Poland Rising?

Poland is not a member of the eurozone, and that externality gave one of its ministers some leeway to speak frankly at the height of the currency area's crisis. In November 2011, then-Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski used that leeway to intone a passionate appeal for Germany, a country long its adversary, to assume the EU leadership mantle:

"I will probably be the first Polish foreign minister in history to say so, but here it is: I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German inactivity."

Sikorski's speech, full of admonishments and admonitions, introduced a maturing Poland to the global stage. As the Economist remarked, Poland's foreign policy had for years been marked by "caution, and improving relations with Germany." But:

"[T]o see a Polish foreign minister addressing a Berlin audience as a political heavyweight, with serious ideas and serious demands, is a huge change from the days when Poland was seen as a difficult and needy recipient of Western largesse."

Four years on, Germany has since grown into its role as Europe's reluctant leader. And as elections approach in Poland, Warsaw seems to have reached a crossroads of its own. In the immediate aftermath of May's presidential election, in which the centrist Civic Platform incumbent Bronislaw Komorowski lost to Andrzej Duda, at the time a member of the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) party, observers noted an immediate shift in Polish foreign policy. The theme was confrontation. Politico EU's Jan Cienski:

"Barely a week into his term, Poland's new president is moving to realize a hallmark campaign promise: To pivot central Europe's most important country to closer security ties with its immediate eastern neighbors.

"In so doing, Andrzej Duda courts confrontation with Russia and strains in Poland's recent good vibes with Berlin and Brussels. It is a risk that the 43-year-old, right-wing leader sounds eager to run.

"‘Poland's foreign policy doesn't need a revolution,' Duda said in an interview with Politico, ‘but it does need a correction.'"

ECFR agrees that Poland now is getting set to take a more confrontational stance toward Brussels and Berlin:

"Warsaw is no longer the architect of the EU Ostpolitik, it is on the collision course with Berlin and Paris on climate issues, it will not join the eurozone any time soon, it struggles to be part of the EU defence industry consolidation process and it has (because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict) specific and not widely shared security concerns."

But any confrontation should be seen in context. As much as any country, Poland sees the value of the European Union, as GMF's Michal Baranowski told RCW during an interview.

Indeed, Poland has been a major supporter of Europe's enlargement policies; has benefited greatly from EU structural funds and the institutional infrastructure of the Common Market; and has no plans to ditch its currency, the zloty. Its points of contention with Brussels and Berlin are well-established, regardless of the October winner, and shared across the leading political platforms. Differences in foreign policy will be differences in tone, especially considering fears of a confrontation with Russia.

What happens within Poland might thus be a more complex process than the euroskepticism seen in other member states. Perhaps Poland is growing more assertive, and confident in the role it can play in European politics. Witness Warsaw's surprising vote with the majority in the European Council decision to redistribute refugees across the Schengen Area. Poland went against the other countries of the Visegrad Group, an informal association of Central European states whose potential future relevance has been undercut by differing perceptions of the threat posed by Russia. That was a risky move, considering stark domestic opposition to immigration in advance of this month's vote. But it showed a Warsaw more conscious of aligning itself with the European consensus than of expressing a purely domestic concern on a vote it was going to lose regardless. In other words, a country that wants to be viewed as a power player on the European stage.

Poland is well-positioned to continue its emergence on the Continent. Its economy has grown by European standards, it has embarked on a military modernization program, and it prioritizes stable relations with Berlin. It is of a very different character from Europe's current leading powers. Four years ago, a Poland still finding its regional footing pushed Germany to lead by example. A more self-confident Poland today would be a strong advocate for a Europe less focused on soft power, and finally tuned in to the geopolitical threats facing it.

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Around the Continent

The New Fulda Gap: Here's what Polish leaders are looking at -- and the Americans too:

"The head of U.S. Army Europe is eyeing a narrow sliver of land connecting Poland with Lithuania, concerned about the Russian troops and equipment he has been watching pile up on either side.

"Dubbed the ‘Suwalki Gap' after the Polish town of Suwalki that sits in the seam between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to the northwest and Moscow-friendly nation of Belarus to the southeast, the area has become the latest potential flashpoint between an increasingly aggressive Moscow and NATO.

"The port city of Kaliningrad has long bristled with thousands of Russian troops and advanced weapons, while Belarus recently agreed to house a large Russian air base, making the Suwalki area a small vulnerable land bridge increasingly squeezed by Russian hardware.

"‘If the Russians did a snap exercise [near the gap] you could see, potentially, they could close that off,' U.S. Army Europe commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges told Foreign Policy."

Why is Europe getting tough on Spain now? Stratfor asks (£):

"It began Monday when the European Union's economic and financial affairs commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, warned that Spain's projections for economic growth and deficit reduction were too optimistic and that Madrid could miss its deficit targets for 2015 and 2016. The European Commission usually uses its reports on member states' budgets to separate Europe's good performers from the bad; some countries are praised for their efforts to introduce economic reforms while others are criticized and asked to do more. Madrid, which Brussels often presents as one of the positive performers, was not expecting the criticism.

Spain will hold general elections Dec. 20, and the conservative government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is basing its electoral platform on the promise of strong economic growth."

Catalonia's leader spins: Artur Mas, the leader of the Catalonia region, gives his take in Politico EU on the results of the Sept. 27 plebiscitary vote:

"The result of the elections confirmed the perception that a majority of Catalans desire for us to begin a democratic, peaceful, civil and negotiated process to achieve an independent state for Catalonia. With record participation of 77 percent, the two expressly pro-independence candidacies won almost 48 percent of the popular vote and 72 out of 135 seats, giving them an absolute majority in the parliament of Catalonia. Parties directly opposed to independence received 39 percent of the vote and 52 seats. The remaining votes, which make up more than 11 percent of all ballots cast, went to two parties that advocate Catalonia's right to self-determination, but which effectively abstained from weighing in on the question of independence as groups - so much so, in fact, that members of both parties have asked repeatedly that the votes they received be counted as neither in favor of independence nor against it."

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