http://www.realclearworld.com/ en Copyright 2008 Sat, 11 Feb 2012 08:18:01 -0600 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/?v=3.33 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Notwithstanding the never-ending stream of all those based-on-reliable-intelligence-sources analyses, it is doubtful whether these same analysts would be willing to bet whatever is left of their 401K retirement accounts on their predictions that Israel will - or will not - attack Iranian nuclear sites this year. And while research institutions have conducted interesting exercises to try to figure out the military, diplomatic and economic repercussions of a confrontation between Israel and Iran, the dictum that no military plan survives the contact with the enemy applies also here - in... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/11/silver_lining_in_an_iran-israel_war_99889.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/11/silver_lining_in_an_iran-israel_war_99889.html Leon Hadar Leon Hadar 2012/02 02/11/2012/00/00/00 Sat, 11 Feb 2012 08:17:58 -0600 President Sarkozy wants France to become more like Germany. In a recent speech he made 15 positive references to the German economic model. Unlike France, he argued, Germany had reformed its economy and was reaping the rewards in terms of improved competitiveness and superior economic performance. He bemoaned the alleged decline in French industrial prowess and praised Germany's success at defending its industrial base. Is Sarkozy right to be so critical of French performance? And would it make sense for France to emulate the German model? Sarkozy is certainly right that Germany is a... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/france_doesnt_need_to_be_more_like_germany_99892.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/france_doesnt_need_to_be_more_like_germany_99892.html Simon Tilford Simon Tilford 2012/02 02/10/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:03:29 -0600 OTTAWA (Reuters) - For Brits grappling with the idea of Scottish independence, it may be worth looking across the Atlantic. In 1995, residents of Quebec voted on whether the province should separate from Canada. That referendum - narrowly won by the pro-Canada camp with just 50.6 percent of the vote - has an important lesson for Scots keen to end Scotland's 300-year union with England, and for the British establishment, which wants them to stay: the wording of the referendum question and the rules around it can help determine whether the country will stay in one piece. "It was very,... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/quebec_lessons_for_scotland_in_how_to_pop_the_question_99891.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/quebec_lessons_for_scotland_in_how_to_pop_the_question_99891.html Randall Palmer Randall Palmer 2012/02 02/10/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:29:55 -0600 Could Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, or significantly hinder traffic passing through it? A recent decision by the European Union to impose a total embargo on the purchase of Iranian oil has prompted threats from Tehran to close the world's most important oil chokepoint. However, an assessment of military capabilities deployed in the area, and of probable tactics, suggests that Iran would find it difficult or unpalatable to cause major disruption. According to the United States Energy Information Administration, 17 million barrels of oil passed through the strait every day in 2011, or... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/irans_disruptive_options_in_hormuz_99890.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/irans_disruptive_options_in_hormuz_99890.html International Institute for Strategic Studies International Institute for Strategic Studies 2012/02 02/10/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 07:53:41 -0600 At a time when the rest of the world marvels at - or perhaps dreads - China's rise, Beijing perceives a serious weakness in its own armor: the lack of soft power. For all its economic woes, the West still possesses ample soft power as evidenced by its cultural domination. Behind China's worries also lurk fears about regime stability. "The overall strength of Chinese culture and its international influence is not commensurate with China's international status," President Hu Jintao wrote in a January article. "The international culture of the West is strong while... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/chinas_soft_power_mission_99888.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/chinas_soft_power_mission_99888.html Frank Ching Frank Ching 2012/02 02/10/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:29:02 -0600 When it began last March, the Syrian revolution appeared to be a textbook example for a peaceful uprising by a people united against state brutality. For weeks, videos documented the determination of the mostly youthful protesters, chanting their demands for freedom and political participation only to be faced with bullets, arrests, torture, and execution. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad reacted with a series of gestures whose insincerity was swiftly revealed. A few hundred prisoners were released while thousands more were arrested, with many dying in custody. The decades-old state of... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/syria_stares_into_the_abyss_99887.