realclearworld Newsletters: Mideast Memo
Last week's deadly terrorist attacks in Paris have devastated France and observers all around the world. The coordinated Friday evening siege claimed by the Islamic State group, or ISIS, left 129 people dead, and has consequently forced French policymakers to reassess their government's foreign policy priorities in the Middle East. As reports emerged Sunday of French airstrikes on the jihadist organization's de facto capital of Raqqa, a spotlight now falls upon the leadership of French President Francois Hollande, argues The Guardian's Pierre Haski:
"Hollande's Syria strategy is central to the debate. France was the first, and the quickest, back in 2012, to recognise the opposition Syrian National Coalition as the ‘unique representative' of the Syrian people, thus breaking with [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad's government. Since then, this ‘moderate' opposition has not delivered, more and more marginalised as it is by the growing presence and strength of jihadi groups, including the so-called Islamic State, which claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks.
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"Until Friday, the French government was still insisting on Assad's departure as a precondition for any political settlement in Syria, putting the Syrian president on a par with Isis in blame for the country's tragedy. But France has become more and more isolated in this stand, with Russia and Iran increasingly pushing their agenda. The US listened. Only Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have applauded the French attitude, rewarding it with big arms deals."
Paris has arguably been the most vocal Western critic of the Assad government. In addition to advocating for Mr. Assad's ouster, France has also launched its own investigation into possible war crimes committed by Damascus in its battle against various rebel forces in the country.
However, on the very same morning that Paris announced its inquiry into alleged human rights abuses, Russia's parliament voted to approve the use of military force in Syria. Russia's foray into the conflict has provided the Assad regime with much needed muscle, and gives Damascus virtual veto power against international condemnation at the United Nations.
Friday's attacks also compound a lingering policy dispute in Paris, as mourning has quickly shifted to political machinations in the capital. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy -- whose recent trip to Moscow was viewed by many analysts as a direct repudiation of Hollande's handling of Syria -- has doubled down on his criticism of French policy in the wartorn region, and he has urged French officials to work with Moscow to resolve the ongoing conflict.
"Hollande is in a very tight bind, especially with the regional elections next month and his already stretched military resources," historian Robert Zaretsky told the Memo. "whatever time and energy Hollande can spare from beefing up the country's internal security institutions will be devoted to looking for a European or NATO response to ISIS."
President Assad's future -- and possible role in a transitional government -- remains the primary obstacle to any kind of unified front on Syria, and although there is reason to believe that the gap between Moscow and the West may be narrowing on the matter, it is still unclear if Russia is prepared to abandon its Syrian client.
"The Paris attacks have shown, alongside with ISIS claiming responsibility for it, that it doesn't matter if you are for Assad or against him; ISIS is your enemy. So it's not about Assad," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, following talks held by world powers this weekend in Vienna.
The Paris attacks -- in addition to recent attacks on civilian targets in Beirut and Egypt -- may force world leaders in Moscow, Paris, and elsewhere to forgo their maximalist positions, however, especially as ISIS appears to be expanding its war beyond the makeshift borders of its caliphate.
"ISIS now has a near global capability to plan and carry out devastating attacks. They or their affiliates have now mounted or inspired serious attacks in about eight countries, including France, Lebanon, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, and Belgium," said John McLaughlin, former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency. "This will put enormous additional strain on intelligence services to detect small numbers of operatives in an era when post-Snowden revelations have taught them to exercise tighter communications discipline.
"It will take more skillful and determined leadership than anyone has shown up to now to organize potential forces ranging from NATO to the Arab nations and Turkey. But it is time."
The Russian President's Strategy for Syria -- Der Spiegel
Sarkozy to Meet Putin as French Right Looks to Russia -- France 24
Francois Hollande of France Says Assad Must Go -- New York Times
France Fills the American Arms Void -- Politico
Around the Region
A gift from Vienna. Not everyone is quite so optimistic about the reported Syrian transition plan agreed to this weekend by world leaders. Mideast analyst Hassan Hassan warns that the Vienna deal, if implemented, could be a gift to the Assad regime, and perhaps even ISIS:
"The Vienna statement is a gift to the regime. It essentially categorises the anti-government forces as those willing to work with the regime towards an Assad-friendly transition and the rejectionist terrorists. This complicates the situation for non-extremist groups, especially those amiable to foreign leverage. If they are compelled to agree to the botched process, they will lose credibility, and influence, among people. And if they refuse to oblige, they might lose foreign support. Both scenarios will strengthen extremists. The prominence of extremists in the conflict is a product of this conditional support for foreign-backed factions in the first place.
"Also, lumping extremists together will naturally unify them, along with non-extremist Syrians who will not accept a solution that includes Mr Al Assad. Most of the infighting within the anti-Assad forces has been among Islamist and extremist groups, and this will probably change if they are treated together as a third force."
Offering perhaps a slight silver lining, Reuters reported Sunday that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan intends to work with Moscow on a "common list" of terrorist groups fighting the the Syrian theater.
You lost what? The Pentagon has apparently misplaced $500 million in weapons given to Yemen. Washington Post's Craig Whitlock reports:
"With Yemen in turmoil and its government splintering, the Defense Department has lost its ability to monitor the whereabouts of small arms, ammunition, night-vision goggles, patrol boats, vehicles and other supplies donated by the United States. The situation has grown worse since the United States closed its embassy in Sanaa, the capital, last month and withdrew many of its military advisers.
"In recent weeks, members of Congress have held closed-door meetings with U.S. military officials to press for an accounting of the arms and equipment. Pentagon officials have said that they have little information to go on and that there is little they can do at this point to prevent the weapons and gear from falling into the wrong hands.
"‘We have to assume it's completely compromised and gone,' said a legislative aide on Capitol Hill who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter."
How stable is Iran? Finally, Bard College professor and foreign policy analyst Walter Russell Mead examines the long-term implications of protests held last week by members of Iran's Azeri minority:
"Many people overestimate Iran's stability -- they believe that it is somehow exempt from the ethnic and sectarian tensions ripping the rest of the region apart. In fact, restive minorities loom large (Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, and others make up almost half the population), and Iran is one of the multi-ethnic multi-confessional states whose implosion has been one of the principal features of world history for the last 150 years. The makeup of Iran means that the country's leaders actually have good reason to believe that the loss of centralized power would imperil the state's stability, and it can help explain why the mullahs hold tightly on to the theocratic basis of the state: More Iranians are Shi'a than are ethnically Persian."
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