The two coalition parties in power in the Netherlands are destined for crushing defeats in elections on March 18 that will determine the makeup of the new Senate. Polls show the opposition anti-Islam Freedom Party of Geert Wilders in the lead.
A big loss in the Senate could spell the end of the country's coalition government. More likely, the country's mainstream parties will take one look at the polls and decide not to call for new national elections - which could see formerly fringe parties take firm control - thus leaving an effectively delegitimized administration in charge. We take a look at the major parties involved in a country that is increasingly seen as a bellwether for Western European politics.
When the polls closed in the Dutch parliamentary elections of September 2012 and it turned out that two centrist parties had won massive victories, it was optimistically dubbed the "Defeat of the Extremists." Despite being ideological adversaries, the two winning parties - the center-left Social Democrats (PvdA) and the center-right conservative Liberals (VVD) - smoothly and quickly formed a coalition government. A bit too smoothly, according to many of their erstwhile voters.
The social-democratic PvdA and free-market liberals of the VVD sorted their coalition not by compromising on the issues, but by exchanging items on their political wish lists. The VVD, which had campaigned on a right-wing platform of crime-fighting, immigration, and integration, got what it wanted in those areas, while the PvdA was able to carry out its reformist agenda on health care, social security, and education.
Judging by recent polls and the 2014 municipal elections, voters of both parties seem not only disappointed - they are deeply disgusted.
PvdA
The PvdA is trying to rearrange the welfare state to adapt to the globalized economy while at the same time hewing close to its social-democratic roots. The PvdA was largely responsible for the establishment of the welfare state in the 1950s and 1960s. The reforms it is undertaking in health care and social security may seem necessary in order to create a financially manageable welfare state, as the party leadership has said, but these reforms are highly unpopular among the PvdA-voters of 2012.
Polls show that on average, a staggering two-thirds of them will vote for an opposition party to the left or right of the PvDA, or will simply stay home come March 18.
VVD
The VVD of Prime Minister Mark Rutte is a classic free-market liberal grouping on socio-economic issues. The party's main goal is to lower taxes by cutting the size of government and privatizing many of its functions. In this sense, the VVD is the classic rival of the social democrats. In recent years, thanks to a sense of disfranchisement among right-wing voters and the surge of right-wing, anti-Islam parties such the PVV of Geert Wilders, the VVD has been faced with a formidable opponent to its political right. Whenever the VVD veers to the right to stem its electoral losses to Wilders, it loses voters to centrist competitors, and vice versa. Now that the VVD is in government with the left-wing PvdA, it is hemorrhaging voters to Wilders. The VVD looks set to lose half of its 2012 voters, many of them to the PVV, but also to D66 and the CDA.
D66
In 2006, the social-market liberals of D66 received but a few seats in Parliament. Now D66 is vying with the PVV to become the biggest party in the Senate. D66 on one hand stands for classic economic liberal policies, emphasizing socio-economic reforms toward smaller government, and thus appealing to VVD voters. On the other hand it supports leftist socio-cultural policies (immigration, arts, green policies) that appeal to PvdA voters. It's working: the party is drawing large numbers of voters from both coalition parties while at the same time supporting the government through what it calls a strategy of "constructive opposition," helping carry amended reforms through the Senate.
PVV
Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) is poised to make a big electoral comeback after performing poorly in the past two elections. The PVV stands to become the biggest party in the Senate by standing by Wilders' fiery anti-Islam platform and uncompromising opposition to the coalition government, according to polls. Whenever the VVD turns right with a new tough-on-crime, tough-on-immigration proposition to lure back voters, Wilders simply outflanks them with an even tougher approach, moving into terrain where the VVD dare not tread.
Wilders' only problem is turnout. In the past two elections (Parliament in 2012 and European elections in 2014), the PVV underperformed compared to polls. Quite a number of PVV voters, many of whom feel disenfranchised by the political elite, on Election Day prove their disenfranchisement by staying home.
SP
The Socialist Party (SP) is positioned to the left of the socialdemocratic PvdA. The SP entered Parliament in the 1990s on what was essentially an anti-PvdA platform, accusing the Social Democrats of pandering to the right and betraying socialist ideals. In the past 20 years, the SP certainly made strong gains at the expense of the PvdA but it never was able to outnumber the Social Democrats. This is the year the SP seems destined to finally trump the PvdA in the Senate, albeit by a small margin.
CDA
The Christian Democrats have come a long way. From 1980 until 1994 the CDA, a federation of multiple smaller Christian Democratic parties, was always the biggest party. It took power again from 2002 until 2010, when it was decimated. The CDA is a party with a Christian identity in an increasingly Atheist country.
Yet it is still strong in the eastern, rural areas of the country where it hopes to lure back voters who crossed over to the VVD in the last elections. Railing against taxes and budget cuts to health care, the CDA is looking to make a strong comeback, possibly lining itself up to rule alongside the VVD and D66, should the Senate elections spark the collapse of the current government, and bring about new parliamentary elections.
(AP photo)
