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      <title>RealClearWorld - The Compass Blog</title>
      <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/</link>
      <description></description>
      <language>en</language>
      <copyright>Copyright 2012</copyright>
      <lastBuildDate>Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:48:13 -0600</lastBuildDate>
      <generator>http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/</generator>
      <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

            <item>
         <title>Terrorism Is a Tactic</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<blockquote>If the deprivation of rights is indeed the root cause of terrorism, why did all these people pursue their cause without resorting to terror? Put simply, because they were democrats, not terrorists. They believed in the sanctity of each human life, were committed to the ideals of liberty, and championed the values of democracy.

But those who practice terrorism do not believe in these things. In fact,  they believe in the very opposite. For them, the cause they espouse is so  all-encompassing, so total, that it justifies anything. It allows them to break any law, discard any moral code and trample all human rights in the dust. In their eyes, it permits them to indiscriminately murder and maim innocent men and women, and lets them blow up a bus full of children. - <a href="http://www.aish.com/ci/s/48898622.html">Benjamin Netanyahu</a></blockquote><blockquote>Israel is, after all, locked in a conflict with an Iranian regime that has made no bones about its intentions. Just last week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeated the standard Iranian line about Israel being a “cancerous tumor” that must be eradicated. Coming from a man who leads a regime based on religious fanaticism and which is dedicating massive amounts of the country’s resources towards achieving its nuclear ambitions, this is no idle threat. Under these circumstances, Israel is entirely justified in using whatever means it has to prevent Khameini’s government from achieving its genocidal ends. The MEK may be an unattractive ally, but with its Iranian members and infrastructure of support inside the country, it is an ideal weapon to use against the ayatollahs. - <a href="http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/02/09/iran-israel-peoples-muhahedin-terror-nuclear/">Jonathan Tobin</a></blockquote>

Several <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/mattduss/status/168015039771590656">people</a> have<a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/2012/02/09/how-terrorism-becomes-entirely-defensible/"> jumped on</a> Tobin for saying this, but I think he's actually making a point that many critics of neoconservatism (particularly post 9/11 neoconservatism) have been saying since the "war on terror" began: terrorism is a tactic, not an ideology. Tobin approves of terrorism when it's being used by Israel against Iran and disapproves of it when it's used by Palestinians against Israel. But Tobin is acknowledging that - contrary to Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence - terrorism itself is not an outgrowth of a "totalitarian" mindset but a tactical weapon to use against an adversary when other tools are unavailable or too risky.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/terrorism_is_a_tactic.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/terrorism_is_a_tactic.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Terrorism</category>
        
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:48:13 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Who Will Rule Syria?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<blockquote>Syria will have a post-Assad future.  That future could be in the hands of Qatari backed Salafis, Saudi-backed Islamists, or the Western world could have a say.  Sitting on the sidelines will ensure that we have as little as possible. -<a href="http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/obama-must-do-something-tangible-for-syria/"> Danielle Pletka</a></blockquote>

I think this is a good way of putting it, but it also raises an important question. Let's suppose the Western world has its say - would it be loud and decisive enough to marginalize the Qatari-backed Salafis or the Saudi-backed Islamists? Isn't it reasonable to conclude that there is a larger constituency inside Syria for what Qatar and Saudi Arabia are peddling than what the U.S. would offer? The unfolding events in Egypt would make me very leery about basing any U.S. strategy on the presumption that there is a broad constituency in any Middle Eastern country that would be keen to take its cue from the U.S. or Western powers.
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         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/who_will_rule_syria.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/who_will_rule_syria.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Syria</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Syria</category>
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 10:18:49 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Intervening in Syria Won&apos;t Promote Democracy</title>
         <description><![CDATA[I'm not sure how the U.S. should proceed with respect to the uprising in Syria, but I think the <a href="http://www.tnr.com/article/world/magazine/100502/damascus-intervene-syria-foreign-policy">claim</a>, on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, that those battling the Assad regime are democrats needs to be subjected to scrutiny. (See <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/08/don_t_count_on_a_syria_intervention">this</a>, for example, which equates American reluctance to overthrow Assad with a reluctance to promote democracy, as if the two things are in anyway related.)

There is absolutely no reason to believe that Syria's rebel forces will be any less brutal than the regime they are seeking to overthrow. There is no way to know how they will govern (and there is obviously no reason to trust declarations made explicitly to court foreign assistance). Nor is there any way U.S. or NATO assistance can ensure a democratic outcome. The U.S. couldn't steer Iraqi politics to its liking while it was an occupying power - it would have even less leverage in a post-Assad Syria.

