southern frontier to steal jobs and undermine security sounds like electoral drama cooked up by a rabble-rousing candidate. Trumped up, you might say, in this case by Donald Trump, the real estate magnate shaking up the polls leading up to the 2016 presidential election.
The more sober reality is that between 2008 and 2012, U.S. Census Bureau data showed that 800,000 Mexicans migrated both legally and illegally to the United States, compared to 1.9 million in the four years before that. That's 57% fewer - and without the giant wall Trump says he must build to seal the 3,200-kilometer U.S. border with Mexico.
Not that Trump cares much for realities. Practically all the economic, financial, demographic and social figures he has bandied about on television since announcing his presidential candidacy in June have been inaccurate. When it comes to citing "facts and figures," denouncing fellow Republicans or belittling public personalities such as Sen. John McCain, he speaks with the nonchalance of an entertainer. He accused one female interviewer of asking him hostile questions because she was having her period, and apparently believes most Mexicans are drug dealers and rapists.
When they ask him about foreign or domestic affairs - from ISIS to the nuclear deal with Iran, to education financing or factory closures - the response is always the same: Things couldn't be worse, and I'm going to fix it all.
Trump doesn't explain why things are so bad or how he will fix them, but when pressured, he responds quickly. He will solve the problem of illegal immigration by building a wall on the U.S. border, paid for by Mexicans. He will change laws, and even the Constitution if necessary, to prevent the children of Mexicans from obtaining citizenship just for being born in the United States.
It's populism, demagoguery and racism delivered through your television screen. Trump speaks without filters and cites statistics and figures with such spontaneity and self-assurance that he seems to be telling the truth. And that's working in his favor, for now.
From Hugo C to Cristina K
Here in Latin America, we know a thing or two about populism. Trump isn't the first politician we've heard spewing a torrent of fiction to win supporters. Venezuela's late leader, Hugo Chávez, used freewheeling and undiplomatic public discourse that his partisans adored. Argentina's Cristina Kirchner also says the first thing that comes to her mind, in a perfect combination of ignorance and aplomb. But these "proto-Trumps" didn't turn out to be good news for their respective countries.
Likewise, Trump isn't good news for the United States. When someone who throws verbal grenades every day is leading the polls, a healthy dose of caution is in order.
The good news is that nobody in their right mind believes he will actually become president. Though he is leading polls now, voters will eventually come to understand that he's too much of a rogue for a mainstream party, that he doesn't understand that governing requires dialogue, negotiation and agreements.
If he ultimately fails to win the Republican nomination, he could run as an independent, effectively splitting the Republican vote and ensuring a win for likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Explaining his success
Media skills have helped Trump, but they alone don't explain his political success to date. The fact that 20% of Republicans see him as a viable option suggests he is a symptom of a deeper unease in U.S. society.
Trump generally attracts those who are distrustful of politicians, especially blue-collar whites who feel threatened by migrants willing to work for less money and by the movement of factories abroad.
The U.S. economy recovered well after the 2008 recession, but this isn't necessary being felt among all workers. The worst-hit group are less educated, white men, and Trump's xenophobia and hardly veiled misogyny speak to them. They are generally simple people with strong opinions despite a serious lack of information.
They believe the United States has taken the wrong path. The departure of U.S. factories abroad and the trend of migrants taking jobs in farming, taxi driving and construction have turned them against foreigners. Their resentment is understandable. There are so many migrants doing manual work that the few white people working alongside them feel out of place and threatened.
