With one year to go before the 2017 election, France's socialist president, Francois Hollande, is fighting for his political life. After boldly stating in the past that he would not stand for re-election should unemployment remain high, he must now also worry about a challenge from within his own party. Hollande's last and only chance is a rerun of the 2012 election against then-incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, the only candidate who appears less popular than Hollande.
Late in 2015 Hollande hinted that should unemployment not drop significantly in 2016, he would not seek re-election, allowing his Parti Socialiste to arrange a primary to elect another candidate from its ranks. Some of Hollande's cabinet ministers are openly revving up their campaign engines, among them Economic Minister Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Macron recently criticized Hollande's reform policies, or rather the lack thereof, while Valls has outpolled his boss for months.
In a last-ditch effort to decrease unemployment numbers, Hollande announced an emergency plan in January that was roundly trashed by the French press -- and, somewhat surprisingly, his own economic minister, Macron. The public criticism of Hollande by Macron and Valls is a testament to Hollande's weakness as leader of his own party and his poor chances at remaining its candidate.
Hope lies with Sarkozy
If Hollande hopes to remain in the Elysée presidential palace in 2017, he must pray for the opposition to make the mistake of electing Nicolas Sarkozy as its candidate for the presidency.
Left-wing voters and many independents may have soured on Hollande, but in general they dislike Sarkozy even more. If the choice is between a renewed Hollande presidency or the spectre of a second coming of Sarkozy -- or Marine Le Pen entering the Elysée -- polls show many French on the left will grudgingly turn out to vote Hollande again.
Hollande aims to make use of France's two-tier election system. Elections are held in two rounds. In a battle with Sarkozy and Le Pen, Hollande aims to beat Sarkozy in the first round, thus becoming the candidate to whom France will rally to beat Le Pen in the second round. Ironically, Sarkozy is betting on the same, hoping to beat Hollande in the first round.
Yet it is by no means a foregone conclusion that Sarkozy will be the candidate for Les Républicains, the party he established on the ruins of his former party, the Union for a Popular Movement. Sarkozy is a divisive figure. He lost against Hollande in 2012 in part because many of his voters stayed home, disappointed by his presidency and by lingering rumors of political corruption.
Unfortunately for both Hollande and Sarkozy, other candidates on the right -- such as former prime minister and current mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppé -- are polling higher than Sarkozy to lead Les Républicains in 2017. Polls show that Juppé would beat Sarkozy in the Républicains primary.
Although Sarkozy's permanent leadership of Les Républicains was never taken for granted, his chances at heading the party into the 2017 elections were dealt another blow during regional elections last December, when the Front National of Marine Le Pen made inroads in territories that were until then seen as secure for Les Républicains. It was thanks to a number of left-wing voters turning out to vote for Sarkozy's regional candidates in the second round to keep out the Front National that Les Républicains eked out a pyrrhic victory in many places.
Contenders for Les Républicains leadership such as Francois Fillon, a former prime minister under Sarkozy, and Alain Juppé took notice, openly criticizing Sarkozy for the party's weak performance.
Yet a rerun of 2012 may prove problematic for both Hollande and Sarkozy, as they could very well both lose to Marine Le Pen thanks to turnout. Because even though Hollande stands a real chance of beating Sarkozy, polls show that most French don't want such a rematch.
(AP Photo)
The views expressed here are the author's own.