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/10/syria_stares_into_the_abyss_99887.html Hassan Mneimneh Hassan Mneimneh 2012/02 02/10/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:14:05 -0600 Since President Obama came to office, unconditional engagement with Iran has been official U.S. policy and total rejection of engagement has been official Iranian policy. The president has sent several letters to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proposing various types of engagement, but all these ideas have been rebuffed. In March 2010, when the president said "Faced with an extended hand, Iran's leaders have shown only a clenched fist," the ayatollah accused him of deceitfully offering a "metal hand inside a velvet glove." It's time to... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/09/time_to_bypass_iran_supreme_leader__99886.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/09/time_to_bypass_iran_supreme_leader__99886.html Mehdi Khalaji Mehdi Khalaji 2012/02 02/09/2012/00/00/00 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:02:18 -0600 Singapore - The release of the Pentagon budget late last month made clear just how the U.S. military will reach President Obama's goal of becoming "leaner." The Army will shrink 13%, Marines will decrease by 20,000, six Air Force fighter squadrons will be deactivated and the Navy will make do with fewer ships. In Asia though, even as the U.S.'s means shrink, the administration is claiming to increase America's role. After months of uneasily watching Washington's budget debates, Asian allies are increasingly fearful that proposed cuts will reduce... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/09/defense_cuts_saps_obamas_asia_pivot_99885.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/09/defense_cuts_saps_obamas_asia_pivot_99885.html Michael Auslin Michael Auslin 2012/02 02/09/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:29:37 -0600 One year after the Egyptian military bowed to the demands of the Tahrir Square crowds and forced President Mubarak from office, Egypt is still struggling to complete the first phase of the transition process. The country is caught in a vicious circle that risks derailing its move toward democracy, leading to more uncertainty and violence. The fundamental lack of agreement on the appropriate steps of a transition process and the constant changes introduced by the military or demanded by protesters and political parties are emerging as the real stumbling blocks to the formation of a new... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/08/escaping_egypts_vicious_circle_99883.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/08/escaping_egypts_vicious_circle_99883.html Marina Ottaway Marina Ottaway 2012/02 02/08/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 08 Feb 2012 06:43:38 -0600 This week marks the final day the celebration of the Chinese New Year, the Year of the Dragon, a lunar calendar event that occurs once every 12 years. Dragon years have deep psychological resonance for the Chinese, as the dragon symbolizes transformation. But the trajectory of that transformation is not always for the better: the dragon has two faces, and it's never clear which side will be revealed During the last Dragon year, 2000, China saw tremendous economic growth and prosperity. But in perhaps the worst Dragon year in modern Chinese history, 1976, an earthquake demolished the city... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/08/enter_the_dragon_99880.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/08/enter_the_dragon_99880.html Lianchao Han Lianchao Han 2012/02 02/08/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:15:07 -0600 For hundreds of years, Poland suffered from an overbearing Germany that trampled on the rights of the Polish nation, occupied the country, and, at times, worked to extinguish the Polish nation-state entirely. No wonder that there is a residue of skepticism and caution in Poland when it comes to relations with its big neighbor to the west. A healthy distance and dose of hedging have long been the default position of the country's foreign policy. Poland's accession to the European Union has changed all that. Nearly eight years on, Poland is rephrasing its German question, and in a... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/poland_and_germany_how_close_is_too_close_99882.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/poland_and_germany_how_close_is_too_close_99882.html Michal Baranowski & Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff Michal Baranowski & Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff 2012/02 02/07/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:28:27 -0600 U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta suggested last week that the United States could wrap up combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of 2013, well before the longstanding 2014 deadline when full control is to be ceded to Kabul. Troops would remain in Afghanistan until 2014, as agreed upon at the 2010 Lisbon Summit, and would be engaged in two roles until at least 2014 and perhaps even later. One role would be continuing the training of Afghan security forces. The other would involve special operations troops carrying out capture or kill operations against high-value targets. Along with... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/afghanistan_moving_toward_a_distant_endgame_99879.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/afghanistan_moving_toward_a_distant_endgame_99879.html George Friedman George Friedman 2012/02 02/07/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 07 Feb 2012 06:22:33 -0600 For some time now, Republican hawks like Sen. John McCain and Rep. Howard P. 