None of this is to say that a democratic Syria is impossible or that those risking their lives against the Assad regime do not genuinely desire a more representative government. It's also not to suggest that there are no good reasons to intervene (in some fashion) in Syria's uprising. But for the case to be made with a modicum of intellectual honesty, it has to acknowledge that the nature of a post-Assad regime is absolutely unknowable and could produce human carnage far in excess of anything we're currently witnessing. ]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/intervening_in_syria_wont_promote_democracy.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/intervening_in_syria_wont_promote_democracy.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Syria</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Syria</category>
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:36:43 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Can the U.S. Bleed Iran Through Syria?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Dan Trombly <a href="http://slouchingcolumbia.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/how-many-divisions-does-moral-rectitude-have/">thinks it's possible</a>:

<blockquote>Given that rapidly overthrowing Assad without major overt military action from a broad coalition of forces is a pipe dream anyway, the United States should consider contingency plans in which it works through, rather than against, the specter of protracted civil war. To be able to bleed Iran in Syria would, relative to the risks involved, be a far more significant strategic opportunity against Iranian power relative to the investment and risk than would be a major overt campaign to overthrow Assad outright. The more blood and treasure Iran loses in Syria – even if Assad stays in power longer – the weaker Iran will be.</blockquote>
]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/can_the_us_bleed_iran_through_syria.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/can_the_us_bleed_iran_through_syria.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Iran</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Syria</category>
        
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:17:47 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>What Indian Ministers Do When They&apos;re Bored</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Not the<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/india-ministers-quit-caught-watching-porn-parliament-122642143.html"> people's business</a>:

<blockquote>Three Indian politicians from a morally conservative party, including a women's affairs minister, resigned on Wednesday after being caught watching pornography on a mobile phone during a session of state parliament.

News channels broadcast footage showing Karnataka state Minister for Cooperation Laxman Savadi sharing a porn clip with his colleague C.C. Patil, the minister for women and child development, while sitting in the state assembly.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/what_indian_ministers_do_when_they_are_bored.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/what_indian_ministers_do_when_they_are_bored.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">India</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">india</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:11:48 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Japan&apos;s Demographic Time Bomb</title>
         <description><![CDATA[The<em> Japan Times</em> <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/ed20120208a1.html">charts it</a>:

<blockquote>The estimate shows that Japan's population will shrink by around 30 percent to 86.74 million by 2060, and that the percentage of people aged 65 or older will increase from 23.0 percent in 2010 to 39.9 percent in 2060. People will also live longer than now. The average life expectancy will rise from 85.93 years in 2011 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.27 years to 84.19 years for men during the same period. Nursing care and medical services will become increasingly important. The government should show clearly the costs and benefits of such services so that people will be better prepared to accept the burden of higher social welfare costs.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/japans_demographic_time_bomb.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/japans_demographic_time_bomb.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Japan</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Japan</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 11:24:55 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>If the Socialist Candidate Wins in France...</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Hamish McRae <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-greece-is-being-screwed-down-so-sarkozy-can-meet-his-deadline-6655136.html">says</a> the consequences would be enormous:

<blockquote>Note that Angela Merkel has openly supported Nicolas Sarkozy in the forthcoming elections. Leaving aside the fact that such an endorsement may have unintended consequences, the motive and timing are interesting. Mr Sarkozy's principal rival for the presidency, François Hollande, has promised a reversal of the Sarkozy austerity measures, including bringing the retirement age back to 60 (from 62) and creating more than 200,000 state or state-funded jobs.

In short, it is perfectly plausible that France's next president will follow policies that are exactly the reverse of those now being urged on all the weaker eurozone states. Think of the consequences. A huge intellectual and practical rift would open up between Germany and France and the entire eurozone austerity programme would be undermined, maybe destroyed. Greece has to be screwed down now not just because of the financial deadline of bonds it cannot repay, but also because of the political deadline of the French elections.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/if_the_socialist_candidate_wins_in_france.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/if_the_socialist_candidate_wins_in_france.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Eurozone</category>
        
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 09:51:26 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Poll: Americans Endorse Drone Strikes Against Americans</title>
         <description><![CDATA[A new ABC News/Washington Post<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/drones-gitmo-and-drawdown-give-obama-foreign-policy-cred/"> poll</a> gives President Obama high marks in foreign policy:

<blockquote>Eighty-three percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Obama’s use of unmanned drones against terrorist suspects, 78 percent back the drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and 70 percent favor keeping open the Guantanamo Bay detention center – the latter a reversal by Obama of his 2008 campaign position.</blockquote>

It also notes American comfort with targeting fellow citizens for death by drone:

<blockquote>Two-thirds in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, also favor the use of unmanned drones specifically against American citizens in other countries who are terrorist suspects – potentially touchier legal territory.</blockquote>
Interesting to note that the poll specifically describes those targeted by drones as "suspects" - so there appears to be ample support for killing Americans even if their guilt is not firmly established.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/poll_americans_endorse_drone_strikes_against_americans.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/poll_americans_endorse_drone_strikes_against_americans.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Barack Obama</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Defense/Security</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Polls</category>
        
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:19:49 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Whom Do Britons Dislike?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[According to <a href="http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44370/britons-have-least-favourable-views-of-france-and-greece/">Angus Reid</a>, the French and Greeks don't rank so highly in British esteem:

<blockquote>In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,011 British adults, about a third of respondents say they have an unfavourable opinion of France (35%) and Greece (32%).

