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May 06, 2010British Elections Live Blog
8:00 AM BST - Final update until the morning stateside: A hung parliament is just about assured. With only about 50 seats left to be decided, the Tories will have to claim close to 40 of them to reach the magic number of 326.
Not going to happen. So it's on. Forget the earlier comparisons to Canada and Israel. This has the potential of disintegrating into a mess like the 2000 U.S. presidential election. The Supreme Court justices made the call 10 years ago to save the republic, the queen will have to do the same now to save the empire, er, the kingdom. -Sam
7:10 AM BST - We're hurtling toward the finish. The Tories can still mathematically win a majority, but it's becoming more unlikely by the minute. Meanwhile, the jockeying for 10 Downing Street has begun in earnest.
From David Cameron:
What will guide me in the hours ahead, and perhaps longer than the hours ahead, will be the national interest – to do what is right for our country, to make sure we have that government, have that stability, take the right decisions. We live in difficult times but this is a great country and we will come through them and be stronger. At all times what I will do is put the national interest first to make sure we have good, strong, stable government for our country.
From Gordon Brown:
The outcome of this country's vote is not yet known. But my duty to the country, coming out of this election, is to play my part in Britain having a strong, stable and principled government, able to lead Britain into sustained economic recovery and able to implement our commitments to far-reaching reform to our political system - upon which there is a growing consensus in our country.
-Sam
5:30 AM BST - Almost daybreak in London, and the cliffhanger continues. The next question: WWQD?
That would be Queen Elizabeth II, the sovereign of the United Kingdom. If none of the parties obtained a majority in Thursday's vote, the queen can invite whomever first to form the new government at her discretion. And she has broad discretion because Britain has no single written, binding constitution. Like baseball, it's governed by a set of unwritten rules and conventions more than anything else.
For now, Gordon Brown remains Prime Minister until/unless he goes to Buckingham Palace to resign. And so far he has been talking up about continuing on at 10 Downing Street. This election is reminiscent of both the 2008 Canadian federal election and last year's election in Israel, in either case no party came close to winning outright majority. -Sam
4:30 AM BST - All indications suggest that the Conservatives have gained enough seats to win a strong plurality, but still fall short of outright majority. The vote counting will go on through the night, though in some instances they will resume Friday morning.
The Tories have already laid the claim as the party that should form the next government, though Labour's Gordon Brown and his surrogates have not given up the idea of hanging on by forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Cameron may be very close to being able to form a minority government, with the support of Northern Ireland's Unionists, who are expected to send 8 or 9 MPs to the next Parliament. Most projections now put the final Tories total somewhere between 305-310 seats, though an official count probably will not emerge until at least midday British Time on Friday. -Sam
1:54 AM BST - Cleggmania may not have boosted the Lib Dem wave, but turnout has apparently been so heavy that some polling stations were caught by surprise and ran out of ballot paper or turned voters away. - Greg
1:38 AM BST - Gordon Brown wins his seat and vows: "I will not let you down." - Greg
1:21 AM BST - The BBC is saying that Gordon Brown is sending out feelers about forming a coalition government with the Lib Dems if the Conservatives can't seal the majority. -Greg
1:02 AM BST - Benedict Brogan, calling it for Cameron, suggests his first move as PM will be national security-oriented:
The first major announcement, I gather, would be about national security. Mr Cameron gave us a hint on Sunday when he was asked by Andrew Marr about his first priorites in office and he cited Afghanistan and the need for a war cabinet. Mr Cameron’s aim is to announce who will be his National Security Adviser. It will be a senior official from the Foreign Office (Sherard Cowper Coles, currently the special representative to Afghanistan, is one of the names doing the rounds) who will oversee the national security council. The Conservative leader reckons with some justification that his first thoughts and actions should be about defence. He wants to deliver a message of calm purpose on the issue that has been in the background for this campaign, specifically about how we run the war tnat has now lasted longer than any since that tussle with Boney.
Given the state of international markets, he may (if he wins!) want to rethink that. - Greg
12:35 AM BST - Just in a couple of minutes ago. The BBC/Sky/ITV exit polls have the Tories at 305, Labour at 255 and Lib Dems at 61.
Significant here, besides the Tories are 21 short of a majority, it also leaves a possible Labour-Lib Dem coalition short of a majority by 10 seats. In fact, as Greg already pointed out, despite Cleggmania, the Lib Dems would lose net one seat from the last parliament. -Sam
12:15 AM BST - Based on seat projections from Trendlines and other outlets, it appears that the Tories would come close, but just shy, of reaching the 326-seat majority.