'Buck' McKeon have been saying that our military budget is inadequate for the threats we face. They like to gripe that President Barack Obama is orchestrating the decline of American power. Some of this is pure partisanship. Republicans criticize Democrats just as Democrats criticized President George W. Bush. The hawks, though, have a special devotion to the military budget. In their view, some military spending is good; more is even better. But if overspending on the military and promoting the United... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/why_does_us_pay_to_protect_prosperous_allies_99878.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/why_does_us_pay_to_protect_prosperous_allies_99878.html Christopher Preble Christopher Preble 2012/02 02/07/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 07 Feb 2012 06:20:45 -0600 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning of a possible world recession came in parallel with fears expressed at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos about the spread of protests across the world. Given that Oxford Research Group (ORG) has long argued that the widening wealth-poverty divide is both damaging to communities and a danger to peace, do the current protests, such as the "Occupy" movement, point to a larger global trend or are they isolated, short-term and probably irrelevant? To examine this, it is helpful to look at Western protests in relation to more deep-seated... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/a_world_divided_-_or_coming_together_99877.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/07/a_world_divided_-_or_coming_together_99877.html Paul Rogers Paul Rogers 2012/02 02/07/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 06 Feb 2012 07:50:21 -0600 An anxious world, watching for signs of instability after the death of Kim Jong Il, has been reassured for the time being. After 37 years of brutal rule marked by firing squads and concentration camps, a father's arrangements for transfer of power to his third son, Kim Jong Un, appear to be moving along smoothly. But in the end, Kim's legitimacy and political survival depend on whether or not he can resolve the ever-present threat of hunger and achieve economic reforms that could obviate a regime collapse. The line of responsibility is clear: In a fresh burst of personality cult,... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/04/hunger_pain_tests_north_korean_succession_99876.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/04/hunger_pain_tests_north_korean_succession_99876.html Shim Jae Hoon Shim Jae Hoon 2012/02 02/04/2012/00/00/00 Sat, 04 Feb 2012 07:35:02 -0600 The German idea of sending Athens a 'budget commissioner' was daft. Berlin itself could not tolerate such interference in its fiscal sovereignty (the constitutional court would never allow it). But to restrict such budgetary oversight to Greece alone would be disdainful and a political non-starter. The idea predictably caused outrage in Greece. Chancellor Angela Merkel has quietly dropped the proposal but the underlying problem persists: Greece's donors - not only Germany but also other EU governments and the IMF, no longer trust Greek politicians to turn their country... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/04/greeces_real_challenge_99875.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/04/greeces_real_challenge_99875.html Katinka Barysch Katinka Barysch 2012/02 02/04/2012/00/00/00 Sat, 04 Feb 2012 05:56:33 -0600 A wave of anti-government protests in Russia in late 2011 has rocked its political establishment. United in anger at President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to cede his post to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, as well as at evidence of electoral fraud in recent legislative elections, up to 100,000 Russians gathered on 24 December to take part in some of the country's largest protests since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet those who expect Russia to follow the path of Arab revolutions are likely to be disappointed. The protests may herald a period of greater instability, but they are... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/russias_protests_not_a_revolution_but_an_awakening_99871.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/russias_protests_not_a_revolution_but_an_awakening_99871.html International Institute for Strategic Studies International Institute for Strategic Studies 2012/02 02/01/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 01 Feb 2012 08:27:53 -0600 China's impact on the U.S. economy and its rising global power gives China a significant role in the Republican primaries. Mitt Romney, the embattled frontrunner for the nomination, articulates a China policy focused primarily on economic issues to attack President Obama's handling of the American economy. On the few occasions that he discusses China from a security standpoint, Romney emphasizes the need for U.S. military predominance to deal with a potentially threatening China with opaque intentions. In general, however, Romney's China policy is narrowly expressed, leaving... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/mitt_romneys_china_policy_99874.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/mitt_romneys_china_policy_99874.html Michael Swaine & Oliver Palmer Michael Swaine & Oliver Palmer 2012/02 02/01/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 01 Feb 2012 06:35:12 -0600 Last time the UN Security Council (UNSC) demanded the attention of major capitals, world media and Arab Spring watchers on the scale witnessed Tuesday was nearly 11 months ago, when the 15-nation body expedited a crippling round of sanctions against Muammar Gaddafi's Libya, followed shortly thereafter by the authorization of military intervention in the North African country. This week, another Arab Spring uprising that has morphed into a bloody conflict was the focus of debate, but neither sanctions nor military intervention were on the table. Indeed, Council members remain split over... