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June 16, 2010Somalia 2035
It’s tempting to defend President Obama’s persistence in foreign policy fiascos by saying that he inherited them from George Bush and can’t wind them down overnight. But in some ways Obama is out-Bushing Bush. He’s radically increased the use of drone strikes and is expanding “covert” military operations that can wind up backfiring much the way America’s support for the Ethiopian intervention in Somalia backfired. In some of these cases he is taking radical Muslims with essentially local grievances and turning them into America’s enemies.And he’s failing to heed the most fundamental lesson of Somalia and for that matter Afghanistan and Iraq: No matter how bad things are, trying to make them better can always make them worse. - Robert Wright
Wright is reacting to the New York Times' story two days ago on the use of child soldiers by America's ally in Somalia.
You don't need to be especially clairvoyant to guess that this is going to end badly for the U.S. An al Qaeda cell or two in Somalia is not ideal, but implicating ourselves in the country's internecine warfare is a recipe for long-term disaster. You would think, given the Obama administration's present troubles in Afghanistan, that they would be far more sensitive to the argument that short-term tactical interventions can lead to significant long-term problems.
What is the more likely scenario: that Washington is going to be able to sufficiently arm and equip its favored faction in Somalia to deal a decisive blow to al Qaeda and stabilize the country or that we'll eventually lose interest or become frustrated with the lack of progress and try to extricate ourselves? And what happens when these child soldiers grow up (if they grow up)? What will they think of the U.S.?
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