The Russian security services are closely watching the activities of around 2,000 Russian-speaking jihadists in Syria, - most of them effective fighters harbouring ill will towards the Russian government. Should Assad be removed from power, Moscow has little doubt that these fighters would move their struggle for the Islamic caliphate to the post-Soviet space. Therefore the Kremlin would prefer to fight - and defeat - them outside Russian territory.
Helping one's allies
Finally, withdrawing support from Assad would strike a serious blow to President Putin's image at home. Assad is routinely portrayed as Moscow's ally in the struggle against the Islamist challenge in the Russian media, and Russia's loyalty to him is seen as a matter of ‘principle'. Consequently, the Russian authorities would have trouble explaining changes in their relations with Damascus to the general public.
Nothing new
Russia's stance on Syria is driven by self-interest and reflects the conditions on the ground: Russian propaganda continues to repeat the idea that, although the government forces have lost a large part of the country's territory, they still control the most populated areas. In the Kremlin's eyes this makes Assad a person to deal with. Moscow's 'master plan' is to ensure the survival of the Syrian regime and its recent decision to step up military support to Damascus should not have come as a surprise. Russia is unlikely to deviate from its strategy of supporting Assad in the foreseeable future.
