As Nato's partners meet in Strasbourg, the strategic confusion over its role in Afghanistan threaten its raison d'etre
How many divisions has the Pope, Stalin once asked. In the same vein, the present incumbents of the Kremlin might ask how many divisions has Nato, not in the measure of combat power but the divisions of the aims and ambitions of the 26-member organisation, which is now to become 28 with the addition of Croatia and Albania.
The 60th birthday party of the alliance, presided over by President Obama in Strasbourg this weekend, should be a pretty raucous affair if the members give voice to their true wishes and beliefs. There is more than a suspicion that the organisation has failed to grow beyond its cold war purpose, and, as David Hearst has suggested here, may be passing its sell-by date.
The dread words were uttered by Roger Cohen in the New York Times/IHT in his summary of the Obama whirlwind tour through UK and Europe: "It is safe to say that it's closer to the end than the beginning of its life."
Nato was founded in 1949 as the Soviet Union and its cluster of eastern European satellites were flexing their muscles, and nuclear confrontation was a real possibility. As the founding documents state explicitly, this was a defensive alliance to defend northern Europe and America against military attack. Once confrontation between the western allies of Nato and the Warsaw pact ceased, the exam question was: could an essentially defensive organisation retool itself for other military and non-military tasks and roles ?
After 20 years, the question has not been answered. Today, the alliance is involved in a war along the Hindu Kush, which could not with the wildest stretch of the imagination be described as an essential part of the north European security zone "“ "from the Atlantic to the Urals", according to the old formula. How difficult those in uniform and suits are finding it to work out a new effectiveness for a new age is described at length in the Economist's essay on the 60th anniversary, which comes to no firm conclusion.
Quite apart from the Afghan issue, which is fast becoming the Achilles' heel of western military cooperation, there are worries about the aims and purposes of the newer allies in eastern Europe. The Polish foreign minister, Radek Sikorsky, believes Nato should concentrate less on Afghanistan and more on containing and confronting resurgent Russia. Against that, western European critics believe it is folly to offer the prospect of eventual membership to Ukraine and Georgia, since few allies would agree to come to their defence against Russia, despite the principle of an attack against one is an attack against all in Article 5 of the founding charter.
Inadvertently, Sikorsky and the Economist may be on to something in their worries about security in and around the continent of Europe. It is quite evident that the US will not overburden itself with the concerns of even its staunchest partners. The Mediterranean, Africa and even the Indian ocean will be areas in which the Europeans may have to operate alone without the US. They now need to prepare for this. The argument from the French about the need for a separate European operational and planning headquarters, outside the Nato HQ at Shape and above national planning HQs like the French and British, is fast becoming incontrovertible. In the IHT's letter from Europe this week, Judy Dempsey rehearses the arguments about why this may actually be an economy for the lead European military players like Britain and France.
Ten years ago, when Nato celebrated its 50th birthday in Washington, the alliance was deep into its first major military operation "“ the 78-day bombing raid on Serbia and Kosovo. The alliance agreed "a new strategic concept" to allow it to indulge in "expeditionary operations" "“ peacekeeping as well as war-fighting missions, humanitarian relief, and no doubt, time and weather permitting, motherhood and apple pie. Now, Nato is involved in a far more hazardous and uncertain war. The cry has gone up for another new strategic concept. No one seems to know what this might be, so the Nato management has outsourced this for further study.
The two Afghan operations, Nato's mission to support the Karzai government by leading the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) and the American-led and -dominated Operation Enduring Freedom against al-Qaida and its Taliban allies, highlight the fundamental contradiction that now haunts the alliance. Both operations are headed by the same American commander, currently General David McKiernan. Isaf now comprises 41 nations, of which the Nato nations now have 76 "national caveats" stating that their troops will opt out of Nato commands but obey their own national governments. It's no way to run a railroad, let alone a counter-insurgency campaign.
For the serious fighting against the al-Qaida-Taliban alliance, General McKiernan can ignore Nato altogether. Here, he follows a line of command through the senior US regional commander, General David Petraeus, to the Pentagon and White House. In this fight, the US is largely going it alone "“ and working largely to its own national agenda. Allies like Britain and France now lag behind the Americans in the field "“ particularly in technologies like communications and data transmission. With the tendency to operate increasingly inside the Pakistan border, the Americans are touching on the UK's internal security dilemmas, given the significant Pakistani presence in Britain.
In Strasbourg, Mr Obama might well reflect on the phrase with which his favourite president, Abraham Lincoln, launched his presidential bid: "A house divided against itself cannot stand."
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