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/showdown_at_the_security_council_over_syria_resolution_99872.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/showdown_at_the_security_council_over_syria_resolution_99872.html Casey L. Coombs Casey L. Coombs 2012/02 02/01/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 01 Feb 2012 04:46:04 -0600 United NationsNew York City Thank you very much, Mr. President, and let me begin by thanking Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim and Secretary General el Araby for their thorough briefing. The Arab League has demonstrated important leadership in this crisis. And for many months, the people of the region and the world have watched in horror as the Assad regime executed a campaign of violence against its own citizens. Civilians gunned down in the streets, women and children tortured and killed. No one is safe, not even officials of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent. According to UN estimates, more... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/hillary_clinton_speech_on__syria.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/02/01/hillary_clinton_speech_on__syria.html Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton 2012/02 02/01/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:21:22 -0600 In 1952 Egypt had a coup, which turned into a permanent revolution. Now Egypt has had a revolution that has turned into a coup. So goes a quip doing the rounds in Cairo. It is a line that sits nicely with the refrain heard in the West about Egypt a year after millions of protesters drove Hosni Mubarak from his pharonic throne of power. With the Egyptian military in charge, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, the emergence of the once-hidden Salafists and the fragmentation of the broad-based liberal-minded alliance that pushed the Egyptian strongman from power, there is plenty of sand if not... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/egypts_popular_putsch_99870.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/egypts_popular_putsch_99870.html Daniel Korski Daniel Korski 2012/01 01/31/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:12:00 -0600 The German government proposed last week that a European commissioner be appointed to supplant the Greek government. While phrasing the German proposal this way might seem extreme, it is not unreasonable. Under the German proposal, this commissioner would hold power over the Greek national budget and taxation. Since the European Central Bank already controls the Greek currency, the euro, this would effectively transfer control of the Greek government to the European Union, since whoever controls a country's government expenditures, tax rates and monetary policy effectively controls that... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/germanys_role_in_the_european_debt_crisis_99869.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/germanys_role_in_the_european_debt_crisis_99869.html George Friedman George Friedman 2012/01 01/31/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 06:56:38 -0600 On March 4, the people of Russia will be going to the polls to elect a president of the country. Extensive discussions are currently underway across society. I consider it necessary to state my position on a number of issues which seem to be important in this broader debate: the risks and challenges Russia will, inevitably, encounter. The position we must take in global politics and the world economy. Will we follow the course of events or take a role in setting the rules of the game? What resources will help us to strengthen our positions and, I stress, ensure stable development? The kind of... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/russia_muscles_up_putin_speech_99867.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/russia_muscles_up_putin_speech_99867.html Vladimir Putin Vladimir Putin 2012/01 01/31/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 06:36:49 -0600 As a country importing 11 percent of its oil from Iran, the latest American and European move to isolate Iran has put China in a quandary. Should it join the West with which it has close economic ties, or ignore the call for sanctions on Iran, not backed by the United Nations, to maintain its energy security? With the recent visit of Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to three oil-rich Gulf monarchies, Beijing's deft diplomacy has sidestepped the issue. Wen highlighted main principles of Beijing's foreign policy: non-interference in other countries' affairs; prioritizing energy... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/china_courts_the_middle_east_99868.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/china_courts_the_middle_east_99868.html Dilip Hiro Dilip Hiro 2012/01 01/31/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 06:22:39 -0600 The US is contemplating a change in strategy, away from our current defense posture in Europe. Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta released a defense strategic guidance, "to articulate priorities for a 21st century defense that sustains US global leadership," as the Pentagon chief put it. Although few commentators noticed, the guidance alludes to a subtle policy shift away from US security and interests in Europe. Personally, as a US Air Force colonel and commander of the Royal Air Force Station Mildenhall, England from 2009-2011, I find these pronouncements... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/now_not_the_time_to_retreat_from_europe_99866.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/31/now_not_the_time_to_retreat_from_europe_99866.html Chad Manske Chad Manske 2012/01 01/31/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 06:21:27 -0600 2012 commenced with an escalation of rhetoric between the United States and Iran. More than ever, the drumbeat for a military strike on Iran was heard, aimed at disrupting its military nuclear program. Iran responded by warning of the consequences of any such attack. Top U.S. officials made their resolve clear, suggesting that a military strike was a viable option for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. President Barack Obama underscored that it would be unacceptable for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, pledging to 'keep up the pressure' and taking no option 'off the table.'... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/the_west_can_delay_irans_nuclearization_without_launching_a_hazardous_war_99865.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/the_west_can_delay_irans_nuclearization_without_launching_a_hazardous_war_99865.html David Menashri David Menashri 2012/01 01/30/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:21:50 -0600 My passion for protecting and preserving freedom is a gift that comes to me from my grandfather, an immigrant who brought my father to this country and whose well-weathered hands mined coal in Southwestern Pennsylvania until he was 72. He left the totalitarian regime of Mussolini's Italy to bring his family to freedom. He worked hard and committed himself to creating a better life for his children and grandchildren. He taught me how to treasure the gift of freedom, to have faith in God's grace, to achieve what American liberty offers to those who work hard and to love and support a... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/santorum_op-ed_cuba_iran_freedom_99863.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/santorum_op-ed_cuba_iran_freedom_99863.html Rick Santorum Rick Santorum 2012/01 01/30/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 30 Jan 2012 07:40:37 -0600 Everyone knows that if you ask three Israelis what they think, you'll get 10 opinions. Yet on a recent trip to Israel, I heard everyone from government officials to academics and cab drivers deliver the same refrain: "What Arab Spring? This is the Arab Winter." We appear to be witnessing the analytical equivalent of a lunar eclipse in Israel: a rare moment of groupthink. Of course, Israelis historically have reason to worry about the manifold threats in their neighborhood. And now, with spreading instability resulting from a contagion of protests, the hydra of anti-Israel... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/arab_spring_may_benefit_israel_99864.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/arab_spring_may_benefit_israel_99864.html Jonathan Schanzer Jonathan Schanzer 2012/01 01/30/2012/00/00/00 Sun, 29 Jan 2012 21:57:34 -0600 Whoever has endured the yoke of a long and cruel dictatorship knows that one of the most comforting feelings one may experience under those circumstances is to be able to count on the solidarity of people and institutions from the outside world. That solidarity gives strength to those who struggle from within. And, all too naturally, when those like-minded voices get missing or run low, when the crimes of the dictatorship do no arouse international indignation, when those who lead countries living in democracy turn a blind eye, it is anger which, most understandably, springs from the hearts... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/cuba_latin_america_great_shame.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/30/cuba_latin_america_great_shame.html Fabio Rafael Fiallo Fabio Rafael Fiallo 2012/01 01/30/2012/00/00/00 Sun, 29 Jan 2012 21:47:48 -0600 European and American perfidy in dealing with Iran's nuclear weapons program apparently has no end. This week we were subject to banner headlines announcing that the EU has decided to place an oil embargo on Iran. It was only when we got past the bombast that we discovered that the embargo is only set to come into force on July 1. Following its European colleagues, the Obama administration announced it is also ratcheting up its sanctions against Iran... in two months. Sometime in late March, the US will begin sanctioning Iran's third largest bank. At the same time as the Europeans... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/28/the_zionist_imperative_99861.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/28/the_zionist_imperative_99861.html Caroline Glick Caroline Glick 2012/01 01/28/2012/00/00/00 Sat, 28 Jan 2012 06:07:23 -0600 The primary purpose of journalism is to gather facts hitherto unknown to the general public and report them accurately and succinctly. There is no place in this sometimes dangerous if not psychologically painful profession for wishful thinking. Unfortunately, however, correspondents and columnists sometimes violate its unwritten, but theoretically binding rules. That is how the misnomer, "Arab Spring," was coined. Its authors or proponents, many of whom covered last year's dramatic developments in North Africa and the Fertile Crescent that began with a fruit and vegetable... