King Abdullah's sudden decision to promote the Saudi interior minister, Prince Nayef, 76, his half-brother from the rival Sudairi clan, to the post of second deputy prime minister, follows a logical path. With the continuing ill health of the crown prince, the defence minister Prince Sultan, the appointment places Prince Nayef in direct line to the throne.Naming a likely successor to the crown prince while he is still alive attests to King Abdullah's decision at the age of 86 to keep the regime on an even keel and safe from shocks. In addition, it continues a tradition of de facto management practices by senior Saudi princes when one of them is ill: Prince Nayef has been helping to oversee the government since Prince Sultan suffered a relapse five months ago.
Many analysts are looking at Saudi succession issues with increasing interest. The key question was whether King Abdullah would skip to the grandsons of the dynasty's founder, Ibn Saud. The answer appears to be no. There have been signals that Prince Nayef was about to be placed in the successor's slot: for example, in King Abdullah's order appointing his son Mashal governor of the strategic Najran province on the Yemeni border, appended to the royal signature were the words “Recommended by Prince Nayef”. According to Saudi practice, a royal order has only one signature.
Also, in the past two weeks Prince Nayef has been vocal in his views: in many ways he sounded as if he were building a policy platform. On the subject of the advisory Shura Council, for example, he said: “Appointing the members always ensures that the best are selected. If it was to happen through elections, the members would not have had been this competent.” Asked if that could include women, he said: “I don't see the need for that.”
document.write('');
Prince Nayef also addressed current Shiite protests in the kingdom, saying that after February's confrontations in Medina between religious police and Shiite pilgrims, the Shiite minority must respect Salafi Sunnism. He declared that there was no crackdown on Shiites, and that both Shiites and Sunnis had been arrested: “It is not a matter of targeting Shiites or others as much as it is a matter of dealing with anyone who breaks the law or tries to cause offence in the country, especially in the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina.”
In addition, Prince Naif observed that Saudi Arabia had attracted international praise for its successful campaign to root out terrorism: “The kingdom is in the forefront of countries that are capable of challenging terrorism and defeating its plots. Many foreign delegations have visited the kingdom to learn from our experience in fighting terror. Many militants have abandoned their deviant ways after attending counselling programmes.”
It is important to point out that Prince Nayef is the closest of any senior Al Saud to the more religious elements of Saudi society. He used his connections as interior minister in negotiations with al Qa'eda leaders and their associates in the Saudi clerical establishment to persuade them to accept the rulings of the royal court. And should he eventually accede to the throne, he would be the most conservative Saudi monarch to date. His 34 years in charge of internal security proved him to be a staunch defender of the Saudi throne's absolute rule in the kingdom, an attribute that cannot be ignored and confirms his candidacy.
Of course, Prince Nayef remains only one of a number of princes in the royal family who could become crown prince. In 2006 King Abudullah created a new mechanism to decide, along with himself, who will be his successor. The Allegiance Committee comprises 35 princes and is chaired by Prince Mishal bin Abdulaziz, a first-generation senior royal who plays a key role in the building and supervising of consensus.
The death of Prince Sultan would trigger the first meeting of the Committee, which will take place in secret. The
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document.write(''); 'Heir-in-waiting' will keep Saudi on an even keel
Theodore Karasik
Last Updated: April 02. 2009 8:30AM UAE / April 2. 2009 4:30AM GMT
King Abdullah's sudden decision to promote the Saudi interior minister, Prince Nayef, 76, his half-brother from the rival Sudairi clan, to the post of second deputy prime minister, follows a logical path. With the continuing ill health of the crown prince, the defence minister Prince Sultan, the appointment places Prince Nayef in direct line to the throne.Naming a likely successor to the crown prince while he is still alive attests to King Abdullah's decision at the age of 86 to keep the regime on an even keel and safe from shocks. In addition, it continues a tradition of de facto management practices by senior Saudi princes when one of them is ill: Prince Nayef has been helping to oversee the government since Prince Sultan suffered a relapse five months ago.
Many analysts are looking at Saudi succession issues with increasing interest. The key question was whether King Abdullah would skip to the grandsons of the dynasty's founder, Ibn Saud. The answer appears to be no. There have been signals that Prince Nayef was about to be placed in the successor's slot: for example, in King Abdullah's order appointing his son Mashal governor of the strategic Najran province on the Yemeni border, appended to the royal signature were the words “Recommended by Prince Nayef”. According to Saudi practice, a royal order has only one signature.
