The Coming Battle Over Egypt
As it becomes increasingly obvious that a democratic Egypt will mean an Islamist one, fissures are forming among neoconservative commentators about how to handle this. In one camp, we have those who are urging the Obama administration not to countenance an illiberal crackdown by Egypt's military (even advocating cutting off aid if the military does not allow democracy to progress). On the other hand, we hear voices urging the administration to back the military as it seeks to subvert Egypt's democracy and brutalizes its people - the better to keep the Islamists at bay.
What the Washington Post dubbed the "coming collision" between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian military will also highlight a debate in the U.S. about what its interests in Egypt actually are. For decades, the U.S. has viewed Egypt through the prism of the Cold War and Israeli security. Now that the Cold War is over and it doesn't matter whose "side" Egypt is on, sustaining the Camp David peace accords is the key "vital" interest the U.S. has in Egypt. In other words, U.S.-Egyptian relations are mediated mostly through Egyptian-Israeli relations.
If this remains the case, the Obama administration will either have to convince the Muslim Brotherhood that keeping the peace is in its own best interests (which it is likely already doing), or it will have to hold its tongue as the military subverts efforts at creating a true civilian democracy. It will be a challenge, to say the least, since the Brotherhood is already disavowing Camp David and even with U.S. support, the Egyptian military may not be able to hold the line. And even if the generals do succeed in subverting true civilian rule, the U.S. will then face the ire of the Egyptian people for being complicit in the Army's continued stranglehold on political life.
Good times ahead.