Trendline's most recent projections have the Tories winning 307 seats, 19 short of an outright majority. In 2008, RCW tracked the Canadian federal elections using Trendlines as part of the seat projections and it came within 8.3 percent of predicting the actual outcome for each of the major parties.
At 8.3 percent margin of error, the Tories would have a top end result of 332 seats, just enough for a majority. -Sam
12:00 AM BST - Looking at the exit polls, the Lib Dems may actually win fewer seats than in 2005. So despite Cleggmania, the Lib Dems may in fact retreat a bit in 2010. -Greg
MAY 6
11:26 PM BST - Listening to the BBC, the Conservatives actually need to get to "around" 310 seats to form a government due to the vagaries of British democracy. For Labour, "a bad night already."
Results are also in Houghton and Sunderland South. Labour took both, but the swing of Labour votes to the Conservatives is apparently massive. The swing in Sunderland was 11 percent, more than double what Thatcher scored, and the size of the swing could mean that the exit polls were considerably underestimating the size of the Conservative win, according to the BBC. "The largest swing since 1945," sayeth the Beeb. - Greg
10:43 PM BST - Based on exit polling, the Guardian has the Conservatives winning 307 seats, Labour 255 and Lib-Dems snatching 59. At 307, Cameron would be shy of the 326 seat majority he needs to form a government. - Greg
8:30 PM BST - Only an hour and a half left before all the polling stations are closed. The Telegraph has an interactive map that will be updated whenever a seat is declared. But if you want to do the number crunching yourself for all 650 seats, go right ahead. -Sam
6:39 PM BST - Andrew Sullivan reflects on the Conservative Party re-branding undertaken by David Cameron:
Thatcher campaigned on smaller government, lower taxes and social conservatism. But the vibrant economy that followed did more to undermine traditional England than anything Labour could have done. Small towns became dependent on nationally branded super-stores, migrants and immigrants poured in, gays became mainstream, the environment became a consensus national issue, cosmopolitanism sank deep into even the most traditional of places. Re-branding was essential if the Tories were going to survive at all in the Britain they had themselves created.
-Greg
5:55 PM BST - Rosemary Hollis tackles the implications of the UK election on the country's Mideast policy:
inority rule or a coalition in Britain is greeted in Israel with apprehension on the grounds that both would spell uncertainty and indecisiveness. The biggest fear of some in Israel appears to be the appointment of Clegg as the next British foreign secretary.However, Clegg could well opt for another slot in a coalition government, such as deputy prime minister. The real issue will be whether a weak government would want to take a strong stance on the question of Iran -- especially if Iranian intransigence on the nuclear issue presages a slide toward military action.
Meanwhile, a Conservative-led government, with Euro-skeptic William Hague as foreign secretary, will first have to divine a way forward on British relations with the European Union and the United States. The decision of the Conservatives to leave the center-right bloc in the European parliament in favor of an alignment with right-wing groups considered populist and even anti-Semitic in more mainstream EU circles portends an uncomfortable relationship with the rest of Europe.
The key question therefore is what role the Lib Dems could play in tempering the foreign-policy leanings of a Conservative or Labour leadership in a minority or coalition government. They could rescue a Tory leadership from isolation in Europe. Yet they will probably not be able to make changes to British ties to the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Ultimately she doesn't expect much change, which sounds about right to me. - Greg
2:38 PM BST - Britain's best prime ministers: the Times picks the top 50. - Greg
2:32 PM BST - Why do the British vote? The polling firm YouGov put that question to UK voters. A sense of duty topped the list. - Greg
2:05 PM BST - Nile Gardiner looks to the future:
President Obama’s first 16 months in office provide an important lesson for the next British Prime Minister in how not to run the country. The hallmarks of the Obama administration have been the relentless rise of big government, excessive levels of public spending and borrowing, little or no job creation, the weakening of America’s defences, the appeasement of America’s enemies, and the decline of US global power. Unsurprisingly, Barack Obama’s approval ratings are at historically low levels, and there is widespread public concern over the size of the deficit and the mounting public debt, as well as mounting unease over his administration’s handling of the war on terror and the Iranian nuclear threat.David Cameron should instead pursue a conservative agenda which emphasises limited government, low taxation, cuts in public expenditure, and an enterprise economy that creates jobs rather than stifles businesses. He should also eschew Obama’s weak-kneed approach to national security issues, and make the war against Islamist terrorism, at home and abroad, a top priority. In contrast to President Obama, instead of apologising for his country when traveling abroad, Cameron should project pride in Britain’s distinguished history and its great role in advancing freedom, liberty and prosperity across the globe.