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/27/arab_spring_a_media_concoction_99859.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/27/arab_spring_a_media_concoction_99859.html Jay Bushinsky Jay Bushinsky 2012/01 01/27/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 27 Jan 2012 06:51:33 -0600 Mitt Romney, one of the leading Republican U.S. Presidential candidates, has informed his countrymen over the past few weeks that U.S. President Barack Obama is working to turn the United States into Europe. This, one might think, is good news. Presumably it suggests that a unified "West" is closer to becoming a reality. The president, someone in Washington D.C., is working for ever greater convergence in the world's greatest alliance. After decades of unabashed Americanization of Europe, it seems, the tables are turning. In due time, the need for transatlantic learning and... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/26/eurobaloney_on_2012_campaign_trail_99858.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/26/eurobaloney_on_2012_campaign_trail_99858.html Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff 2012/01 01/26/2012/00/00/00 Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:34:27 -0600 TOKYO – The latest round of economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran, intended to put pressure on the regime in Tehran, may be putting just as much pressure on America's key Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, both of whom are dependent on the Middle East for the vast bulk of their petroleum imports. In the past, under pressure from Washington, Tokyo and Seoul have reluctantly fallen in line and cut back on doing business with Iran. Just a little more than a year ago, Japan ended its last major investment in Iran. Now, Washington is back with more demands,... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/26/maybe_japan_should_say_no_to_iran_sanctions.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/26/maybe_japan_should_say_no_to_iran_sanctions.html Todd Crowell Todd Crowell 2012/01 01/26/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:58:52 -0600 A few years ago, my wife and I were walking along the bank of the Danube River in Budapest. Across the river is an absolutely breathtaking view of the Hungarian Parliament, an enormous gothic structure that dominates the waterfront. We saw a young woman sitting by herself near the bank, and we asked her to take a picture of us. I will never forget her answer. She said, “No.” Despite traveling to cities all across America and Europe, that has never happened to us anywhere. Ever. It wasn’t the only bad experience we had in Budapest. While eating in a restaurant... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/25/bedlam_brewing_in_budapest_99856.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/25/bedlam_brewing_in_budapest_99856.html Alex Berezow Alex Berezow 2012/01 01/25/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 09:26:59 -0600 BERLIN, Germany - Unemployment is rising in most European Union countries, as the effects of crippling sovereign debt crisis, and the austerity measures prescribed to tackle it, take their toll. Yet the bloc's biggest and richest member has seemed almost immune to the effects of the crisis, particularly when it comes to its labor market. While dole queues lengthen in Spain, France and Greece, in Germany they are rapidly dwindling. In fact Germany has seen the number out of work decrease to its lowest level since 1991. It's a remarkable turnaround. While many other countries were... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/25/germany_jobs_miracle_99857.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/25/germany_jobs_miracle_99857.html Siobhan Dowling Siobhan Dowling 2012/01 01/25/2012/00/00/00 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 06:23:07 -0600 Last week, I wrote on the strategic challenge Iran faces in its bid to shape a sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to Beirut on the eastern Mediterranean coast. I also pointed out the limited options available to the United States and other Western powers to counter Iran. One was increased efforts to block Iranian influence in Syria. The other was to consider a strategy of negotiation with Iran. In the past few days, we have seen hints of both. Rebel Gains in Syria The city of Zabadani in southwestern Syria reportedly has fallen into the hands of anti-regime forces. Though... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/24/considering_a_us-iranian_deal_99854.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/24/considering_a_us-iranian_deal_99854.html George Friedman George Friedman 2012/01 01/24/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 24 Jan 2012 06:34:55 -0600 For 10 months, the world has watched in horror as Bashar al Assad's regime carries out regular massacres against unarmed civilians across Syria in a bid to quell the unrest gripping the country. No doubt inspired by the successes of their Arab brethren elsewhere, thousands of Syrians have staged protests asking that their rights and dignity be respected. Although the Syrian government has vacillated between intensifying its crackdown and feigning interest in meeting some demands of its people, it's clear that Assad is not likely to follow the example of Egypt's Mubarak or... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/24/world_has_no_appetite_for_syria_intervention_99853.