The 2017 presidential election in France will be about more than just the fate of President Francois Hollande and the direction of the French state. Since France is one of the cornerstones of the European Union, whoever leads the country also has a big say about the future of a united Europe. The first round of regional elections on Dec. 6 delivered Hollande a blow, but it would be folly to assume that all is lost for the European Union in 2017.
With the votes of the first round counted, it is clear that the Front National party led by Marine Le Pen has made strong gains. The second round of voting takes place Dec. 13. Les Republicains, the center-right party led by former President Nicolas Sarkozy, came in second, while the Socialists of current president Francois Hollande lost roundly.
To prevent Le Pen from celebrating a second time, and to keep from offering her a picture-perfect start to her presidential campaign, the Socialist party has officially withdrawn from competing in several regions where Le Pen's list won in the first round, in hopes that leftist voters will rally to Sarkozy's party to deny Le Pen her ultimate victory in the second round.
Although many leftist voters would rather cut off their hand than use it to vote for Sarkozy's party, it is expected that at least some will vote just as such, in order to push back against the Front National. It might be enough to tip the scale in some regions.
Turnout was low, clocking in at barely 50 percent of the electorate -- roughly 30 percent lower than that recorded during presidential elections. It's not too far-fetched to assume that some of the leftist and moderate right-wing voters who stayed home during the first round may come out during the second round to bloody Le Pen's nose.
Yet Le Pen's victory on Dec. 6 -- however much polls predicted it well in advance -- does not mean France has changed overnight, nor that Europe should now fear that one of the European Union's mainstays has lost its light.
While it's true that the Front National has made strong gains with its anti-EU platform, it is not true that most French want to leave the euro currency or, for that matter, the European Union.
Research shows support in France for the European Union -- most French are moderate supporters. What has changed is that the European Union is perhaps no longer seen as an engine of prosperity. In the eyes of some -- and not only in France -- the European Union has in fact become an obstacle to growth and prosperity. The rules encapsulated in the Growth and Stability Pact that underpins the euro stipulate that a euro currency member cannot have a budget deficit that exceeds 3 percent of its Gross Domestic Product, while the national debt may not rise above 60 percent of GDP.
France scores well above both benchmarks. One plank of the Front National's platform promotes a return to the old French ways of fostering growth by expanding government expenses, thus expanding the role of the state in economic affairs, not reducing it. France and the other founding states of the European Union, however, agreed to the eurozone's strict pact. One of the reasons for Hollande's current unpopularity -- his approval ratings hover between 15 and 20 percent -- was his sudden announcement early in 2014 to cut €50 billion in spending, a move that was seen by many French, on the left and on the right, as caving to Brussels.
Many French loathe the lack of economic progress and the high unemployment that have marked the presidencies of both left and right. The unemployment rate hasn't landed below 7 per cent since 1983, and at the end of last quarter it rose to 10.4 percent, higher than the EU average. So, many a disgruntled Frenchman wonders what the European Union has done for France, and with hundreds of thousands of refugees knocking on Europe's door, the question is gaining prominence.
This is Marine Le Pen's third plank, aside from government-led economics and a firm anti-EU stance: a full stop on immigration. With the devastating terrorist attacks in Paris, this seems an easy solution to a difficult problem - even though France's terrorist problem appears to be home grown.
But even with the three vows of a return to bigger government, a departure from the euro, and a tough immigration policy, Le Pen cannot hope to become president in 2017. France is not Poland, where the hard-right conservative Law and Justice party recently won elections on the same set of ideas as that espoused by Le Pen. It would be wrong to take the qualms the Front National is addressing as a winning formula one could lay over all of Europe. As Dutch electoral cartographer Josse de Voogd shows here, Europe's populist right comes in many guises, with each party in every country winning on very different platforms, and sometimes even on regional issues that hardly resonate on the national level.
Ironically, it is Le Pen's stance on the euro and the European Union that may deny her the ultimate prize of the presidency. The part of the French electorate that supports all three of her main proposals is simply too small to carry her to the Elysée presidential palace. As polls like the Pew Research study cited above show, a vast majority of French voters want France to remain part of the euro currency, and members to the European Union.
Ultimately, leaders who carry the banner of unity win elections, while those who divide fail. George W. Bush knew this all too well when he famously donned the mantle of being "a uniter, not a divider" during his first presidential campaign. A successful political campaign is always one whose candidate succeeds in persuading the doubting voters to come to his or her side. Banking solely on those voters who are already in your column doesn't win you elections.
In this respect, Marine Le Pen is still too much of a divider. And this holds true for many populist right wing parties that are making waves while the ongoing influx of Syrian refugees dominates the headlines and many a European voter's mind.
(AP photo)
