Troubling Times in Turkey

The stars are not aligning quite as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had planned. Betting that an electoral victory in June for his Justice and Development party would bolster his efforts to change Turkey's constitution and create an executive presidency, Erdogan was instead stunned and stifled by the emergence of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).

Denied the ruling majority necessary in parliament, Erdogan called for a do-over in the fall. But Turkey has, since June's upset election, been beset by terror and instability along its border. The country is now fighting a two-front war against the Islamic State and the PKK, with no end to the bloodshed in sight.

Worse yet, the underpinnings of Turkey's economy, especially in the restive Kurdish southeast, appear to be weakening. Bad debt is on the rise, and although the country's economy grew somewhat unexpectedly in the second quarter, the long-term economic projections don't look as rosy. The Wall Street Journal's Emre Peker reports:

"Amid the mounting turmoil, consumer confidence slumped to its lowest level in August since the global financial crisis in 2009, while manufacturing slowed and inflation started rising again -- forecast to hit 7.65% by year-end from 7.14% in August."

Ankara also finds itself at the whim of global economic constraints, as Peker goes on to explain:

"Turkey's economic troubles are also compounded by global volatility as a slowdown in China has roiled financial markets. Turkey is already poised to miss its 4% growth target for this year, government officials have said, as analysts have cut their forecasts to below 3%."

Economic growth and warmer relations with the PKK once seemed to provide Erdogan the wiggle room necessary to alter the constitution. But with the Kurdish peace process all but dead, and the likelihood of increased conflict still on the horizon, the recent economic woes only compound the troubles of a country seemingly short on both justice and development.

The timing couldn't be worse for Erdogan, and as Turkey prepares to host the G20 in November, the country now struggles to keep its honorific within the organization. Turkish journalist Mehmet Cetingulec explains:

"If the dollar parity goes above 3 Turkish lira at the end of this year, then Turkey's national income will sink to below $700 billion, making Turkey the weakest link of the G-20.

"Turkey has delayed essential economic reforms, has not been able to cope with terror, has not achieved stable politics, has squandered ways of giving confidence to the markets and has sustained losses in national income. In short, it is teetering on uncertainty, hoping to salvage its economy by gaining the confidence of the world with this summit."

While a mostly symbolic designation, symbolism is important to a country like Turkey that is striving to carve out a place for itself in the global economy. With tourism on the decline, and conflict and uncertainty surrounding its borders, that place seems more uncertain than ever.

Around the Region

Is Kirkuk the key? The status of the province of Kirkuk has become a hotly contested issue since Kurdish forces assumed control of its capital city and, more importantly, the territory's abundant oil fields. But now, as Baghdad and Kirkuk both face economic hardship, neither capital seems able to capitalize on the fluid situation in Kirkuk, writes Mideast analyst Michael Knights:

"The fact is that either side -- Baghdad or the KRG -- could today buy Kirkuk's gratitude and loyalty if they were willing to stand up and commit as little as $100m in interim funding. In a telling signpost that both Baghdad and the KRG are politically and economically broken, one of Iraq's most strategic provinces is up for grabs and neither side can mobilise the leaders or the resources to reach out and help Kirkuk."

An "iron fence" for Iranian women. Al-Monitor's Tehran correspondent details the many challenges facing Iranian women in the workforce:

"Of the 3,703 educational posts up for grabs, it is stated that only 630 will go to women while the other 3,073 posts will go to men. Female applicants in the Iranian capital are perhaps the most exposed to this policy; of the 190 new employees that are to join the Ministry of Education in Tehran, only six are set to be women.

"What is happening appears to be the fruits of long-planned labor. In February, the head of the Ministry of Education's Research and Planning Organization expressed concerns to the semi-official Fars News Agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that having female teachers educate young boys in elementary schools will lead to the development of "feminine and girlish behavior." These remarks have been interpreted as having paved the ground for the imposition of gender discrimination in this year's employment exam."

"But some end up in Boise." And finally, this useful and fascinating Bloomberg Businessweek infographic takes a deeper look at some of the numbers behind the Syrian refugee crisis, and what kind of effect it might have on U.S. states and cities.

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