realclearworld Newsletters: Europe Memo
Events are moving fast across the Continent, and on Armistice Day we bring our focus to Europe's southwestern limb -- the Iberian peninsula that (for now) holds the nation-states of Portugal and Spain, as well as the statelet Andorra and the British enclave in Gibraltar.
As reported in yesterday's memo, the parliament of Catalonia, a region in Spain's northeast that enjoys a degree of constitutionally accorded autonomy from Madrid, has passed a resolution declaring that Catalonia is no longer subject to Spanish rule or the Constitutional Court.
Today, we begin to see the outlines of how Spain will work through that very court to push against the independence process, and possibly to prosecute the Catalan leaders taking charge of the movement.
There is no shortage of pomp and nationalist flair in Barcelona:
"In his arguments in favour of the text, the head of the Together for Yes electoral list, Raul Romeva, said: ‘Some people still believe that arming the courts with legalistic weapons will silence our outcry. But there is no stopping this. If not today, then tomorrow. If not us, then it will be others. But this nation has said loud and clear that the time to go all out has come'.
"Ana Gabriel, the speaker, from CUP, addressed Spain's government, military, and courts when she said: ‘Look us in the eyes, feel our heartbeat, and you will see a joyful, lively, and combative people who are striving to be. You will not see supporters of coup d'états, authoritarianism, or impositions'."
In an editorial Monday published in English, Catalan online journal VilaWeb (which also produced the above-excerpted report) took defiance a step further, referring to the parliament's move as Catalonia's "Salt Day," recalling Mahatma Gandhi's wade along the water in defiance of the colonial British government's strict monopoly on salt production:
"The gesture of making salt was a direct challenge to British rule over Indian citizens; its fallout involved the imprisonment of eighty thousand people and made it impossible to govern India from London. The campaign showed the empire and the world that the government of British India was entirely dependent on the consent of Indian citizens.
[...]
"Up until today, Spain has needed the consent of the Catalans to uphold its government. And it has obtained it. It has relied on a consent based on the belief that coexistence was the best route, as well as on a consent based on fear of the consequences of challenging coexistence. Today, however, all of this will be over. Because today, the elected representatives of the people of Catalonia will signal to leaders in Madrid that they have lost the consent they had enjoyed for generations."
There are few areas of Spain that don't harbor some level of separatist fervor. Catalonia recalls the past glories of Aragon, a Crown that, before decadence and civil war spurred it to unify with Castile, pointed to the Mediterranean to build its own wealth and power. Centuries later, the legacy remains strong. There are still enclaves as far away as Alghero, a city on the now-Italian island of Sardinia that is known as la Barceloneta de Sardegna, where Catalan is spoken. As I've pointed out in RealClearWorld's Compass blog, "what pushed Catalans over the edge were the pretensions of the central government -- eventually codified in a rewritten, watered-down autonomy statute in 2010 -- to tell Catalans that, regardless of how they may feel, they are not a nation. What had been a legal negotiation on levels of autonomy and subsidiarity took on a different character."
The legal pushback begins now -- Spain's high court might issue a ruling on the Catalan assembly's resolution as soon as this evening -- and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy can make use, if he so chooses, of a recent reform to the Constitutional Court tailor-made to individually sanction the leaders of the secessionist movement.
Spain will go to the polls on Dec. 20.
Six Keys of the Government's Legal Offensive Against Catalonia (in Spanish)
Around the Continent
Portugal rebels: The electoral intrigue in Portugal, recently cast in this memo as yet another instance of the European Union's ill-thought-out interventions in national affairs, took another twist: The anti-austerity left pulled the plug on Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho's minority government after a mere 11 days. For Politico EU, Ivo Oliveira tells us what happens now:
"Portugal's head of state, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva, is now expected to ask [Socialist Antonio] Costa to form a government in the coming days.
"The Socialist leader has promised to put an end to what he calls ‘an obsession with austerity.' His new-found ally Jerónimo de Sousa of the Communist Party said it was ‘the end of the line for a government that made life a living hell for many Portuguese.'
"Greece's governing Syriza, which is close to Portugal's Left Bloc, congratulated the leftist alliance and said they were happy to see an anti-austerity alliance close to power in another European capital, according to the Portuguese media.
"‘I hope that [what comes next] is not chaos and that whoever comes next does not cause it,' said Maria Luís Albuquerque, the finance minister in the outgoing government."
Slow down, Turkey: Ankara received a scathing rebuke from the European Union for "serious backsliding" on matters relating to freedom of expression and the judiciary. But in a sign of just how badly Europe is leaning on Turkey to help manage and stem the flow of refugees, the report, initially due for an October release, was held until this week to honor Turkish elections. Euractiv:
"The report's publication comes just over a month after the EU announced a a refugee cooperation deal with Turkey, the main launching point for migrants coming to Europe, including a possible €3 billion in aid.
"The deal included pushing forward Turkey's long-stalled accession process and speeding up visa liberalisation for Turks travelling to the EU.
"But Erdogan and other officials have since dampened expectations, in a further sign of the troubled relationship between Ankara and Brussels."
Stuck in the middle with you ... and Putin: A brief report by B92 illustrates the juggling act that faces Serbian politicians as they negotiate their geopolitical priorities between Russia and the EU:
"Serbia ‘will not falter in the face of pressure to introduce sanctions against Russia,' Defense Minister Bratislav Gasic has said.
"Speaking on Wednesday, he stressed that ‘the EU represents the key foreign-policy goal,' but that Serbia is a militarily neutral country that will not give in to pressure and join sanctions.
"A Defense Ministry statement quoted Gasic as saying that Serbia is striving toward conducting an independent foreign policy that should protect the interests of the Serbian people."
European disintegration studies: In an essay for the New Statesman magazine, Brendan Simms, director of the Forum on Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge, and Timothy Less, director of the political risk consultancy Nova Europa and a former British diplomat, give an epic overview of how the European Union could fall apart, and fast. The essay is this week's must-read for observers of contemporary Europe, and for anyone with an interest in history. Rather than excerpting, I offer this link.
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