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/24/world_has_no_appetite_for_syria_intervention_99853.html Fahad Nazer Fahad Nazer 2012/01 01/24/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 24 Jan 2012 06:18:00 -0600 As Asia's rising powers seek to sustain growth and ensure stability, energy security has moved to the forefront of Asian geopolitics. The recent visit by China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar was as much about ensuring energy security for China as it was about China playing a role in maintaining political stability in the Middle East. The visit came against the backdrop of the growing threat of United States-led oil-export sanctions against Iran and China's need to secure alternative sources of oil and gas. But its unstated... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/23/asias_quest_for_energy_security_99852.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/23/asias_quest_for_energy_security_99852.html Sanjaya Baru Sanjaya Baru 2012/01 01/23/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 23 Jan 2012 07:56:15 -0600 Anti-Semitism may not yet be a litmus test for social acceptability in the US, but it has certainly become acceptable. Proof of this dismal state of affairs came this week with the publication of a supportive profile of University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer in The Atlantic monthly written by the magazine's in-house foreign policy guru Robert Kaplan. Mearsheimer is the author, together with Harvard's Kennedy School of Government's Prof. Stephen Walt, of the infamous 2007 book The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. Since the book's publication, Mearsheimer has... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/20/the_mainstreaming_of_anti-semitism_99851.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/20/the_mainstreaming_of_anti-semitism_99851.html Caroline Glick Caroline Glick 2012/01 01/20/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 20 Jan 2012 06:02:59 -0600 Japanese are disappearing in slow motion and so far, there is no rescue plan. Every January, those turning 20 over the next twelve months celebrate their Coming-of-Age Day at shrines across the nation. Yet each year there are fewer of them. This year, only 1.2 million youth will turn 20, half as many as in 1970. On U.N. calculations, the 2010 population of 127 million will shrink by a fifth, to 101.6 million in 2050. Moreover, the decline speeds up over time, with the population dropping by 6.65% between 2015 and 2030, but plummeting a whopping 13.4% from 2030 to 2050-far and away the worst... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/19/japans_coming_demographic_crisis_99850.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/19/japans_coming_demographic_crisis_99850.html Michael Auslin Michael Auslin 2012/01 01/19/2012/00/00/00 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:37:40 -0600 Victory in war means accomplishing one's political objectives, and some Iranian leaders seem to believe they could advance four of their main goals through armed conflict with the United States: namely, resisting "global arrogance," creating disorder in the oil markets, justifying nuclear breakout, and rallying the nation. If Iran were to make significant progress toward these objectives via hostilities against American forces, some in Tehran might conclude that they had won. More likely, however, the optimistic expectations of these overly confident, risktaking Iranian... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/19/how_iran_views_confronting_the_united_states_99849.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/19/how_iran_views_confronting_the_united_states_99849.html Patrick Clawson Patrick Clawson 2012/01 01/19/2012/00/00/00 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 08:05:18 -0600 Political realities facing the leaders of the United States and Iran mean that military confrontation between the two states is a distinct possibility. In late December, the Iranian armed forces conducted a number of war games - which included the live firing of missiles - in the Straits of Hormuz and adjacent waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. When the aircraft carrier USS John Stennis sailed for a routine repositioning from the Gulf to the North Arabian Sea, Iran told the United States not to return it to the Gulf region. The commander of Iran's army, General Ataollah... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/19/a_slippery_slope_to_war_with_iran_99848.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/19/a_slippery_slope_to_war_with_iran_99848.html Geoffrey Kemp Geoffrey Kemp 2012/01 01/19/2012/00/00/00 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 04:32:58 -0600 The United States reportedly sent a letter to Iran via multiple intermediaries last week warning Tehran that any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz constituted a red line for Washington. The same week, a chemist associated with Iran's nuclear program was killed in Tehran. In Ankara, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani met with Turkish officials and has been floating hints of flexibility in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. This week, a routine rotation of U.S. aircraft carriers is taking place in the Middle East, with the potential for three carrier strike groups... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/17/iran_the_us_and_the_strait_of_hormuz_crisis_99847.