It seems that the era of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is coming to the end. In two weeks the Palestinian National Council (PNC), the most senior representative body of the Palestinian people, representing Palestinians in Palestine and in the diaspora, will convene in Ramallah to elect a new Executive Committee - the government of the PLO.
Abbas told the Fatah leadership Monday evening that he would not be running in the elections.
Yasser Arafat and Abbas both served as the chairmen of the Executive Committee of the PLO and in that position negotiated and signed six agreements with Israel. It is the PNC that created the Palestinian Authority, and Abbas was elected by the Palestinian people in Palestine to serve as president of the PA. The PA, by the decision of the Executive Committee, was converted into the State of Palestine, which gained recognition by the United Nations as a non-member state but nonetheless a recognized state in the community of nations.
Abbas told his Fatah colleagues that he wished to bring to an end all of the positions that he holds and would not run for reelection as president of Palestine, nor as the chairman of the Fatah party.
This is definitely the end of an era in the Middle East.
Despite what is perhaps the belief of a majority of Israelis, I believe deeply that Abbas is a man of peace and that he has dedicated the last decades of his life to achieving peace, liberation and independence for his people. He has failed and it is his failure which has led him to make the decision that it is time to step down. I believe that his absence will be a great loss for Israel and for those who seek true peace.
Whoever takes over the PLO and leads the state of Palestine in the post-Abbas era is going to face a growing call among the Palestinian people to close the chapter on Oslo. For some that means ending the security cooperation with Israel but keeping the PA intact, marching forward through the intervention of the international community to bring an end to Israel's occupation. There are others who call for ending the Oslo paradigm and returning the keys to Israel - essentially closing up shop, ceasing the call for the two-state solution and demanding full and equal rights in Israel, which would in the not-too-distant future become a state with a Palestinian majority. There are those who want the next leader to continue the program of Abbas in gaining international recognition and hoping that negotiations with Israel can be renewed.
It is difficult to measure how many Palestinians support each position. It is clear though that all Palestinians are against the status quo of the continuing occupation and settlement building.
While many people, especially young Palestinians, are trying to be part of the global community and are busy advancing themselves and their own economic welfare, everyone supports resistance against the Israeli occupation. It is not clear how many support the use of violence and armed struggle that Abbas has worked so hard to remove from the Palestinian political toolbox.
For the next generation of leaders, the whole field of possibilities is open and it is impossible to predict what will be the political agenda of the next leader.
Who are the possible contenders? In no particular order:
General Jabril Rajoub
A strong leader in Fatah, originally from Dura village in Mount Hebron. Rajoub was one of Arafat's "princes." He had been deported by Israel and was in Arafat's inner circle in Tunis. After the creation of the PA, Rajoub became head of the powerful Preventive Security Forces in the West Bank. He developed strong relations with the Israeli security people, both the army and Israel Security Agency (who referred to him as "Gabriel Regev"). In past years Rajoub has headed the Palestinian football association and the Palestinian Olympic Committee. He has used sports to build cadres of young followers and supporters all over the West Bank. Rajoub told me two weeks ago that he was planning to run for president.
General Majed el Faraj
Faraj grew up in the Dheishe refugee camp. As a Fatah activist and fighter for Palestine in the largest refugee camp in the West Bank, he rose to positions of leadership. With the establishment of the Palestinian Intelligence Force, one of the most important arms of the Palestinian security forces, he rose to positions of command. Over the past years he has served as head of intelligence. He is thought to be one of the most powerful people in the PA. He also has very good relations with the Israeli and Jordanian security forces. Faraj told me two weeks ago that he had no ambitions to run for president and was looking forward to ending his public career as the head of intelligence.