Also, in the past two weeks Prince Nayef has been vocal in his views: in many ways he sounded as if he were building a policy platform. On the subject of the advisory Shura Council, for example, he said: “Appointing the members always ensures that the best are selected. If it was to happen through elections, the members would not have had been this competent.” Asked if that could include women, he said: “I don't see the need for that.”
document.write('');
Prince Nayef also addressed current Shiite protests in the kingdom, saying that after February's confrontations in Medina between religious police and Shiite pilgrims, the Shiite minority must respect Salafi Sunnism. He declared that there was no crackdown on Shiites, and that both Shiites and Sunnis had been arrested: “It is not a matter of targeting Shiites or others as much as it is a matter of dealing with anyone who breaks the law or tries to cause offence in the country, especially in the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina.”
In addition, Prince Naif observed that Saudi Arabia had attracted international praise for its successful campaign to root out terrorism: “The kingdom is in the forefront of countries that are capable of challenging terrorism and defeating its plots. Many foreign delegations have visited the kingdom to learn from our experience in fighting terror. Many militants have abandoned their deviant ways after attending counselling programmes.”
It is important to point out that Prince Nayef is the closest of any senior Al Saud to the more religious elements of Saudi society. He used his connections as interior minister in negotiations with al Qa'eda leaders and their associates in the Saudi clerical establishment to persuade them to accept the rulings of the royal court. And should he eventually accede to the throne, he would be the most conservative Saudi monarch to date. His 34 years in charge of internal security proved him to be a staunch defender of the Saudi throne's absolute rule in the kingdom, an attribute that cannot be ignored and confirms his candidacy.
Of course, Prince Nayef remains only one of a number of princes in the royal family who could become crown prince. In 2006 King Abudullah created a new mechanism to decide, along with himself, who will be his successor. The Allegiance Committee comprises 35 princes and is chaired by Prince Mishal bin Abdulaziz, a first-generation senior royal who plays a key role in the building and supervising of consensus.
The death of Prince Sultan would trigger the first meeting of the Committee, which will take place in secret. The king will suggest three candidates; if there is no unanimous agreement, there will be a vote. Apparently mindful of the precarious health of some of the princes, the new system also calls for a temporary council of five princes to lead the country if neither the king nor the crown prince is deemed fit to rule for medical reasons.
The implications of the appointment for the future need to be thought out. First and foremost is the age issue: if the succession runs the course of the qualified first-generation princes, then there may be many changes ahead. Second is Prince Nayef's foreign policy outlook. He may be able to help the Obama administration, which is seeking to open doors for ending the Afghanistan-Pakistan problem, making contact with Islamic radical institutions and circles close to al Qa'eda and the Taliban. In terms of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there will probably be a shake-up. King Abdullah, the reformer, is more open to accepting the Jewish state, but Prince Nayef is likely to adopt a less accommodating stance.
In addition, Prince Nayef regards Iran as a foe and is more ready to contest the expansion of Iranian influence in the Gulf than the more accommodating King Abdullah: co-operation and accommodation may give way to more confrontation. Overall, Prince Nayef will still defend the kingdom at all costs and will preserve the continuity of the Al Saud system of governance.Dr Theodore Karasik is director of research and development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai
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King Abdullah's sudden decision to promote the Saudi interior minister, Prince Nayef, 76, his half-brother from the rival Sudairi clan, to the post of second deputy prime minister, follows a logical path. With the continuing ill health of the crown prince, the defence minister Prince Sultan, the appointment places Prince Nayef in direct line to the throne.Naming a likely successor to the crown prince while he is still alive attests to King Abdullah's decision at the age of 86 to keep the regime on an even keel and safe from shocks. In addition, it continues a tradition of de facto management practices by senior Saudi princes when one of them is ill: Prince Nayef has been helping to oversee the government since Prince Sultan suffered a relapse five months ago.
Many analysts are looking at Saudi succession issues with increasing interest. The key question was whether King Abdullah would skip to the grandsons of the dynasty's founder, Ibn Saud. The answer appears to be no. There have been signals that Prince Nayef was about to be placed in the successor's slot: for example, in King Abdullah's order appointing his son Mashal governor of the strategic Najran province on the Yemeni border, appended to the royal signature were the words “Recommended by Prince Nayef”. According to Saudi practice, a royal order has only one signature.
Also, in the past two weeks Prince Nayef has been vocal in his views: in many ways he sounded as if he were building a policy platform. On the subject of the advisory Shura Council, for example, he said: “Appointing the members always ensures that the best are selected. If it was to happen through elections, the members would not have had been this competent.” Asked if that could include women, he said: “I don't see the need for that.”
