realclearworld Newsletters: Mideast Memo
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi sits in a rather unenviable and at times impossible position. With just one year under his belt as the country's premier, it would be difficult to give al-Abadi's administration poor marks without first accounting for all of the factors both domestic and external that have constrained the Iraqi leader's ability to accomplish much of anything in the country.
Facing a real war against the militant Islamic State group in the country's north and a political battle in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, al-Abadi now finds himself stuck between the regional wranglings of larger powers such as Iran, Russia, and the United States.
The Islamic State group's advances and territorial gains in the past year, moreover, have provided Tehran with an opportunity to further insert itself into Iraqi politics, and many of the modern-day Hoplite fighters currently fighting ISIS's jihadist army -- more formally known as Popular Mobilization Units -- have been trained and paid by Tehran, from whom many of these Shiite fighters take their marching orders.
These same Shiite militias have become a political force in Iraq, and they have pressed an already budget-crunched Baghdad in recent weeks to provide them with more resources and funds in their fight against ISIS.
When summertime power cuts and concerns over mounting corruption in the capital led to protests throughout Iraq's Shiite heartland, al-Abadi saw an opportunity to slash spending and eliminate seemingly superfluous cabinet positions, such as the country's multiple vice presidencies. Backed by influential Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, it appeared as if al-Abadi had finally found his mandate to govern.
The premier's reform push sputtered rather quickly, however, and one of the vice presidents he dismissed earlier this year simply refuses to leave. Al-Abadi lost the support of the Iraqi parliament last month, and his proposed cuts to civil servant salaries even cost him the support of the Grand Ayatollah.
Al-Abadi appears to have overplayed his hand, and his move to stem corruption by eliminating plush patronage positions in the government only served to alienate the very Iraqi political operatives he counted on to fuel his reform agenda. Worse yet, it was probably unconstitutional.
"The constitution requires that the president have at least one vice president, and the 2011 law that provides a legal framework for the appointment and removal of vice presidents gives the prime minister no role in this," writes political risk analyst Kirk Sowell, an expert on Iraqi politics.
Compounding the prime minister's troubles is the fact that internal political disputes in Baghdad now hold larger geopolitical implications. While al-Abadi has largely hinged his hopes on the support of the United States, his Iran-aligned rivals in the capital have openly invited Russian intervention in the country, a move that would most certainly agitate Washington, and likely alienate Iraq's Sunni minority.
Moreover, while al-Abadi's colleagues in Baghdad antagonize Washington, his allies in Washington appear to be doing their very best to antagonize pols in Baghdad. The United States has pressed the Iraqi government in recent days to expedite its efforts to retake the ISIS-held city of Ramadi, and just this week the prime minister found himself fending off calls by U.S. senators for a larger American troop presence in the country.
Thus, the Iraqi prime minister finds himself jockeying for power in a capital city with ever diminishing control over its own country's fate. It is a thankless and diminished position, and it's one al-Abadi might not be long for.
Abadi's Failed Reforms -- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Defeating ISIS Won't Bring Stability to Iraq -- Al-Monitor
The Man Holding Iraq Together -- RealClearWorld
Iraq Still Paying for Burning Kuwaiti Oil Wells -- Al Arabiya
Around the Region
Where ISIS thrives. It's been well-documented that during the early days of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, prisons often served as ripe recruiting grounds for the Sunni radicals who would go on to form the so-called Islamic State. A similar crisis may now be brewing in the increasingly crowded prisons of Egypt. The Intercept's Murtaza Hussain reports:
"Egypt's prisons, notoriously brutal under the military regimes that have ruled the country throughout the post-colonial era, have in the past served as a breeding ground for radical movements. Sayyid Qutb, considered one of the intellectual founders of the modern jihadi movement, wrote his most incendiary works after being imprisoned and tortured by the regime of Gamal Abdel Nasser, which executed him in 1966. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri also suffered extreme torture during the years he spent in Egyptian government prisons, an experience he would cite often in later years and as having had a formative effect on shaping his worldview.
[...]
"Although the Sisi regime claims to have stabilized the country through its repressive measures, [Brookings expert Shadi] Hamid says that its achievements are likely to prove illusory. ‘The whole myth of authoritarian stability is very appealing to people, but these heavy-handed tactics that allow no room for political dissent are already backfiring.' Adding that ‘we are already seeing an increasingly sophisticated insurgency in the Sinai and escalating terrorist attacks like the downing of a Russian airliner,' Hamid says that the human rights abuses of the regime and deteriorating security situation are inextricably related. ‘As long as ISIS can point to the miserable state of Egypt's democratic process, it becomes more difficult for others to rebut their message.'"
Lebanon's Assadist in Chief? Reuters takes a look at the unlikely rise of Suleiman Franjieh, a childhood friend of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and quite possibly the next president of Lebanon:
"The idea of Suleiman Franjieh ... becoming head of state has taken aback many Lebanese, not least because of who tabled it: Saad al-Hariri, a Sunni politician who leads an alliance forged from opposition to Syrian influence in Lebanon. He would become prime minister under the deal.
"It is no less startling because of the backing it would require from Saudi Arabia and Iran, rival states that wield decisive influence over Lebanon's competing factions and which are in conflict elsewhere in the region, including in Syria.
[...]
"Franjieh's ties to the Assad family date to his childhood when his grandfather, the late President Suleiman Franjieh, took him on trips to Damascus to visit his friend, the late President Hafez al-Assad. Franjieh used to hunt with Bashar al-Assad's older brother, Basil, who died in a 1994 car crash.
"He was orphaned in 1978 when a Christian militia attacked his family home in northern Lebanon, killing his father, mother and sister. Geagea has been accused of responsibility for that civil war time attack, though he has denied participating."
Lebanon has been without a president for 18 months.
Turkey's wage war. Finally, Al-Monitor contributor Mehmet Cetingulec examines the political and economic ramifications of Turkey's pending minimum wage increase:
"One of the key campaign issues of the June 7 and Nov. 1 general elections was a minimum wage increase. When the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) promised to hike the monthly minimum to 1,500 Turkish lira ($513) from about 1,000 lira, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) countered by promising 1,300 lira. After the AKP won the Nov. 1 election with resounding success, the party said the new monthly minimum wage, about $445, will take effect Jan. 1."
Turkey's business community, most notably its textile manufacturers, are unhappy with the proposed increase, however, and these employers could look to undocumented (and much cheaper) Syrian refugee labor to cut costs and skirt the new wage mandate.
"Syrians in Turkey are concentrated in the Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Kahramanmaras, Adana and Mersin provinces of Istanbul," explains Cetingulec, and are often "hired at half the minimum wage in these provinces."
These Syrian refugees are drawn to the country's large garment industry, however their inability to easily obtain work permits makes them ripe for exploitation.
Feedback
Questions, comments, or complaints? Feel free to send us an email, or reach out on Twitter @kevinbsullivan.