The difference between the proportion of favourable and unfavourable opinions for both Greece and France is only ten points. Half of Britons (49%) have a favourable view of Germany, while one-in-four (25%) disagree.

At least half of respondents hold favourable opinions of all of the other nations included in this survey, such as Luxembourg (53%), Portugal (55%), Italy (57%) and Belgium (also 57%). The highest ranked EEC members are Spain (63%), Ireland (67%), Denmark (also 67%) and the Netherlands (69%).</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/whom_do_britons_dislike.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/whom_do_britons_dislike.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Europe</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Eurozone</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">France</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Polls</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">United Kingdom</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Eurozone</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">France</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Greece</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">UK</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 06:28:39 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>India Riskier Than China?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Stephen Roach<a href="http://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/why-india-is-riskier-than-china/"> thinks so</a>:

<blockquote>Yet fears of hard landings for both economies are overblown, especially regarding China. Yes, China is paying a price for aggressive economic stimulus undertaken in the depths of the subprime crisis. The banking system funded the bulk of the additional spending, and thus is exposed to any deterioration in credit quality that may have arisen from such efforts. There are also concerns about frothy property markets and mounting inflation.

While none of these problems should be minimized, they are unlikely to trigger a hard landing. Long fixated on stability, Chinese policymakers have been quick to take preemptive action....

India is more problematic. As the only economy in Asia with a current-account deficit, its external funding problems can hardly be taken lightly. Like China, India’s economic-growth momentum is ebbing. But unlike China, the downshift is more pronounced – GDP growth fell through the 7% threshold in the third calendar-year quarter of 2011, and annual industrial output actually fell by 5.1% in October.

But the real problem is that, in contrast to China, Indian authorities have far less policy leeway. For starters, the rupee is in near free-fall. That means that the Reserve Bank of India – which has hiked its benchmark policy rate 13 times since the start of 2010 to deal with a still-serious inflation problem – can ill afford to ease monetary policy. Moreover, an outsize consolidated government budget deficit of around 9% of GDP limits India’s fiscal-policy discretion.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/india_riskier_than_china.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/india_riskier_than_china.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">China</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Global Economy</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">India</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">China</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">india</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:34:36 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Egyptians Don&apos;t Want American Economic Aid</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<img alt="egytpaid.gif" src="http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/egytpaid.gif" width="450" height="199" />

A <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/152471/Egyptians-Oppose-Economic-Aid.aspx">new survey</a> from Gallup shows that a broad majority of Egyptians do not want American economic aid. 

If this <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/07/world/africa/egypt-us-flap/index.html">NGO crisis continues</a> they may get their wish.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/egyptians_dont_want_american_aid.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/egyptians_dont_want_american_aid.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Egypt</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Polls</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Egypt</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 08:35:40 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Preemption and International Law</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Mario Loyola <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/290160/preemption-s-legal-troubles-mario-loyola">wants</a> international law to enshrine a doctrine of preventative war: 

<blockquote>The right of early preemption against threats like Iran’s nuclear program must become an international norm of general acceptance if preemptive threats are to have any deterrent value. Current norms — and the diplomatic strategies derived from them — have only incentivized Iran to sprint toward nuclear weapons. The strategy of increasingly onerous sanctions may be painful for Iran, but it implies that military strikes are off the table as long as further sanctions are in prospect. Thus, starting with the first Security Council sanctions in 2006, Iran knew that it had several risk-free years ahead of it to develop WMD.

The only principle that can justify early preemption against a WMD threat is one that calls on dangerous regimes to be transparent in their dispositions. What you could call “regime transparency” is the key. This is the cardinal principle that was all along missing in the Bush administration’s justification for war against Iraq. The burden of proof should have been on Saddam to demonstrate the non-threatening nature of his weapons programs. In the long run, such a burden could be met only by a regime that was itself essentially transparent, in which the business of government was conducted in an orderly and law-abiding way.</blockquote>

I don't see how this is a practical or desirable standard. Enshrining the doctrine of preventative war around inherently subjective and conditional terms such as "dangerous" or "non-transparent regimes" seems to open the door to all kinds of questions: dangerous to whom? How dangerous? What constitutes a lack of transparency? And so on. What, in other words, stops Russia from claiming the right to attack Georgia preemptively if it purchases U.S. military equipment? What is the normative case against China attacking Taiwan or Iran attacking Saudi Arabia if these states increase their lethality through U.S. arms purchases? 

