With the rollout of the Af-Pak policy review in the rearview mirror, the Obama administration's policy machinery moves from a war it wishes to conclude successfully in Afghanistan to one that it wishes to avoid in Iran. As important as Afghanistan and Pakistan are to U.S. national security, the outcome of President Obama's Iran policy review is likely to be even more consequential. Iran is inextricably linked to a spectrum of security challenges facing the United States and our allies, through its support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, Shia militants in Iraq, Hezbollah and Hamas in the Levant, and, most urgently, its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
While we must await the outcome of the policy review for a full understanding of the new administration's approach to Iran, early signals indicate a heavy focus on unconditional dialogue with the Iranian regime. Obama's Nowruz message to Iran was not a first -- President Bush gave similar addresses -- but it differed markedly from Bush's messages in rhetoric and substance. Obama, for example, refrained from any mention of human rights, addressed himself directly to the regime's leaders, and strongly hinted at a change in U.S. policy toward Iran. The other major U.S. initiative with respect to Iran is the upcoming international conference on Afghanistan, at which the administration hopes to engage with Iran.
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