realclearworld Newsletters: Europe Memo
When the Front National party that has long been the staple of France's far right emerged as the top vote-getter in the first round of the country's regional elections on Dec. 6, foreign policy analyst George Friedman marked the moment as a clear geopolitical signal, heralding a point of no return in the rise of formerly fringe parties on Europe's left and right that can be variously described as populist, nationalist, and anti-European Union.
"[F]or the first time, neither of the mainstream parties took the lead in these elections. The National Front did. This led the party's leader Marine Le Pen to declare the National Front ‘without contest the first party of France.'
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"France is the first major European nation in which we have seen an anti-EU and anti-immigration party take a leading position, even if it turns out to be temporary. It is, therefore, time to turn our model to considering how anti-EU rule in a large part of Europe might play out."
When, amid stronger turnout and with some political maneuvering that saw the mainstream Socialist Party pull back its candidates in some regions, the Front failed to win a single region in Sunday's second round of voting, Gideon Rachman pointed out the inverse. Rachman wrote that in Europe, an internationalist view still prevails over the revanchist nationalist visions of parties like the Front National, despite those parties' undeniable growth.
"Marine Le Pen, the leader of the FN, had said that politics is increasingly a contest between nationalists and globalists. This weekend's events show that the globalists are still just about in control. But the margins of victory and defeat are narrowing. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen took 17 per cent as the FN candidate in the second round of a French presidential election. This time, his daughter and granddaughter (far-right politics is a family affair in France) scored well over 40 per cent in regional contests. On a national level, the FN is now scoring less than 30 per cent."
So what to deduce?
It seems wise to avoid sweeping generalizations. The first-round results of course attracted superlatives. Seeing Front National surpass 40 percent in the first round is stunning. The trend is unmistakable.
But the trend is not new. Not in Europe, and not in France itself. As Rachman reminded, a Le Pen has made it to a second round of voting before -- and in 2002, that was during a presidential election. Regional votes are of questionable significance in highly centralized France -- indeed, turnout was low in the first round and increased dramatically in the second -- making them the perfect forum to cast a protest vote. Conditions for a strong performance by Front National were ideal, in the aftermath of a year in which terror has struck France repeatedly, and with Europe, and by association President Francois Hollande, taking much of the blame for a stagnant economy and high unemployment.
Le Monde today proffers that its second round defeat suggests Le Pen's party may have found its electoral ceiling.
"Strong in the first round, but weak in the second, is the FN doomed, as was the post-war Communist Party, to become a ‘solitary force and a useless party, because it never takes power?'
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"That's the question that could preoccupy the far-right formation for the next year and a half, until the 2017 presidential election.
"‘This defeat, or semi-defeat, in the regionals puts in doubt the FN's strategy, and its political identity. It does not have the strength to grow,' said sociologist Sylvain Crepon."
Le Monde goes on to say that FN will consider seeking expanded support among other right-wing formations. In other words, to reach the next level, it may have to moderate its stances. While the rise of populist parties is, to say the least, well documented, and without a doubt is redrawing the contours of politics across Europe, the instinct for moderation is stronger still. The question is whether Europe's mainstream politicians can harness that instinct.
Around the Continent
Spanish small fries: Spain is sure to emerge a more fragmented polity after its Dec. 20 elections, writes Politico EU's Jan Marot, and the country's seventy-odd political parties "span a lurid range from radical left-wing to radical right-wing: neo- and not-so-neo Fascists, as well as libertarian, animal rights, feminist, and syndicalist factions, not to mention some impressively freakish outfits like Escaños en Blanco ("Seats in White") or Muerte al Sistema ("Death to the System")." Read all about them here.
Saving Schengen: The European Commission knows it is running out of time to turn down the temperature on the refugee crisis, and at the summit of Europe's national leaders taking place in Brussels on Thursday, officials will introduce a proposal for the EU to take over control of sensitive points along EU borders. "Rescuing Greece from a messy departure from the single currency took years of grinding negotiations, and approval for the new border system could get bogged down in similar procedures involving national governments and the European Parliament," writes the New York Times' James Kanter.
"The proposals already face opposition from countries that suspect a blunt power grab by Brussels intended to diminish their national sovereignty." Read more here.
Troubles in Kosovo: "Kosovo has illegally arrested its main opposition leader. The European Parliament can, and should, take a strong stance in defence of democracy in Kosovo," argues Andrea Lorenzo Capussela in Euractiv.
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