Obviously, you can embrace a policy that states that only the United States has the prerogative to attack other countries on a preemptive basis, but I highly doubt many countries would be interested in enshrining that as "international" law. 

Loyola bases his argument on the existence of nuclear weapons:

<blockquote>The “general principle” for preemptive self-defense is that you can preempt an “imminent attack” but nothing more. That rule is ridiculous, and will sooner or later prove suicidal. Because of the instantly deliverable nature of nuclear weapons, waiting for firm intelligence of an imminent threat is a reckless game of chicken in which the claimed right of preemption is triggered only when it is almost too late to make any difference.</blockquote>

But what's new here? Nuclear weapons have been "instantly deliverable" for many decades now. The U.S. has been able to deal with this unfortunate reality rather well, as the record of nuclear wars and nuclear attacks since 1946 seems to suggest.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/preemption_and_international_law.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/preemption_and_international_law.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">US Foreign Policy</category>
        
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 08:21:52 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Poll: If Israel Attacks Iran, 48% of Americans Want U.S. to Help</title>
         <description><![CDATA[That's the headline from the <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/israel_the_middle_east/if_israel_attacks_iran_48_want_u_s_to_help_israel">latest Rasmussen poll</a>:

<blockquote>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 83% believe it is at least somewhat likely Iran will develop a nuclear weapon in the near future, including 50% who say that is Very Likely to happen. Only 11% say it’s Not Very or Not At All Likely Iran will develop a nuclear weapon soon.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/poll_if_israel_attacks_iran_48.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/poll_if_israel_attacks_iran_48.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Iran</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Israel</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Polls</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Iran</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">israel</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:04:37 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Would Turkey Intervene in Syria?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Emre Uslu <a href="http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-270565-would-turkey-intervene-in-syria.html">doesn't think so</a>:

<blockquote>Even if Turkey changes its position and is willing to intervene in Syria, Turkey would not form a collation with the Arab League to conduct such a military operation. There are two reasons for this. First, the Turkish political elite have a deep distrust of the West, especially since the EU abandoned Cyprus and left Turkey alone in many cases. Hence, Turkey would not intervene in Syria because the Turkish political elite think that such action would backfire and open new doors for other countries to intervene in Turkey’s domestic affairs if the Kurdish question gets out of control. For Turkey, there must be international recognition that international force is needed prior to intervention. It seems that US policy makers are trying to build a coalition that consists of the Arab League and Turkey, but this is not enough for Turkey to intervene.

Second, Turkey has its own fears. Especially Iranian influence over some proxy organizations in Turkey and Bashar al-Assad’s influence on Turkey’s Alevi community make Turkey think twice when it comes to a military intervention in Syria. Pro-Iranian Turkish journalists, for instance, have threatened Turkey, stating Turkey’s Alevi community is unhappy with Turkey’s policies regarding Syria.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/would_turkey_intervene_in_syria.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/would_turkey_intervene_in_syria.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Syria</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Turkey</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Syria</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Turkey</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:26:45 -0600</pubDate>
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         <title>Israel &amp; Iran</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Daniel Larison <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/03/ron-paul-campaign-denies-white-supremacist-ties-alleged-by-anonymous/">thinks I'm wrong</a> to guess that Israel will launch an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities. I think his response conflates a question of efficacy (is it a good idea?) and probability (would they do it?). I tend to agree that a strike is probably on balance a bad idea for many of the reasons highlighted in Larison's post. 

But I also think that when push comes to shove Israel is willing to tolerate the risks associated with a strike much more than they are willing to tolerate the risks (as they see them) of not attacking. 

<strong>Update:</strong> Noah Millman <a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/millman/2012/02/06/assessing-the-probability-of-an-israeli-strike-on-iran/">offers his take</a>:

<blockquote>I think it’s safe to say that there is, essentially, a near-universal consensus in Israel that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, that such a development would be profoundly threatening, and that Iran is unlikely to change course in response to diplomatic pressure. That doesn’t mean the Israeli consensus is right, but that is the overwhelming consensus. That being the case, the political risks to trying and failing are smaller than they might otherwise appear.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/israel_iran.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2012/02/israel_iran.html</guid>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Iran</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Israel</category>
        
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Iran</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Iraq</category>
                  <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Israel</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 08:58:54 -0600</pubDate>
      </item>
      
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