realclearworld Newsletters: Mideast Memo
For Syria's anti-government rebels, the Azaz corridor -- named after the small northern Syrian town near the Turkish border -- has served as a primary artery for the Syrian rebellion and an important pipeline to the contested city of Aleppo. Up until now, this essential supply route has been under the control of an assortment of rebel forces, but the addition of Russian support and air power has left neighboring Turkey feeling very anxious. The Washington Institute's Fabrice Balanche explains:
"[T]he Azaz corridor has become the epicenter of the war, with hostilities intensifying throughout the area over the past two weeks. Everything seems to indicate that a Kurdish offensive supported by Russian aviation is underway to the west, coordinated with a developing campaign by the Syrian army and proxy militias on the outskirts of Aleppo. Meanwhile, Russia is apparently not taking action against the IS forces pushing into the area from the north. And the prospect of direct Turkish intervention looms over the fighting, especially if the corridor should fall.
[...]
"In the northern part of the Azaz corridor, opposition between Kurds and Turkmens is the main basis of conflict. The strong Turkish support to Turkmen rebels ... is lending an international dimension to the sectarian war.
"Ankara wants to protect its allies in Azaz, hoping that it will be the base for reconquering IS territories in the eastern part of Aleppo province once the group is sufficiently weakened by Western coalition airstrikes. Otherwise, the PYD and/or the Syrian army will be the ones who benefit from the Islamic State's withdrawal."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has insisted that it is his country's prerogative to protect its Turkmen "brothers and sisters." In neighboring Iraq, however, it would appear ethnic Turkmen have become more expendable. Al-Monitor's Fehim Tastekin provides some background on Turkish activities in northern Iraq following its recent, albeit brief, foray into territory near the city of Mosul:
"Ankara is trying to legitimize its military presence at Mosul on two elements: training Kurdistan's peshmerga defense force and the need to protect the Sunnis.
"Erdogan, while stressing that Turkish troops were training the peshmerga, said, ‘Our troops in Bashiqa could be increased or reduced according to the number of peshmerga they are training.' To further confront criticisms, Erdogan also came up with the argument that ‘Sunnis need protection.' In an interview with Al Jazeera TV, Erdogan accused Iran and Iraq with sectarianism and said, ‘What will happen to the Sunnis here? There are Sunni Arabs, Sunni Turkmens and Sunni Kurds. What about their security?'"
Tastekin goes on to note that "What is new and interesting is that Ankara has abandoned its protective patronage of Turkmens ... but instead focuses on shaping a regional policy based on Sunni Arabs and Kurds."
Iraq's Turkmen -- much like other ethnic and religious minorities in northern Iraq -- have accused the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government and its peshmerga forces of engaging in a campaign of "Kurdization" in its territories. However, Erbil has become an important ally and trading partner for Turkey, so Ankara is more willing to ignore the grievances of Iraq's Turkmen than those of Syria.
Turkey is, in truth, more concerned about who will fill the void left by ISIS in these territories once the jihadi organization is weakened or ultimately defeated. Ankara's nightmare scenario is one in which Kurdish forces allied with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, are left holding considerable chunks of territory along the Turkish border once the dust settles on the conflict.
The Struggle for Azaz Corridor -- Washington Institute for Near East Policy
When Russia Howls, Turkey Moves -- War on the Rocks
Iraq's Turkmen Between a Rock and a Hard Place -- Middle East Eye
Confusion Rules in Kurdish Syria -- Voice of America
Around the Region
Chaos in Turkey's southeast. Two reports this week from Al-Monitor detail just how unstable the situation is becoming in Turkey's restive southeast, where PKK guerrilla fighters, along with allied youth militias, have dug in and declared "self-rule" in their fight against the Turkish government. "The 'self-rule' upheaval has so far produced trenches, barricades, tunnels under residential buildings, bullet-riddled houses, and thousands of people fleeing their homes. If it goes on like this, the 'self-rulers' will have no one to rule in their neighborhoods," writes Al-Monitor's Mahmut Bozarslan. Read more here and here.
Saddam Hussein's ISIS legacy. "Saddam-era officers have been a powerful factor in the rise of Islamic State ... The Baathists have strengthened the group's spy networks and battlefield tactics and are instrumental in the survival of its self-proclaimed Caliphate, according to interviews with dozens of people." Read more here.
What Iran could have been. RealClearEnergy Editor Bill Murray compares Iran to its Mideast neighbor Qatar, and explains just how badly sanctions have hindered the Islamic Republic's growth potential: "Ever since the discovery of South Pars, the world's largest natural gas field, in 1990 off the coast of Iran in the Persian Gulf, Iran has been trying to develop the massive resource that would first supply domestic needs and then export gas to Asia and Europe. Its cross-Gulf neighbor Qatar, which shares the same massive gas field, was able during that same period of time to become the largest natural gas exporter in the world, exporting 10 bcf a day, and gaining the title as having the highest per capita national income in the world as a result."
The case for Syria's local councils. "In the midst of war, the moderate opposition is trying to build a state from the ground up, and they see themselves as laying the foundations on which Syrians may one day construct a government that is accountable to the people. Their work means that the battle for Syria is not the duel between Assad and Isis that we have come to think of in the west." Read the rest.
A new battle for the Hanish Islands. Twenty years ago today Yemen and Eritrea engaged in a brief conflict over a group of islands in the Red Sea. Al Jazeera explains why these strategically important isles are back in the headlines.
Feedback
Questions, comments, or complaints? Feel free to send us an email, or reach out on Twitter @kevinbsullivan.
