Europe's Hot December

December promises intrigue at all levels in Europe. Here are a few events to watch as the holiday season approaches.

Supranational: Long gone is the day when European summits generated few headlines (and even less interest) outside of Brussels. A glance at the perfunctory agenda for the summit being held on Dec. 17-18 shows how significant and explosive these meets have become.

Migration is the most combustible on an agenda of hot-button items. The vast differences among member states on how to handle the migration crisis will likely come to a head. Keep an eye on the statements of representatives from the Netherlands and Poland. The former assumes the mantle of the rotating six-month EU presidency in January, and as our own correspondent Kaj Leers has detailed, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has issued some dramatic proclamations on the significance of the issue for the Union as a whole:

"[R]utte warned that the European Union should circle the wagons and finally close and guard its external borders to stem the refugee tide. If EU nations fail to live up to their commitments, said Rutte -- commitments such as actually wiring the money promised to frontier organizations such as Frontex, and actually sending the trained border guards they have promised to that effort -- the European Union will suffer the fate of the Roman Empire."

Poland earlier this year voted along with the majority consensus on measures to distribute refugees among the member states. The vote, unusually for a matter so crucial to national sovereignty, was determined by a system known as Qualified Majority Voting, rather than being decided anonymously, so Poland may have voted along simply to avoid finding itself in the minority. But the far-right Law and Justice party has since swept into power, and a more confrontational stance at EU fora is to be expected.The European Union is crucial to Poland's fortunes, and has until now enjoyed broad support among Poles, so the question is how far Warsaw will go in confronting Brussels.

National: If we could identify broad, overarching themes to characterize Europe's existential struggle, one of the most important narrative threads is how, since 2005 but especially in recent years, the European Union has shifted to being an elite-led project to one that is increasingly accountable to national voters. The next big election approaches this Dec. 20, in Spain. Since the end of the Franco dictatorship, Spain has alternated governments between the centre-right Popular Party, and the centre-left Socialists, but the politics of austerity have upended all calculations. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the PP hopes to hold off the insurgent Podemos party from the left, and the Ciudadanos party to the right. Polls are deadlocked, and it appears very doubtful that any party will emerge with a clear majority. Stay tuned to the Europe Memo for upcoming expert commentary as the vote approaches.

Regional: Before Spain votes, France does. Not in national elections -- those come in 2017 -- but voters across the country will choose leaders across France's regions. (For more details, and if you'd like to sharpen up your French reading skills, see link below.) The upcoming vote will help show the degree to which France still backs President Francois Hollande in the aftermath of another terrorist attack on French soil. They will also allow observers to take the temperature of the anti-EU, anti-immigration National Front party. Party leader Marine Le Pen is running for governor in the northern Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie region, and the broad consensus is that her campaign is a warm-up for national elections. The growing prospect that she could be competitive in 2017, perhaps even winning the presidency in a second round of voting, is causing no small level of discomfort. Take the words of Malek Boutih, a French lawmaker from Hollande's ruling Socialist Party, who believes Le Pen is set to win:

"‘I don't dare to say it but I think that 2017 [the presidential election] is a bit of a done deal,' Boutih, who is in charge of social affairs for the Socialists, told BFMTV Sunday.

"‘My fear is not that the Left will lose, it's that the Republic will lose in 2017. In the current state of things, I don't see how Marine Le Pen cannot win the presidential [election].'

"In public, Socialists tend to argue that if Hollande chooses to run for reelection in 2017, he has a chance of winning. Despite the president's popularity being at a record low level, Socialists argue he could still win more votes than either [former President Nicolas] Sarkozy or Le Pen, both highly divisive figures.

"In private, the message is different."

More on This:

Spanish General Elections (in Spanish): El Pais

French Regional Elections (in French): Le Monde

Around the Continent

Battleground Montenegro: Much to the chagrin of Russia, NATO formally invited the small Balkan country of Montenegro to join the alliance, kicking off accession talks. CNN:

"Peskov declined to say what Russian President Vladimir Putin will do about the Montenegro invitation, saying, ‘Now, there are other priorities.'

"But Viktor Ozerov, the chair of the Federation Council's Committee on Defense and Security, told another state news agency that Russia will end military and technical cooperation with Montenegro if its membership becomes official.

"'Montenegro should recognize that a lot of programs that have been previously realized by it with Russia ... will be impossible in the context of its NATO accession,' Ozerov told RIA Novosti."

As Russia threatens to axe joint programs with Montenegro, neighboring nations are measuring their own reactions. The Serbian parliament is taking a cautious approach, with lawmakers emphasizing the importance of military neutrality, B92 reports:

"However, they also said that Serbia within the framework of neutrality should enhance cooperation with NATO.

"Ruling SNS party PM Dragan Sormaz said that cooperation that Serbia now has with NATO is good, because it provides ‘security and standards in the military.'

"Beta is reporting that ‘asked whether Serbia should be thinking about membership in NATO after Montenegro was invited' Sormaz said that this issue is not a topic because ‘neither has NATO invited Serbia, nor has Serbia said it wants to be a member.'

"Head of the parliamentary group of the ruling SPS Djordje Milicevic said that Serbia should not change its position of military neutrality."

Don't forget Denmark: The Danes are holding a referendum Dec. 3 on whether to fully join the European Union's common rules on justice and home affairs. Denis MacShane, formerly the United Kingdom's top minister for Europe, writes for Euractiv on the significance of the vote:

"Now the Danexit forces in Denmark hope to get a rejection of EU integration on policing and justice tomorrow. The isolationist propaganda of the 'No' camp has been reinforced by the Paris attacks, and Danish fears of ever-increasing numbers of refugees heading to Denmark.

"But so has the main argument for a 'Yes' as Danes are as keen as anyone on wanting anyone accused of terrorist or major crimes being sent back to Denmark automatically. If Danish police and judges cannot cooperate with the rest of the EU, Denmark is a tempting place for terrorists, and other criminals to hide.

"If the Danes vote 'No' to reversing the 1992 opt-out and rejecting more EU integration this will be seized upon by the Brexit camp in Britain to show that when given the chance to vote in a referendum, people say 'No' to Europe."

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