realclearworld Newsletters: Mideast Memo
Contrary to what certain presidential candidates here in the United States might say, the People's Republic of China maintains a rather light footprint throughout most of the Middle East, especially as compared to its steadily growing presence in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
However, as its economic and security interests become more tethered to the region, Beijing may be ready to exert some of its diplomatic and economic capital in the Mideast. Al-Monitor's Mohammad Ali Shabani makes the case:
"Beijing's policy of mutual respect, dignity and noninterference has had its dividends. Yet, these dividends are what paradoxically have put China in the unique position of now being able to play an important role as a proactive facilitator of dialogue. The Saudi-Iranian cold war is one of the most important challenges facing the region today."
Shabani goes on to explain the importance of China's relatively clean slate in the Middle East and its warm relations with Riyadh and Tehran. These put China in a strong position to broker an understanding between the Mideast's two polar powers, should Beijing choose to try. That is an ambitious aim, but if achieved, it could resonate throughout the region, easing hostilities and elevating China's status as a serious global power.
Beijing's energy needs, moreover, behoove it to do so. China surpassed the United States earlier this year to become the world's top importer of crude oil, much of which it purchases from the Middle East. "Oil exports from South Sudan, where Beijing has not hesitated to roll up its sleeves, only account for a few percent of total Chinese oil imports," writes Shabani. "In comparison, Tehran and Riyadh have at some points this year provided one-quarter of China's crude imports."
If a larger role for China in the Middle East seems unlikely, then consider the late arrival to the region of another rising power: the United States. Much like China today, America entered the 20th century as the proverbial new kid on the block in the Middle East. American administrations had established loose ties with sultans and other small regional rulers, but the Mideast was primarily the purview of the British and the French.
This somewhat green reputation provided the United States with a veneer of objectivity. Some Mideast nations -- even Iran, as unthinkable as that may seem now -- once viewed American involvement in the region as providing a favorable balance against traditional colonial powers.
China, however, is still likely years away from taking on a more activist role in the Middle East, and Beijing will probably continue to rely on the United States to keep the region and its sea lanes secure for the foreseeable future. Foreign Policy's Keith Johnson explains:
"China has spent years trying to build a blue-water navy that could operate far from home. Since 2008 it has maintained a long-distance anti-piracy patrol off the coast of Somalia precisely to help limit the threat that pirates pose to shipping. But despite heroic efforts, including the launch of its first aircraft carrier and a rapid naval modernization, China is still decades away from matching U.S. naval capacities, which leaves it hostage to regional instability."
China's Balancing Act in the Gulf -- CSIS
Oman Looks East -- Al-Monitor
Why Washington's Middle East Pullback Makes Sense -- Foreign Affairs
More Chinese Buyers Seek Homes in Dubai -- The National
Around the Region
Iraq flooding U.S. with oil. The United States isn't out of the Mideast oil game just yet, however. CNN's Matt Egan reports:
"The U.S. more than doubled its imports of oil from Iraq between August and September, according to a Platts analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics.
"The dramatic increase in Iraqi oil imports is only adding to the already-massive supply glut that has pushed down oil prices. Crude oil prices sank to a four-month low of $40.06 a barrel this week and they're down 12% in November alone.
[...]
"The U.S. imported 521,000 barrels of Iraqi oil per day during the final week of October. That was up from zero during several weeks in August."
Iraq's paramilitary problem. Shiite militias have become an important component of Iraq's war against the Islamic State group, filling the void left by the Iraqi army. And now they want a raise. Reuters' Stephen Kalin has the story:
"Iraqi paramilitaries seen as essential in fighting Islamic State are resisting moves to rein in their budget, highlighting the challenge of imposing government authority on one of the country's most powerful forces.
"Facing lower revenue because of declining oil prices, OPEC oil exporter Iraq is planning widespread budget cuts next year, with government expenditure set to drop by nearly 10 percent to around $95 billion.
"The paramilitary forces, which include Iranian-backed Shi'ite Muslim militias under a state-run umbrella called the Hashid Shaabi, complain that instead of accepting their request to fund 156,000 fighters next year, Baghdad plans to cut tens of thousands from its ranks."
What Iraq's Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces, or al-Hashd al-Shaabi, appear to be asking for sounds worryingly similar to the paramilitary basij model in Iran, where volunteer civilian forces, or basijis, operate separately from the Iranian army, answering directly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Indeed, hashd and basij essentially mean the same thing.
Muslims dislike ISIS. Countries with large Muslim populations overwhelming disapprove of the Islamic State group. The Pew Research Center has the numbers:
"Recent attacks in Paris, Beirut and Baghdad linked to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have once again brought terrorism and Islamic extremism to the forefront of international relations. According to newly released data that the Pew Research Center collected in 11 countries with significant Muslim populations, people from Nigeria to Jordan to Indonesia overwhelmingly expressed negative views of ISIS.
"One exception was Pakistan, where a majority offered no definite opinion of ISIS. The nationally representative surveys were conducted as part of the Pew Research Center's annual global poll in April and May this year."
The battle for Hama. Reporting from the front in Syria, journalist Mohammed al-Khatieb details the strategic importance of the centrally located city of Hama:
"Hama, in central Syria, would provide a link from the capital Damascus, in the south, to northern Syria. Hama is also Syria's fourth-largest city in terms of population, where about 750,000 people live (according to 2010 statistics). The opposition sees an opportunity to gain the people's trust in Hama, where in 2011, hundreds of thousands of citizens protested against the regime. However, the city remained under the regime's control and has not seen any armed action, unlike cities in northern Syria."
Uppers for Islamist warriors. Fighters in Syria aren't fueled by fundamentalism and the desire for freedom alone. The Washington Post reports on the rampant use of Captagon in the wartorn country:
"A powerful amphetamine tablet based on the original synthetic drug known as ‘fenethylline,' Captagon quickly produces a euphoric intensity in users, allowing Syria's fighters to stay up for days, killing with a numb, reckless abandon.
"‘You can't sleep or even close your eyes, forget about it,' said a Lebanese user, one of three who appeared on camera without their names for a BBC Arabic documentary that aired in September. ‘And whatever you take to stop it, nothing can stop it.'"
"'I felt like I own the world high,' another user said. ‘Like I have power nobody has. A really nice feeling.'"
The use of uppers and other amphetamines on the warfront is certainly nothing new, but it can lead to pervasive drug problems long after the war, much as it did in Germany following World War II.
Editor's Note
The Mideast Memo will be taking a short break for the Thanksgiving holiday, but will resume on Monday, Nov. 30.
Feedback
Questions, comments, or complaints? Feel free to send us an email, or reach out on Twitter @kevinbsullivan.
