The people have spoken - magnificently. Contrary to all expectations, an absolute majority for the Conservative Party emerged at the UK General Election held on May 7.
One of the causes of this was the remarkable collapse in support for the Conservatives' minority partner in the 2010-2015 governing Coalition. Savagely cut from 56 seats to 8, the Liberal Democrats indeed emerged as the biggest casualty of the election.
The second biggest casualty is the polling industry. There isn't enough humble pie in all the land for the pundits - from which I do not exempt myself! Lord Ashcroft performed what we all thought was a fantastic public service in spending millions on the most sophisticated polling program this country has ever seen: The return on that investment looks rather questionable now.
What was foreseen, and was realized in spades, was the success of the Scottish National Party. Driven by a remarkably resilient mix of nationalism and grievance, they managed at this election (even more than they did during the recent referendum on independence) to ride two horses at once. The SNP portrayed an upbeat optimism about the sunny uplands that would blossom under Scottish self-rule, while maintaining their more traditional, dour, chestbeating resentment of what they portray as a perpetually anti-Scottish Westminster (a resentment wholly impervious to any facts to the contrary) - a faraway government from which, despite fully and skilfully partaking in its games, they portray themselves as being apart.
To make this ironic point about the SNP's professional political status even more stark, the party's rise to overwhelming success in Scotland (now holding 56 of the 59 available seats) was driven in part by their possession of not one but two of the country's most impressive politicians: current leader Nicola Sturgeon, who emerged as a remarkably strong performer in the campaign despite not even being a candidate for a seat in Westminster, and Alex Salmond, the former party leader who has now returned to Westminster. More than anyone, Salmond has transformed British politics in this generation as he pushed his movement from the fringe to the mainstream.
Incidentally, one feature often remarked upon about the modern SNP movement is the army of "cybernats." These online activists may or may not actually be members of the party, or even aligned with the SNP, but they certainly demonstrate some of the more charmless aspects of nationalism: thuggish bile and aggression delivered toward any criticism of them or their movement; persistent assertion of an apparent (and apparently superior) uniqueness in their character and nature, which excludes both participation in and understanding of their politics by others; and a high-handed, immediate dismissal of any "outsider" who dares to comment on their nationalist movement - such will no doubt manifest itself in the comments here.
The Rough Justice of Britain's Voting System
In any case, a real question about our voting system re-emerges as a result of the election. The system suits an environment in which two parties predominate, but the fragmenting of our party landscape produces results many find hard to justify. With 4.7 percent of the national vote, the SNP got 56 Members of Parliament. UKIP got 12.6 percent of the vote - and one MP. That's the rough justice of First Past the Post - but as support for so-called minor parties continues to grow, just how rough can we allow that justice to be?
(That said, the United Kingdom held a referendum on an alternative voting system during the last Parliament; the case for reform was overwhelmingly defeated.)
An outright triumph
Returning to party political issues, Cameron's triumph is difficult to overstate. He has led his party since 2005; now he will face a wholly new crop of opponents, as all of his main rivals - Ed Miliband of Labour, Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage of UKIP - promptly resigned their party leaderships after the election results came in. Meanwhile, the leaders who remain in post - Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP, Natalie Bennett of the Greens, and Leanne Wood, socialist republican leader of the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru party - are not even in parliament. Two of them did not seek seats at this election. As an added bonus, former Labour Chancellor Ed Balls - something of a bête noir for the prime minister and for his close ally, Chancellor George Osborne - also lost his seat.
It is unfashionable to say so, but Nigel Farage's (temporary?) departure from the stage is to be lamented. Not just because it removes a character of great color and verve from the national stage, and not just because he speaks clearly and passionately for a hitherto voiceless part of our population. Most of all, Farage's departure is to be lamented because - notwithstanding the Conservative victory this week - if the broad right-of-center movement is to prevail in the United Kingdom, then in the long term, the rift on the political right must be healed. A City trader and an ex-Tory from the south, Farage's natural home is within a broad-church conservative party - a fact he sometimes hints at when talking about how it was the Tory Party that changed, not him. Farage's successor is very unlikely to be such a figure. Whether or not the party falls into post-election disarray, as some predict, his successor will most likely be much more absolutist, less inclined to reconciliation, probably less Tory in his soul. Farage is a man with whom a deal can be done. Most likely, his successor will not be.
What next?
So: what is to come in the new Parliament? A referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in due course. As I have discussed here before, securing long overdue boundary changes must sit very high on the agenda in the new Parliament - most likely in the first hundred days, when Cameron's political capital is strongest.
Within the parliamentary Conservative Party, it is time for the leadership to promote some figures on the party's political right for the sake of party unity. This is now all the more important given the fact that, because the Tories now govern as a single party, Cameron's second-term majority is actually smaller. Candidates should include Andrea Leadsom and Priti Patel (who have been generally loyal and are easy to promote); Graham Brady, Liam Fox, and Dominic Raab (for various reasons, these three are trickier); and finally, trickiest of all, Cameron's opponent for party leadership back in 2005, David Davis - now the standard bearer of the right.
There are policy issues that will promptly threaten the unity of the Conservative Party in government, too. The absence of the Liberals will almost certainly mean yet another attempt to introduce the Snoopers' Charter - which reflects the desire by government to retain data on the telephone calls, web browsing activity, and emails of British citizens. The charter treats us all as suspects and reverses the presumption of innocence. The proposal, beloved by power-grabbing bureaucrats, was defeated not once but three times in the course of the last Parliament. It splits some of the more libertarian-inclined party members - including, obviously, your correspondent - from the authoritarian securocrats who doggedly push this agenda.
Putting ideology to one side, in governing alone now instead of in coalition, Cameron is presented with a management problem. No longer needing to provide Liberal Democrats with ministerial roles, Cameron has 20 new jobs to allocate - and 100 MPs who are sure that they deserve them.
The appointment of defeated former Coalition ministers will attract accusations of cronyism, but that is misplaced. For government to work, patronage is essential to power - and not just for those on the up; the foot soldiers must see that a leadership rewards loyalty by rescuing the fallen, as well.
And what next for the left? They are in something of a quandary. Tony Blair had it right when he said that he suspected that the election would be a contest between a traditional left-wing party and a traditional right-wing party - with the traditional result. Anyone who thinks that Labour lost because they were not left-wing enough needs to examine the record. Leaving aside John Smith, who sadly died before he could contest an election while in the top job, Labour's last six leaders - Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Blair, Brown, and Miliband - can only boast three election victories between them; all three were won by the centrist Blair.
But all of this is "inside the beltway" analysis. Consider the big picture: It is all good for the Conservative Party and for the conservative movement. The victory in raw political combat is complete: Three opposition leaders felled in a day. Now the march of political ideas must resume, at a much higher tempo. Public spending must be reduced. Taxes must be cut. A referendum on our membership of the European Union must be held. For this was the clear and unambiguous agenda of the Conservative Party, and that agenda has prevailed. While aggressively opposed by a noisy, metropolitan, self-appointed elite, these policies have been unambiguously supported by our countrymen. These policies must be enacted. An election result this clear cannot mean otherwise.
(AP photo)
