What's Russia Up to in Syria?

Reports that the Russian government might be ramping up its military role in Syria -- possibly even building bases in preparation for sending in ground forces -- have left many observers watching and waiting for Moscow's next move.

Although the Russian government claims it is merely providing technical support to Syrians in possession of Russian hardware, others worry that Russia is readying to interject ground forces into a conflict already replete with internal and external actors.

The United States apparently shares these concerns, as it has successfully lobbied governments in Bulgaria and Greece to ban Russian flights to Syria from their airspace -- much to Moscow's chagrin.

And while Russia insists that it is simply complying with the technical details of various arms agreements, there is reason to believe that Moscow is worried about defeats and setbacks suffered this year by the government of Bashar Assad. Just this week, al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, the al-Nusra Front, seized control of the Assad regime's last military base in Idlib Province. Government forces, who had already been put on the backfoot in the northwestern governorate, have now been driven out of the territory entirely.

Compounding the problems in Syria is the fact that the diplomatic process appears to have reached a stalemate. With Saudi Arabia now devoting most of its attention to the ongoing conflict in Yemen, the governments with the most influence in the country -- Iran and Turkey -- remain in disagreement on one fundamental condition for peace -- the role of Assad in post-war Syria.

Thus, Russia's elevated activity in Syria may be a push to maintain influence, and position itself to set its own conditions for a post-Assad Syria. The Russians, as one former Russian diplomat told Al-Monitor, "want a role in the formation of the new [Syrian] government ... so that the new government is neither radically Islamic, nor 100% Western-oriented, nor is ready to help radically deprive Iran of its strategic options."

Fears of a more Islamist and unruly Arab world are consistent in Russia, and stem back to the early days of the Arab Spring. "The Russian government is openly conservative; it abhors revolutions," wrote Russia analyst Dmitri Trenin in 2012. "This, however, is more than a self-serving ideological stance. When the Kremlin ... looks at the Arab Awakening, they see democratization leading directly to Islamicization."

The Daily Beast's Michael Weiss, however, suspects that Moscow's increased presence in Syria may be little more than a face-saving mechanism. Having invested years in Mideast strongmen, Russia, writes Weiss, may now be moving to secure yet another bad investment in the region.

"Under the present circumstances, it is now likely that any Russian soldiers in Damascus are there to fortify and ring-fence another spent Baathist regime, if not to join in a war that is fought increasingly by ‘foreign hands.'"

Or perhaps Russia is simply buying more time. After all, the longer this brutal, bloody conflict drags on in Syria -- sending more and more war refugees to the cities and shores of Europe -- the more likely it may become that Western powers will change their minds about Assad.

Around the Region

A Hezbollah makeover. And while one actor moves to maintain its stock in Syria, another appears to be in need of a makeover. Concerned that its largely unpopular role in the Syrian civil war has harmed its standing among Mideast Arabs, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is reportedly dipping its toe in the West Bank. Adnan Abu Amer explains:

"It seems obvious that Hezbollah is looking for a way to regain its popularity, which has dramatically declined among Palestinians and in the Arab public opinion following its involvement in the Syrian war alongside the Syrian regime. It seems the best way to do so is to confront Israel to make Palestinians temporarily forget about Hezbollah's involvement in Syria, and restore the victorious image it gained in the 2006 war when confronting the Israeli army."

Did Iran give up Khobar bomber? Former FBI special agent Ali Soufan wonders if the sudden arrest of the mastermind behind the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, Ahmed al-Mughassil, is a product of geopolitical rapprochement in the Middle East:

"Whether or not Iran will shift away from using state-sponsored terrorism as a tactic remains to be seen. But the country must be ready to pivot in its relationship with longtime foes like the Saudis. The nuclear deal has forced Tehran to confront the obvious: Its sponsorship and arming of proxies like Hezbollah and its meddling across the Middle East -- from Lebanon, to Iraq, to Syria -- will increasingly come at cross-purposes with its mission to reengage with the world.

As history shows, once the liability of harboring a state-sponsored terrorist like Mughassil outweighs the utility, the state will gladly turn him out. Just ask Carlos the Jackal."

An olive branch to Israel? The U.S. announced this week that it is adding several operatives from Hamas and Hezbollah to its special terrorist list. While the reported designations target several senior-level operatives -- including the much-reviled Samir Kuntar -- the timing of the gesture strikes some administration critics as suspect.

The terror designations "will not actually do much to stop the flow of funds to Iran's proxies," said Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in an interview with Voice of America. "But the White House will use them to signal to the more than half of the American legislators who disapproved of the deal that it is on the offensive against Iran's proxies."

A "double whammy" in the Gulf. Gulf nations, already reeling and reevaluating their spending habits in light of the global drop in oil prices, may soon be in store for yet another shock:

"Chinese economic jitters have eroded confidence in future oil demand and threatens to damage an increasingly important trading and investment partner for the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council."

[...]

"‘We are looking at a double whammy -- low oil prices, followed by an interest rate rise,' said one senior Gulf banker. ‘It's the last thing people need now.'

"Adding to oil price woes, Dubai's popular property market is undergoing a correction after years of ballooning prices as the emirate became a safe haven among regional political tumult."

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