There's a whole lot of truthy conjecture to unpack here, but I think it perfectly highlights just how similar David Cameron's situation is to Obama's. Both have (likely, in Cameron's case) inherited an increasingly powerful executive office, tasked with stewarding over a proud and powerful country, while the rest of the world becomes more multi-polar - and less inclined to follow dictates from Washington and London.
Take Gardiner's commentary: In just two paragraphs, he suggests that PM David Cameron must cut taxes, but not borrow. But he also mustn't engage enemies, and instead must prosecute an indefinite war abroad against Islamists. Gardiner goes on to suggest that "Barack Obama’s leadership of the United States is leading his country on a path of decline as a world power. David Cameron must learn from Obama’s mistakes, and take Britain down a completely different path."
The path Gardiner suggests - tax cuts coupled with spending; fiscal rhetoric coupled with indefinite war; rejection of multilateral cooperation; imperial rhetoric in oblivious defiance of global realities; etc. - may be somewhat different from Obama's, but it's one Americans are certainly familiar with nonetheless. How'd that work out? - Kevin
12:52 PM BST - British MP Nigel Farage, last seen delivering the mother of all tongue lashings to EU President Herman Rumpoy, was injured in a small crash. It doesn't appear to be life-threatening. - Greg
12:42 PM BST - So how accurate are British opinion polls? The Guardian's Data Blog takes a look and finds.... inconsistency. - Greg
7:30 AM BST - Voting began all cross the United Kingdom. Based on the final poll results, the Conservatives are assured of winning a plurality of votes. The question, then, is, has David Cameron done enough in the final days to secure a majority for his party, out of power since 1997.
The final RCP Average puts the Tories' advantage at 8.6. All of the final polls indicated a lead of between 7 to 9 points for the Tories. Most seat projections now have the Tories 20-30 seats short of the 326 needed for an outright majority. -Sam
MAY 5
5:10 PM BST - The BBC has a nice selection of photos from the campaign. -Greg
5:02 PM BST - The Telegraph offers a handy time line of campaign landmarks and lamentable moments. - Kevin
3:24 PM BST - Harry Mount reports that one of the effects of the Clegg surge was to dampen the class war overtones that had initially marked the campaign:
Any remnants of the class war disappeared in the aftermath of the Clegg triumph. One Oxbridge-educated, public schoolboy can be attacked on class grounds. If Gordon Brown had attacked both Clegg and Cameron for those reasons, he would have looked ludicrous: “They’re all ganging up on me” would have been the rather pathetic impression.Funnily enough, though, having two identikit, privately-educated, Oxbridge graduates in their early 40s running for office, shows quite how much opportunities for state-educated, red-brick graduates have retreated. That’s a class issue to a certain extent. But, more directly, it’s a result of the collapse of state education standards, and the decrease in the number of grammar schools – something both the Tories and Labour are responsible for.
- Greg
2:34 PM BST - Time to make the sausage:
Northern Ireland MPs have indicated that they will formally back the Conservative leader if he protects the region from this year’s public spending cuts. The move would cost up to £200 million.The deal, which Mr Cameron will be under pressure to accept, would give his party another nine or 10 parliamentary seats.
- Greg
1:50 PM BST - The European Commission has some good news for the next resident of Number 10 Downing Street:
Latest forecasts show Britain's debt at 88% of GDP in 2011/12, well above the eurozone permitted maximum of 60%.Britain's annual deficit is also running at more than four times the eurozone permitted ceiling of 3% of GDP.
Meanwhile, the Greeks don't seem to be very keen on trimming back their budget. - Greg
1:37 PM BST - Cameron gets the critical Simon Cowell endorsement. - Greg
1:24 PM BST - "Grumbling ineptitude and obvious exhaustion." That's how Labour MP Austin Mitchell describes his party's boss. The knives are out. [Hat tip: The Times] - Greg
11:53 AM BST - With the prospects of a hung parliament roiling the political landscape, the idea of "tactical voting" has taken on greater currency. Two members of Gordon Brown's cabinet have actually come out in favor of the idea to deny David Cameron the win. Tony Blair, speaking to the Guardian, has none of it. - Greg
8:00 AM BST - On Thursday, the Queen's subjects hit the polls to elect a new government, most likely ending 13 years of Labour rule.
The Conservatives are poised to win a plurality of votes, though 24 hours before the election, it's unclear if they will win enough seats to gain a majority. By most counts, the Tories are anywhere between 10 to 50 short of the 326 seats needed to avoid a hung parliament. -Sam
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