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/17/iran_the_us_and_the_strait_of_hormuz_crisis_99847.html George Friedman George Friedman 2012/01 01/17/2012/00/00/00 Tue, 17 Jan 2012 07:01:11 -0600 For the past two decades China has been a poster child of successful globalization, integrating with the world and in the process lifting millions of citizens out of poverty. But China's integration into the world economy and global trends drive and constrain Beijing's ability to manage growing social, economic and political challenges. Global trends affect all nations, but China may be uniquely vulnerable to developments beyond its borders and beyond its control. Chinese leaders recognize the diversity and complexity of the challenges they face but appear determined to confront... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/the_china_challenge_99846.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/the_china_challenge_99846.html Thomas Fingar Thomas Fingar 2012/01 01/16/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 11:29:51 -0600 At the start of what will be a year of pre-ordained political change in China, the traditional calendar will next month usher in another year of the dragon. According to the traditional Chinese zodiac, dragon years come around every 12 years. A son born in a dragon year can be a blessing "may the son become a dragon" (that is, a success) is an ancient benediction because this birth year is said to presage a personality featuring enterprise, intelligence and inhibition. China's political leaders, however, know all too well that dragon years 1989 most famously are fraught with... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/young_dragons_rising_in_china_99845.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/young_dragons_rising_in_china_99845.html Geremie Barme Geremie Barme 2012/01 01/16/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 10:22:16 -0600 In advance of President Obama's State of the Union address next week, RCP is rolling out daily "state of" reports to better frame the issues Obama will likely address. As the United States heads into a crucial presidential election in November, it must keep a wary eye beyond its borders. Will there be a conflagration - of either an economic or military kind - that might consume the world? China, the United States’ chief rival as a superpower in the coming decades, is also facing a potential leadership change this year. Though the U.S. has pulled out of Iraq, embers... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/a_look_at_our_world_in_2012_99843.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/a_look_at_our_world_in_2012_99843.html Samuel Chi, Kevin Sullivan & Gregory Scoblete Samuel Chi, Kevin Sullivan & Gregory Scoblete 2012/01 01/16/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 09:42:16 -0600 In August 2010, a newly elected Slovak government refused to contribute to the first Greek bail-out. A year later, the rising popularity of the anti-euro True Finns pushed the Finnish government to demand that Greece should put up collateral in return for new loans. Which eurozone country will be next in line to hold up a bail-out package or veto new rules? Austria could be a good candidate. Each time a smallish EU country balks at euro rescue efforts, analysts and policy-makers scramble to figure out its political dynamics and wonder why they had missed the brewing storm. With populism on... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/is_austria_the_new_finland_99844.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/16/is_austria_the_new_finland_99844.html Katinka Barysch Katinka Barysch 2012/01 01/16/2012/00/00/00 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:06:02 -0600 Call it the piety of policy-makers - the solemn injunction that information should inform sound policy. This week offers a lesson where information is the enemy, and policy is predicated on a willful need not-to-know. The policy in question: Interior Secretary Ken Salazar's decision to impose a 20 year ban on mining in a million-acre buffer area around Grand Canyon National Park - itself, at 1.2 million acres, the 4th largest national park in the lower 48 states. The ostensible reason: concerns that proposed uranium mining could jeopardize water quality. But little in the public record... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/13/nuclear_disarmament_in_the_resource_wars_99838.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/13/nuclear_disarmament_in_the_resource_wars_99838.html Daniel McGroarty Daniel McGroarty 2012/01 01/13/2012/00/00/00 Thu, 12 Jan 2012 18:26:08 -0600 PORT-AU-PRINCE - For all the talk about a Haitian people who have grown impatient with the slow pace of a largely foreign-led reconstruction effort, what Haitians are clamoring for most is accountability from their own government for promises that remain unfulfilled two years after the earthquake. Many Haitians thought they had found the man who could help the country break out of a cycle of failure and finger-pointing, former pop star Michel Martelly, when he was a candidate vying for the presidency early last year. After Haiti's electoral council announced that Martelly had not made it... http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/13/haiti_politics_of_blame_99841.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/13/haiti_politics_of_blame_99841.html Jacob Kushner Jacob Kushner 2012/01 01/13/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 13 Jan 2012 06:49:55 -0600 Click on the picture for a full-sized image. Source: Visual.ly http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/13/humanity_in_big_numbers_99842.html http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2012/01/13/humanity_in_big_numbers_99842.html RealClearWorld RealClearWorld 2012/01 01/13/2012/00/00/00 Fri, 13 Jan 2012 09:10:35 -0600