Despite formal talks between government authorities and student protesters, the risk is growing that demonstrations in Hong Kong will be violently suppressed. Dozens have been injured thus far - possibly hundreds - and tensions between police and protesters are understandably running high. But rather than try to restore calm, Hong Kong chief executive C.Y. Leung made things worse in an interview with foreign media last week, signaling that force is not necessarily a last resort even as he asserted that "there could be a compromise."
Leung's comments were troubling in three important ways. First, in voicing concerns over the prospect of truly democratic elections, which he worried would grant Hong Kong's poorer residents too much influence, he signaled fear - perhaps for the first time since the protests began - of ceding power to the people. If Leung and the territory's tycoons do in fact see protesting students as a threat, then those leaders are more likely to see extreme actions as justifiable, even if they are regrettable.
In the interview, Leung also for the first time echoed Beijing's insistence that "foreign forces" are behind the street protests. "I didn't overhear it in a teahouse, and it's something that concerns us. It's something that we need to deal with." Leung may or may not actually believe this, but either way it provides an excuse to use force in ending the students' occupation of public areas. In Leung's fantasy world, countering the protesters is apparently not just about defending Beijing's preferred path for Hong Kong's political development - it's about resisting foreign intervention. And the young protesters that have taken to the streets are not fellow Hong Kongers, but are instead foreign agents or collaborators.
If police are being issued the "foreign forces" line, they are less likely to be reserved in their use of force. After all, they are now tasked not merely with enforcing the law, but with defending Hong Kong from a foreign threat. The students are no longer members of Hong Kong's youth, but are now a hostile "other" and may be treated as such.
Finally, in claiming that Hong Kong is "lucky" China has yet to intervene, Leung may already be attempting to manage the discourse surrounding a future crackdown. He can clear the streets while claiming he had to do so in order to avoid the possibility of something much worse: a Tiananmen-like bloodbath at the hands of the jackbooted People's Liberation Army or People's Armed Police.
Leung has set down his markers for what is possible: at best, vague hopes for an alteration of the makeup of Hong Kong's nominating committee; at worst, a forceful end to street protests.
Now, following weeks of deafening silence, perhaps it is time for U.S. President Barack Obama to set some markers of his own. He has yet to issue a single statement on the protests in Hong Kong, much to the pleasure of the communists in Beijing. But instead of fretting about the inconvenient timing of the demonstrations, which look like they will drag on through the APEC summit in the Chinese capital, the president could take advantage of the summit to throw his support behind Hong Kongers' democratic aspirations. He should make clear to Chinese President Xi Jinping that there will be a price to pay in the event of a crackdown, whether it comes at the hands of local or central authorities.
In particular, Obama should warn Xi that following a violent outcome, his first phone call will be to Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou, whom he will invite to visit the White House. Ma has offered full-throated support for Hong Kong's protesters and for the democratization of mainland China. The prospect of an Obama-Ma summit on how to achieve those ends would get China's attention and would demonstrate, for the first time, an American seriousness of purpose in responding to the crisis in Hong Kong.
Michael Mazza is a research fellow in Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
