Why the U.S. should declare Mission Accomplished in Libya.
Robert Farley has some interesting thoughts on the Libyan war:
The course of the war vindicates the â??Afghan Modelâ? as a military technique, if not as a political strategy. To review, the Afghan Model is based on the idea that airpower and special forces can help indigenous troops can win wars against numerically and organizationally stronger opponents. Special forces take on training, command, and liason roles, airpower conducts close air support, attrition, and interdiction missions, and the indigenous troops force the enemy to defend strongpoints from fixed locations. This model worked very well in the first several months of the Afghanistan war, but it worked rather less well at the start of the Libyan Civil War. Although airstrikes were able to freeze Gaddafi loyalist forces, rebel offensives initially failed.With what looks like a rebel victory in the offing, the specifically military aspect of the Afghan Model seems to have been vindicated, if in slow motion. However, the Afghan Model is as much a political as a military concept. Politically, the AM is supposed to minimize domestic opposition in the intervening country, minimize nationalist reaction in the target country, and minimize international upheaval. In Libya, the grade is mixed on all three. Cameron, Sarkozy, and Obama probably received more flak than they had expected, mostly because the war stretched so long. The war likely stretched so long at least in part because of nationalist reaction within Libya. The international community remained relatively quiet, although the violence in Syria and the ongoing collapse of the global economy may have played some part.
The other political aspect of the Afghan Model involves post-conflict stability. If Libya crumbles back into civil war in the wake of Gaddafiâ??s fall, it wonâ??t reflect well on a strategic concept that promises large returns at minimal risk.
One thing the U.S. should understand by now is that a military victory does not necessarily beget a political one. The question is - what will NATO and the U.S. be satisfied with - a military victory that sees Gaddafi run out of town, or up a pole, (a victory which it appears they have secured) or a political victory in Libya?
Rather curiously, many of the people who opposed intervening in Libya's civil war are now warning against a "mission accomplished" moment. I think that's a mistake. If the U.S. does not want to get deeply entangled in what could be a very problematic and violent aftermath in Libya, this is precisely the time to declare mission accomplished. Thanks to the "Afghan Model," the U.S. and NATO have very little exposure on the ground - unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, they will not have to face the prospect of an ignominious withdrawal under fire. In other words, for those who objected to American intervention in Libya's civil war, the downfall of Gaddafi is a perfect excuse to extricate ourselves before it turns into a problem that the West cannot solve.
(AP Photo)
