Will the economic crisis provoke world war III?
I still cannot bring myself to believe that we are heading back to the 1930s. First, the very knowledge of what went wrong 80 years ago may help politicians to avoid the same mistakes this time around. Chinaâ??s continued emphasis on the need for a "peaceful rise" owes something to a knowledge of the terrible errors of Imperial Japan.Second, there is a plausible argument that the 66 years of peace between the major powers and developed nations since 1945 reflects the progress of civilisation, rather than a lucky cycle in world history.
Finally, the developed world is starting from a much higher level of affluence than it did in the 1930s. In an economic crash, people might still lose their savings, their jobs and their homes â?? but they are less likely to be reduced to utter destitution. - Gideon Rachman
I don't know about you, but losing my job, home and savings would be a fairly devastating experience. In fact, I suspect that were this unfortunate outcome to befall even more Americans and Europeans than it has already, it would indeed be very radicalizing, particularly when contrasted with the solicitousness shown large financial institutions. We see the contours of this already in the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements but I think Rachman is being a bit too complacent here about the potential for more volatile social upheaval and political reaction if things do take a turn for the worse.
Does this mean World War III? If I had to bet my (meager) savings, I'd wager no, if only because nuclear weapons have foreclosed that option for many of the world's great powers, but I think the probability of a large scale military catastrophe grows the more people's expectations of a positive future are dashed.