Prince Nayef also addressed current Shiite protests in the kingdom, saying that after February's confrontations in Medina between religious police and Shiite pilgrims, the Shiite minority must respect Salafi Sunnism. He declared that there was no crackdown on Shiites, and that both Shiites and Sunnis had been arrested: “It is not a matter of targeting Shiites or others as much as it is a matter of dealing with anyone who breaks the law or tries to cause offence in the country, especially in the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina.”
In addition, Prince Naif observed that Saudi Arabia had attracted international praise for its successful campaign to root out terrorism: “The kingdom is in the forefront of countries that are capable of challenging terrorism and defeating its plots. Many foreign delegations have visited the kingdom to learn from our experience in fighting terror. Many militants have abandoned their deviant ways after attending counselling programmes.”
It is important to point out that Prince Nayef is the closest of any senior Al Saud to the more religious elements of Saudi society. He used his connections as interior minister in negotiations with al Qa'eda leaders and their associates in the Saudi clerical establishment to persuade them to accept the rulings of the royal court. And should he eventually accede to the throne, he would be the most conservative Saudi monarch to date. His 34 years in charge of internal security proved him to be a staunch defender of the Saudi throne's absolute rule in the kingdom, an attribute that cannot be ignored and confirms his candidacy.
Of course, Prince Nayef remains only one of a number of princes in the royal family who could become crown prince. In 2006 King Abudullah created a new mechanism to decide, along with himself, who will be his successor. The Allegiance Committee comprises 35 princes and is chaired by Prince Mishal bin Abdulaziz, a first-generation senior royal who plays a key role in the building and supervising of consensus.
The death of Prince Sultan would trigger the first meeting of the Committee, which will take place in secret. The king will suggest three candidates; if there is no unanimous agreement, there will be a vote. Apparently mindful of the precarious health of some of the princes, the new system also calls for a temporary council of five princes to lead the country if neither the king nor the crown prince is deemed fit to rule for medical reasons.
The implications of the appointment for the future need to be thought out. First and foremost is the age issue: if the succession runs the course of the qualified first-generation princes, then there may be many changes ahead. Second is Prince Nayef's foreign policy outlook. He may be able to help the Obama administration, which is seeking to open doors for ending the Afghanistan-Pakistan problem, making contact with Islamic radical institutions and circles close to al Qa'eda and the Taliban. In terms of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there will probably be a shake-up. King Abdullah, the reformer, is more open to accepting the Jewish state, but Prince Nayef is likely to adopt a less accommodating stance.
In addition, Prince Nayef regards Iran as a foe and is more ready to contest the expansion of Iranian influence in the Gulf than the more accommodating King Abdullah: co-operation and accommodation may give way to more confrontation. Overall, Prince Nayef will still defend the kingdom at all costs and will preserve the continuity of the Al Saud system of governance.Dr Theodore Karasik is director of research and development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai
Have your say
Top stories Abu Dhabi raises $3bn through bond issue Five-minute solution for public transport Interactive: The changing world Obama uses charm amid chaos '19 failed attempts' on Yamadayev High fliers Zahid swings game UAE's way Your View Has having access to a nursery at work made life easier for you?Do you think monitors will improve the safety of school bus riders?How has the weather affected you?How do you feel about tuition increases being dependent on school performance? What do you think Abu Dhabi's taxi inspectors need to focus on? Most popular stories Most read Most e-mailed Suspects questioned over Dubai killing Why Dubai always confounds the oracles of doom Deadline for ID cards brings frustration Master transport plan for Abu Dhabi Reem Island towers to go on sale Netanyahu challenges Obama on Iran London G20 summit sparks riot Court backs expulsion of Muslim pupil over beard Pakistan seeks UAE aid Shearer to answer Newcastle SOS Investors take heart from Dubai court ruling Coldplay frontman Martin scoffs at rain Ajman, where trust in developers is at a premium Purification rites Schools fear exodus of pupils as jobs slide Chechen man killed in Dubai Storms batter UAE and more on way Tamweel chief wants urgent property aid Emiratisation process hampered by 'lack of reliable data' Decision time for Emirates nuclear plan var countries=new ddtabcontent("countrytabs") countries.setpersist(true) countries.setselectedClassTarget("link") //"link" or "linkparent" countries.init() Products & Services Your View e-polls e-Paper RSS Feeds Home News Business Sport About us Contact us Terms & Conditions FAQ Site map
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